Yes, Major League Baseball is a game. It is a game played by millionaires to the benefit of billionaires. But it also is a business. AF clearly went out of his comfort zone with Mookie Betts. But he was the long-term star needed for this team after the 2019 debacle. So $365MM for 13 years was what it took to extend Mookie through his 39 year old season. What can go wrong.
The first three years of the contract (Age 27-29) Mookie’s fWAR and value were as follows:
- 2020 – 2.8 fWAR – $22.4MM
- 2021 – 3.8 fWAR – $30.6MM
- 2022 – 6.6 fWAR – $52.8MM
Thus Mookie has theoretically earned $105.8MM of his $365MM, but in his prime years, with a body that has shown some deterioration. His salary for the next 10 years:
- 2023 – Age 30 – $20MM
- 2024 – Age 31 – $25MM
- 2025 – Age 32 – $25MM
- 2026 – Age 33 – $25MM
- 2027 – Age 34 – $25MM
- 2028 – Age 35 – $30MM
- 2029 – Age 36 – $30MM
- 2030 – Age 37 – $30MM
- 2031 – Age 38 – $27.5MM
- 2032 – Age 39 – $27.5MM
$265MM due Mookie over the next 10 years. He will need to produce at 33.13 fWAR over the next 10 years.
But it appears that AF does not want to go down that course again. He paid Trevor Bauer a huge number but for only three years. Just how upset do you think management would be if they thought they would have to pay Bauer for three – four more years instead of one.
They scaled down the years for Freddie to 6. In 2022, Freddie had a 7.1 fWAR that generated $56.7MM of value in production. Theoretically, Freddie needs to generate $105.30MM over the remaining 5 years on his contract. Freddie needs to produce a 13.6 fWAR over the next five years, or average 2.63 fWAR.
Of Freddie and Mookie, who has the better chance with their production value equating to their monetary value?
Is it any wonder why AF was hesitant to go 11-13 years for Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, or Xander Bogaerts? He wasn’t willing to pay Corey Seager 10 years, and Seager was homegrown. AF will pay high AAV’s with the ability to get out of the contract sooner. There is no way AF was ever going to sign Carlos Rodón for 6 years. AF/BG signed Noah Syndergaard $13.5MM for one year, vs $39MM for three years for Tyler Anderson. Could it be that AF/BG believe Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, Ryan Pepiot, Nick Nastrini, and Emmet Sheehan need to have a clear path to MLB? It appears more likely that AF will continue with the one year contracts to supplement the homegrown pitchers.
The team drafts far more pitchers than any other position, and have the requisite ability to develop them. They can afford to wait for their pitchers to develop to be ML pitchers because of the number of pitchers close to MLB that they have.
Not so much for position players. The Dodgers system is thin at most positions other than Catchers, DH, and utility players. Who is that “can’t miss” SS or CF in the system? The system has depth and players who can play those positions, but not one that owns it. So the Dodgers need to supplement their team with elite position players like Mookie and Freddie.
However, AF is not going to tie his hands with multiple boat anchor contracts. He has one potential in Mookie, so to have another is not something I would expect AF to do. The question now is, how many years will he offer Julio Urías, and realistically expect him to sign? With Scott Boras as his agent, I do not like the odds.
Will AF go back to the Mookie Model next year for Shohei Ohtani?
Albert Pujols went from 9 WAR at age 29 to 1.6 WAR at age 33. If it can happen to him it can happen to anybody. We’ve got Mookie. He’s 30 now, and we’ve got him at $30m+ AAV until he’s 39. We’ve got Freddie at $27m for 5 more years. Will they last? Who knew. Front loaded contracts are the way to go if you can get them. And it would appear guys like Verlander, 5.9 WAR at 39, are the rare exception. Will he do it again? Scherzer at 38? I don’t think so and he’s owed $86 million.
Obviously $300+ million payroll can put interesting lineups on the field and butts in seats. But $300+ million guarantees nothing in October.
Our owners aren’t likely to go the Cohen route. I’m not sure what the organizational plan might be after this, Plan B year. Wait and see I guess.
Jeff, I agree their plan A is not to sign big long term contracts. I just always have to laugh and shake my head when I read all the stories about how they are “in” on some player or they need to do spend big.
They have a good farm sysyem and need to use it!
Jeff, I really appreciate your logic. The more I read your articles the better it gets. The long-term contracts have to hit a wall some time. They make no sense when running a business. You should assume the majority of teams have already figured this out and soon the others will follow after they watch what happens to the Mets. AF is usually ahead of the trends, and I hope he goes back to the home-grown approach and maybe this year is the start. I find it much easier to get excited about our rookies that some over-paid hired gun for a year! The perfect example for me was Trea Turner. Good player but just couldn’t get excited about him and no matter how good he is I won’t miss him- he has no emotion. Thanks for your excellent insight, it is something I look forward to.
Hey Jeff. I’ve decided to come out of hiding, at least on your site, and share a couple of thoughts. Andrew Friedman famously said something to the effect that if you used only logic to decide on signing free agents that you would come in 3rd in any efforts to obtain one. Long term deals are like sunk business costs – they can be a cost of doing business. Looked at another way, it is apparently what you have to pay to obtain the player that you want, once you decide that you want him.
The formula for success is growing your own and then filling in the gaps with players from other teams, obtained by free agency, trades and fixing other veterans.
Looked at another way, the Dodgers have major gaps that they have not had in a decade. For example, if defense up the middle is a key to run prevention, how does a defense of Lux and Muncy at SS and 2B and some kind of platoon with Taylor, Thompson and Outman look? Or how does an infield of Vargas at 3B, Lux at SS and Muncy at 2B look? I have been a fan since the 1965 season and I cannot remember an infield that is likely to be so defensively challenged.
Or how about the Dodgers OF? Yeah, you have Betts in RF, but the other 2 spots will be filled by some amalgamation of Thompson, Taylor, Outman and Vargas.
Given the nature of these holes, what have the Dodgers done to fill them in? Nothing this year – at least not yet. There are no free agents who are difference makers available. So does Friedman have some trade up his sleeve? Or will the Dodgers go limping into the season with weaknesses at 3B, 2B, LF and CF?
Is there a direct relationship between payroll and where a team drafts? It does id that high payroll results in finishing with a good win/loss record.
Signing a free agent who has been offered a QO hurts a team’s drafts and reduces international signing budgets.
It’s hard to add home grown talent if a team keeps signing costly free agents.
This year it seems like teams are reluctant to trade top players for prospects. And if they do an example would be the Pirates asking for teams to gut their prospect list for a player that is not a superstar.
Good stuff Jeff. I have little problem with the way AF does business now. I have seen the way he works over the last several seasons and other than Mookie and Freeman, there have been no contracts over 4 years. I think they would be wise to lock up Smith, and I thought they should have done the same with Urias a few years ago. But I am just a fan, and I know little of the inside workings of the team. As for the defensive side of the ball this year, well, if the Dodgers believe in Lux, I guess I will have to believe also. I think and believe both Thompson and Outman can be very good defensively in center. As good as Belli? Most likely not. But more than average. RF defense with Mookie is great. LF defense will be the one I am looking at come spring. Heyward is a very good defensive outfielder, and if he can rediscover his stroke, that will be a plus. 3rd and 2nd are question marks. Hi Rick, nice to see a post from you.
Texas has signed Nathan Eovaldi for 2 years and $34MM, while Boston signed Corey Kluber to a one year $10MM deal. Eovaldi does have a $20MM vesting option for 2025, plus other incentives that can take the contract to $63MM.
With the addition of Eovaldi, the Rangers rotation while not elite, is still formidable:
· Jacob deGrom
· Martín Pérez
· Jon Gray
· Nathan Eovaldi
· Andrew Heaney
· Jake Odorizzi
The Rangers are not good enough to catch Houston, but they could challenge Seattle for wild card, and IMO are better than LAA.
With Eovaldi and Kluber now signed, the top free agent list from MLBTR is down to four of their original top 50.
· LF – Jurickson Profar (#33)
· RP – Andrew Chafin (#39)
· 2B/SS – Jean Segura (#40)
· SP – Michael Wacha (#41)
I still think the Dodgers could be interested in a couple of lesser rated relievers…LHRP Matt Moore (34) and RHRP Michael Fulmer (30).
I would not mind if the Dodgers were able to sign Michael Wacha. He could be another pupil for Mark Prior. If Wacha was willing to work on a one year deal, he might have been signed. But he has signed three consecutive one year deals and is looking for a multi-year deal.
Giants have dfa’d Tommy LaStella. His last two years were pretty mediocre but before that he had some nice years for the Cubs and Angels among others.
He can play second and third base and has had some nice OBP throughout his career (before the last couple of years).
He may just be on the downward slope of his career, but he seems like the kind of guy AF might roll the dice with.
Ron Cey went on Dodgernation and had some harsh but fair words about their NLDS loss to the Padres. I trust the Penguin’s view a lot, and he said some things that most of us were saying before and after the debacle. No clutch hitting, had not played a game of much importance for almost two months, the 5 day layoff affected their sharpness, and most likely, once they were trailing, they failed to execute and they were pressing. Too much put on the top four hitters in the lineup and too man Mendoza line performers at the bottom. Very astute analysis from someone who has been there.
As for Ohtani next year, some are predicting a contract north of 400 million. Is anyone here really comfortable with a contract that large? I question the need. Ohtani is basically a DH type player who can pitch. But is he all by himself a difference maker?
Hi, wondering if I can come in and join the party?
The JDM contract is now official and Jake Reed has once again drawn the short straw and been DFA’d.
10 MLB umpires are retiring at the end of the month. Well-respected crew chiefs Ted Barrett, Greg Gibson, Tom Hallion, Sam Holbrook, Jerry Meals, Jim Reynolds and Bill Welke are among the group to retire, while Marty Foster, Paul Nauert and Tim Timmons will also call it a career.
If you are looking for a job:
Attention, Please:
The San Diego Padres, while not necessarily trying to trade Trent Grisham and or Ha-Seong Kim, are willing to listen to trade offers.
Anybody here interested in either player? What do you offer?
P.S. Things are slow right now so don’t ruin my day by telling me that Preller won’t trade with us.