The Winter Meetings have come to a busy end. There were 4 days of crazy rumors, and some of them actually came to fruition. By my count, 14 of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents were signed to new contracts during the past 4 days. This brings the total of MLBTR’s top 50 signed to 24. The projected committed contract totals nearly $1.5B. Two new $300MM players (Aaron Judge and Trea Turner), plus another at $280MM (Xander Bogaerts). There figures to be one more $300MM player in Carlos Correa. The Hot Stove League is truly living up to the name.
In addition, 9 other free agents outside of the top 50 signed, bringing that total 17. If my math is right that means that 41 free agents have signed new contracts since the World Series (4 weeks).
The Dodgers? Yep! They were represented. Clayton Kershaw and Shelby Miller are the current signed LAD free agents. The Dodgers have lost: Trea Turner, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Cody Bellinger, Chris Martin, Craig Kimbrel, Joey Gallo, Hanser Alberto, and possibly Justin Turner.
The added players to the roster thus far to offset those lost players? Dustin May and Shelby Miller. They still have 3 available roster spots on the 40 man. Even with the same roster as they had last year, the chances of 111 wins would be remote. With the new configuration, the combined fWAR lost was 18.1 while the fWAR gained was 0.4.
fWAR Lost:
- Trea Turner – 6.3
- Tyler Anderson – 4.0
- Justin Turner – 2.4
- Cody Bellinger – 1.7
- Chris Martin – 1.6
- Andrew Heaney – 1.1
- Craig Kimbrel – 0.9
- Joey Gallo – 0.6
- Hanser Alberto – (-0.5)
fWAR Gained:
- Shelby Miller – 0.4
How many fWAR will be gained from Dustin May, Miguel Vargas, James Outman, Michael Busch, Ryan Pepiot, Jacob Amaya, and Andy Pages?
The current LAD AAV payroll sits at $187MM. That figure does not consider what 2023 salary Trevor Bauer will be allocated once (if) his suspension is lifted. His AAV for 2023 sits at $34MM. If Bauer’s suspension is lifted, the LAD AAV payroll will move to $221MM…if he chooses not to opt out. If he does opt out, the LAD hit will be $15MM. Would Bauer feel lucky enough to believe some team will pay him more than $17MM next year? Taijuan Walker got $18MM/year for 4 years. Andrew Heaney could earn $18.5MM/year for 2 years if he reached all of his incentives. Jameson Taillon will receive $17MM/year for 4 years. Bauer and his agents believe he is worth what those pitchers are making.
The off season is certainly not over. There are several players still available. The costlier ones are not going to wait until LAD finds out about the Bauer arbitration decision, but there will still be others.
Top 50 MLBTR starting pitcher FA’s still available:
- Carlos Rodón (QO)
- Koudai Senga
- Chris Bassitt (QO)
- Sean Manaea
- Noah Syndergaard
- Nathan Eovaldi (QO)
- Ross Stripling
- Michael Wacha
- Corey Kluber
- Drew Rucinski
Top 50 MLBTR relief pitcher FA’s still available:
- Taylor Rogers
- Andrew Chafin
- David Robertson
- Adam Ottavino
Top 50 MLBTR catcher FA’s still available:
- Christian Vazquez
Top 50 MLBTR infielder FA’s still available:
- Carlos Correa (SS)
- Dansby Swanson (SS)
- Jean Segura (2B)
- Brandon Drury (3B)
- Justin Turner (3B)
Top 50 MLBTR outfield/DH FA’s still available:
- Brandon Nimmo (CF)
- Andrew Benintendi (LF)
- Jurickson Profar (LF)
- Michael Brantley (LF/DH)
- Michael Conforto (LF)
- JD Martinez (DH)
There are many more in the bargain bin that nobody scours through better than AF. There is more than one Shelby Miller out there. Seth Lugo has been linked to LAD.
The Padres lost Jurickson Profar, Josh Bell, Mike Clevinger, Sean Manaea, Wil Myers, but will be adding Fernando Tatis, Jr., and Xander Bogaerts. SD’s AAV payroll sits at $255MM but part of that will dissipate because Tatis’ first 21 games will not figure in the AAV. They will be a second time offender over the CBT threshold. Peter Seidler has instructed AJ Preller to put together a WS championship team and not worry about the cost. I have to figure they are still in on at least one more starter and maybe some bench role players. Does that include Carlos Rodón? I never figured they would be serious pursuers of Trea Turner, Aaron Judge, or Xander Bogaerts. And yet they were. So Carlos Rodón is undoubtedly in play.
The Giants lost Carlos Rodón, Evan Longoria, Brandon Belt, and relief pitchers Dominic Leone, Jarlin Garcia, and Jose Alvarez. Outside of Rodón, all others are replaceable. They are considered the favorite for Carlos Correa. Will Farhan meet Scott Boras’ asking price? He is not afraid to offer large contracts to the right player. Bryce Harper. Aaron Judge. Carlos Correa will not have the same fan base as Harper or Judge, but he will be a big boost to the organization. They are also in the mix for Brandon Nimmo and Carlos Rodón. Their AAV payroll sits at $151MM. They have $82MM to spend before they hit the threshold. I figure they can pick up Correa and one of Nimmo or Rodón, and then bench and relievers.
The Phillies lost Jean Segura but picked up Trea Turner, Taijuan Walker, and Matt Strahm. Dave Dombrowski has indicated that Philadelphia wants to finish what they started this year. Their AAV payroll is $225MM, but they will exceed the threshold for the players they need to accomplish their goal.
NYM lost Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker, Chris Bassitt, Brandon Nimmo, and relievers Adam Ottavino, Trevor Williams, and Joely Rodriguez. They have replaced deGrom with Justin Verlander. They are replacing Walker with José Quintana. They picked up a good LHRP, Brooks Raley. They are over $300MM but are still pursuing both Brandon Nimmo and Carlos Rodón. Who knows where the NYM payroll will land. Yes big names have changed teams, but the salaries are more exorbitant. There remains big names still to change. Plus there could be some trades that will pop.
While I believe LAD fans need to get used to Gavin Lux being the starting SS on Opening Day, with Miguel Vargas in the lineup in some capacity every game, and James Outman, Trayce Thompson, and Michael Busch as the platoon OF. Max Muncy does not have the range to be a 2B in the non-shift world. So with the current roster, CT3 has to be the 2B. Although, OKC manager, Travis Barbery says that Michael Busch is more than capable of playing 2B at the MLB level.
Regardless. while many are frustrated with the lack of activity by AF/BG, there is still 2 months before pitchers and catchers report, and there is a lot of time to fully construct the roster. Today’s roster will not be the opening day roster. Once the Bauer decision comes down, the Dodgers will know better what they can spend.
Good stuff. I’m ok with Lux at SS and Taylor/Busch at 2B. I need to know if Vargas can man 3B with Muncy backing him up while primarily DHing.
That leaves an opening in the OF, with Outman/Trayce good for one spot and leaving another one free.
Well crap, the guy I wanted most ends up in our Division. How can they not be considered favorites at this point? They already beat us and they did it without Tatis and Bogaerts.
Linked to the Dodgers sure doesn’t mean much does it. The cherry will be Correa signing with SF.
Good report Jeff. Don’t much care for what’s in it, but it’s informative and well written.
Everyone seems to think the Dodgers will just cut bait with Bauer if he’s reinstated. How about one of the following;
In either scenario the Dodgers would not be on the hook for his entire ‘23 salary.
As stated before, I kinda like the Padres “all-in” strategy.
Good for the Division. Better for baseball.
It’s only a short drive south to watch an exciting O’Malley team play.
Machado will be a free agent after 2023 if he opts out.
Soto will be a free agent after 2024.
Tatis and Bogaerts might be their only stars after 2024. They have traded away a lot of their prospects.
Will Kasten continue to play the long game?
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/dodgers-sign-jason-heyward.html
I always thought he should have had a brilliant career. He is so imposing at the plate, as if he could hit every pitch into McCovey Cove (paging Joey Gallo).
I do think that Correa is SF bound, but I do not think he is going to get the bonanza he originally thought he was. At least not now. Maybe closer to the start of the season. My reasoning is that Turner’s big contract came because Dombrowski did not want to wait for the Judge contract to let, so he could limit the number of big market teams who may be in on him. Give him $300MM if he signs now. 11 years makes it palatable from an AAV point ($27.27MM). SD was overbidding for both Turner and Judge by at least $40MM commitment. It is safe to say that Preller was not going to let Bogie get away like Judge and Turner. Boston’s best offer was under $200MM. I have no idea what any other team needing a SS would offer, but it is safe to say that Preller was not going to get beat again. <$200MM from Boston, vs $280MM from SD. No brainer. $25.45MM AAV. What will Soto be…$450MM over 15 years?
So with the big market teams, Philadelphia, SD, NYY, NYM, LAD, Texas, Houston, not looking to bid on Correa, that leaves SF, Minnesota, and Cubs, who are more likely to court Dansby Swanson. If Minnesota thought they could play with the big boys on Correa on a long term $300MM deal, they would have already offered it. Farhan will eventually sign Correa, but he is not going to bid against himself like Dombrowski and Preller did. Farhan knows he has Brandon Crawford for another season, and their #1 prospect, SS Marco Luciano, could be ready in 2024. They also have 2B Thairo Estrada who is a SS who would not block Luciano. Farhan will draw this out like Bryce Harper was. Boras will not be dealing with desperation in Farhan. Judge or Harper would have been the face of the organization. I am not sure that Correa can be.
Things are definitely coming full circle.
Heyward and Freddie being drafted 1-2 by Atlanta in the same draft, and Heyward and Shelby Miller were once traded for each other (or at least part of the same trade). I have a good feeling about Heyward. He’s going to contribute.
With regard to the Bogaerts signing, this definitely means Tatis goes to the outfield for the foreseeable future. Although Machado will probably opt out after next year, I don’t think the Pads will let him leave. They’ll just add some years and $ and be sure to keep him. I keep having this thought in the back of my brain that tells me the long range strategy here is to get rid of Tatis. He has a no trade clause, I believe, but no way he wouldn’t go to a contending club who wants him to play shortstop. I think he may have worn out his welcome with his actions last year, but a team that didn’t go through that with him might be thrilled to have him. So…………I’m going to predict that by opening day 2024, Tatis is wearing a different uniform.
SD has Bogaerts for 11 years, gives Machado extra years and $ next winter and gives Soto whatever he wants in order to keep him. They trade Tatis and re-stock their now empty farm system. You heard it first here.
Nimmo back to NYM – 8 years $162MM
Dansby’s not impossible. I don’t see us paying for shithead Correa. Is Segura an option? Never really liked him. Benintendi? McCutcheon? Drury?