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Dodger Baseball

The Resurgent LAD Pitching

The Dodgers have now played 12 consecutive games since August 1, and are 11-1 during that stretch.  They now have a 7 game winning streak.  During August, the Dodgers have scored 78 runs, and allowed 35 runs, for a run differential of 43.  They are averaging 6.5 runs per game, and allowing an average of 2.9 runs per game.

They have scored 8 or more runs in 5 of the 12 games.  They are 5-0 in those games, and are 6-1 when they have score 7 or less. They are 3-1 when they have scored 4 or less.

So the offense is still clicking.

The starting pitching has been a concern until recently.  Since August 1, the Dodgers have added Lance Lynn and Ryan Yarbrough.  While Yarbrough has not started as of yet, he has been the second pitcher in, pitching 4.1 and 3.0 innings.  He followed an opener in his first LAD appearance.

 

For the twelve games, the starters have gone:

  • 7 IP – 1
  • 6 IP – 5
  • 5 IP – 4
  • 2 IP – 1 (Bobby Miller)
  • 1 IP – 1 (Michael Grove opener)

Lance Lynn has three starts and 18.0 IP.  Tony Gonsolin has three starts and 17.0 IP.  Julio Urías has two starts and 11.0 IP.  Bobby Miller has two starts and 9.2 IP. Michael Grove (1.1 IP) and Clayton Kershaw (5.0) have the other two starts.

While the starters have not been overly prolific in their length in their starts, half of their August starts have been at least 6.0 IP.

Also since August 1, the Dodgers have had Clayton Kershaw return to the rotation, along with the resurgence of Julio Urías.  Tony Gonsolin has had two excellent starts, and one not so good, but got the win. He looks to be a very good candidate for a Gonsolin/Yarbrough piggyback for the playoffs.

The one August loss was due to a bullpen meltdown of Yency Almonte and Caleb Ferguson.  Except for Tony Gonsolin’s August 7 start against San Diego, the starting pitching has been excellent.

Of course there is always going to be those that will call out “Big Deal” they beat up on Oakland, San Diego, Arizona, and Colorado.  Since August 1, the starting pitching ERA is 2.03, while the relief ERA is 3.00.  Over a 12 consecutive game stretch, that is certainly commendable no matter who they are facing.

Since August 1, they have widened their lead on the NL West from 2.0 games to 8.5 games.  That is a 6.5 game increase over a 12 game stretch.  They are on a 97-98 win pace right now.

Going into the trade deadline, my contention was that if Kershaw cannot come back and be the pitcher he was before the injury, and if Julio Urías and Tony Gonsolin could not turn the corner, then the Dodgers would undoubtedly not win the WS anyway.  They needed one more starter, and picked him up (Lance Lynn), and a bulk inning/piggyback pitcher (Ryan Yarbrough), along with a strikeout pitching reliever (Joe Kelly).

The Dodgers could get Blake Treinen back before the end of the season, and he could be lethal in the playoffs.  I know Walker Buehler wants to come back, and the Dodgers seem to be giving him every opportunity to do just that.  He will not be in a position to go deep into games, but he could be a potential for a opener/piggyback game starter.

If this pitching continues at the current pace, the Dodgers will be formidable in the playoffs.  FanGraphs have them #2 to win WS, behind only Atlanta.  Their odds of getting into the playoffs is 100%.  They are 98.4% to win the Division, and 95.7% to clinch a bye.

The LAD offense is very dangerous, and they are not solely dependent on their stars.  AF/BG went out in the Winter to grab some excellent bench role players rather than wait until the trade deadline. Jason Heyward, David Peralta, and Miguel Rojas. That gave them the full season to gel with the team, and they have more than produced.  At the deadline, they added two hitters who can excel at hitting LHP: Amed Rosario and Kiké Hernández.  Since becoming LAD, these two have an OPS of .803 and .884 respectively.  Add in the full-time DH, JD Martinez, and the offense is geared up to score runs.

Also, James Outman has been red hot since July 1, and now sports an OPS north of .800 for the season.  Since July 1, his slash line reads .320/.460/.510/.970 in 126 PA and 100 AB.  That is All-Star range.  Also, since July 1, his K ratio is at 23.02% and his walk rate is at 18.25%.  He is much improved in both ratios.

The offense has been clicking most of the year, and with 46 games until the playoffs, the pitching looks to be getting ready to dominate as they did last year.  And yes my rose colored glasses fit just nicely, thank you very much.

 

 

 

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Dionysus

The upgrades were well done, at a relatively low cost [Nastrini might sting].

Now it’s up to the guys in the room to do it and for the manager not to get in their way.

Jeff

It does seem that the Dodgers have turned a corner. Pitching has settled down to the point that I don’t see any challenge to the division, at this point. Barring serious injury, we should expect a real push to the pennant. However, that road leads to Atlanta, a team that also expects to win a ring, and a team that will not roll over for us. I will look forward to that matchup.

Dionysus

100%

Oldbear48

The loss of one top prospect in a sea of top RH pitching prospects is not going to sting that much. And he went to the AL.

Dionysus

My crystal ball is cloudier than yours 🙂

Oldbear48

Get some wipes, that will clear things up.

Badger

Again, the manager has little to do with it.

Kiké will not continue to OPS .880. Rosario over .800 is not likely, but for several weeks? Maybe. All the pickups appear to be good fits, and that is most important.

The competition in the West, for the time being anyway, has fallen off a cliff. Will that continue?

Read an interesting article on the apparent randomness of post season play. In baseball, the best way to make sure the best teams win is to shorten the season and lengthen all playoff series to 7 games. I doubt that happens, but a 154 game season sounds like enough for me. $$ is the loudest voice in the game so if they can somehow make more money with a shorter season I think they would do it. Frankly I don’t think MLB really cares who wins it, though clearly a Kansas City Miami World Series would be a disappointing outcome for damm near everybody.

Bluto

Interesting!

Dionysus

Were you around for all those years Roberts made decisions that backfired in the playoffs? Because he sure inserts himself into the equation come postseason, regardless of what you say [again].

Badger

I’ve been around the Dodgers since 1959. That year, and every year since, it’s the players. They do their job, the manager looks like a genius. They don’t, and some fans will blame the manager. I am not one of those fans.

Dionysus

Congratulations.

I don’t think in terms of groups of people. I believe in individual thought and individual opinion.

You are free to have yours and I literally could care less.

{Ignore}

Oldbear48

Almonte went on the IL yesterday and Gonzalez was recalled. Rosario hit a couple of rockets off of righty’s last night with the second one being a line drive homer to left. Only a really good catch in right robbed him of a double.

Bluto

Lovely look at Heyward in the Times today (may be pay walled)

A ‘Perfect Marriage’ Between Team and Player https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/12/sports/baseball/jason-heyward-dodgers.html?smid=nytcore-android-share

Dionysus

Heyward is chill. Easy to root for.

Bobby

definitely a great guy.

Beginning of the year, I thought Peralta/Heyward were redundant. Both good players, trying to reestablish themselves, both left handed hitters, both great guys and mentors.

I’m glad we have both, but to balance things out better, I have no issue if we keep one and not keep one for next year.

Last edited 10 months ago by Bobby
Bumsrap

I was mostly alone about not wanting to trade for prospect-expensive pitching such as Scherzer or Verender. Lynn and Yarbrough seemed to fit with my thinking. I wanted a young righty bat. Rosario and Hernandez added righty bats without costing key prospects although neither are controllable. I guess I am a happy camper regarding the results of the trade deadline moves.

Smith, Freeman, Betts, Lux, and Outman will be the offensive core and based on the last list of the top 100 prospects, it’s a good thing the Dodgers have an offensive core as large as 5. Will Busch, Vargas, or Page be added to the core or will they be traded? Will a free agent be added to the core? Will Soto or Ohtani be added to the core?

Singing the Blue

If Soto is added to the core it won’t be until after next season, when he becomes a free agent. Even assuming Preller would trade with us, there’s no way that Andrew gives up the prospect capital he would have to for one year of Soto.

Dionysus

Soto will likely go to FA.

SD has Tatis, Machado & Bogaerts locked up long-term.

Even they have their limits

Dionysus

Btw, we don’t know what market value is for JS because he will likely set it.

Bumsrap

That was what I was thinking as well. It would be 2025 when and if Soto became a Dodger.

Badger

With as bad as the pitching was in July I admit I was hoping for a front of the rotation pitcher. We got a mid rotation pitcher, a RP with an ERA around 5 and a swing man. And now the pitching looks considerably better. Because of them? They’ve contributed but everyone looks better.

The offensive core next year? The top of the lineup will look the same. The middle might change. Whatever, the Dodgers will be good again.

Singing the Blue

When you add Joe Kelly to your roster, you know he’ll spend half the year (off and on) on the IL.

Today, he went back on the IL, for the second or third time this year, but his first as a Dodger.

Basically, we just need him healthy for the playoffs, but that might be a big ask.

No word yet as to who’ll replace him, but with an off day tomorrow we may not find out until Tuesday.

Joe’s been excellent in the few appearances since he got here and Almonte said that just before he messed up his knee he finally felt right for the first time this year in terms of his pitching.

Basically, we’ve lost two of our better bullpen arms in the last couple of days. Luckily we have a nice lead and can hopefully hold it while they recover.

Bumsrap

Urias is back and again doing his second half thing.

Dave

One thing Freidman is good at is adding quality clubhouse guys who add to the chemistry and mentor other players,(Utley,Freese,Pujols, Rojas).Guys like Machado were only short term. IMO the Padres mix of Soto, Machado, Tatis etc is a big reason that team is underperforming.
I can only hope Soto goes elsewhere.

Jeff

Add Peralta to that list.

OhioDodger

Great job by Urias. Just one bad pitch. Kike should not be playing infield.

Bumsrap

I’m super glad he wasn’t traded.

Badger

Pepiot might be the guy to eat up end of the year innings, giving the rest of the staff a few outs off.

Bummer about Kelly, but seeing him throw the ball 100 mph hour?… not really that surprising. Note to staff, 97 up and in, 88 low and away.

Times question today…. who will be the third starter in post season? At the moment I’m taking Lynn over Gonsolin. But, plenty of time left to choose.

Rams appear athletic, but small. Bennett looks like a great pick.

USC looks like a title contender.

Ohtani with a dead arm. He will be 30 next year. 130 innings, what he has now, might be a ceiling. He can get that rather easily in a 6 man rotation. We could do that.

(Ignore). Sound advice. I believe I will follow it.

Last edited 10 months ago by Badger
Badger

I hear a lot of jabber about the Padres chemistry. Looks to be true. I’m not a hater of that organization, it’s my opinion that team should be better. They appear to be so close but then they shoot themselves in the foot. Who is it that needs to go? They need to figure that out. Sending Machado back to Baltimore might be a good start.

Bumsrap

Machado to Baltimore, Bogaerts to third, Tatis to short. ? to SD.

Badger

To SD? More prospects they can flip.

Scott Andes

Can’t buy chemistry. Gotta give credit to Roberts as this never happens to the Dodgers. Year in and year out.

Bumsrap

Dodgers now #2 in power rankings.

Badger

Saw that. Those rankings are fun to watch, as teams bounce around. Coming up – Brewers in the Top 10, Marlins aren’t.

Clearly the team we are chasing is Atlanta. We could catch them, 4 games behind now. I posted the strength of schedule a few days ago. It’s about the same for both clubs. We do play them 4 times.

Oldbear48

Joe Kelly now on the IL with forearm soreness.

Bluto

Looks like there are no more relievers on the 40. I wonder if the team goes with 12 pitchers and gives Busch a look with JDM’s uncertainty?

Or Grove who has shows some relief leanings.

Badger

My guess would be pitching. The offense appears to have plenty of options.

Singing the Blue

In response to your “no more relievers on the 40-man”, the Times is reporting that Gus Varland will be added and brought up for tomorrow’s game.

That will necessitate taking someone off the 40-man or moving someone to the 60-day IL. Prime candidate would be Marisnick.

We originally got Varland along with Sheldon Neuse from the A’s for Kolarek and Cody Thomas. Varland was then taken by the Brewers in the Rule 5 and ultimately returned to us. He’s been pretty spectacular since coming back to OKC so hopefully this will be another pleasant 2023 surprise.

Bumsrap

spectacular” — I like the sound of that.

Singing the Blue

You know I tend to exaggerate, Fred, so don’t get too excited until we actually see him on the mound here.

Badger

I’m looking at his AAA stats and they are good. 2.16 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 10.5 K/9. Don’t see his last few games, maybe they are indeed spectacular.

Bluto

They are real and they are spectacular

Badger

The Implant!

Nice touch.

Singing the Blue

Seinfeld lives on forever.

Bumsrap

Well done guys.

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