I think fans want the Dodgers to make some real adjustments. I firmly believe that the fans are not going to accept what they might consider, half-measures this time. If Freidman goes after a bunch of reclamation projects, fans will not be happy.
MLBTR had a post yesterday where their experts predicted where the top 50 free agents will land. All guess work of course because at this point in time, no one has any clue where anyone is signing.
They have Ohtani signing with the Dodgers. But they only had one free agent pitcher signing with LA and he isn’t Japanese. They think Sonny Gray ends up with the Dodgers.
I think, well, I believe, the Dodgers will go hard after at least one of the Japanese import pitchers. And I believe it will be the lefty, Imanaga.
He makes more sense than Yamamoto. First, he is left-handed. Second, he is not going to command as large a contract as the very hyped Yamamoto.
Fans like big splashes. AF’s last two were the Betts trade and signing Freddie Freeman. But it has been a while since he brought in a name pitcher. And he has never done that with a free agent pitcher.
Let’s hear your ideas as to who AF should target.
Gray seems mediocre to me. I would much prefer to take a chance on the Asians. Japanese and Korean work ethic is unbeatable. We need some new blood and L.A has a big Asian population to support these players. We are a Pacific Rim team, the future of baseball.
After Ohtani, pitching.
I read again this morning that Burnes might be available. I’d say he’s worth a couple top prospects. Who? I don’t know. I’d go to the trade simulator but it would probably tell me the entire Tulsa Drlllers roster wouldn’t get it done. So, just overpay for Imanaga and be done with it.
Urias hasn’t been charged yet. What’s taking so long? This has a Bauer feel to it. As far as I’m concerned the relationship problems between two people are none of my business. If the woman doesn’t file charges then back off. He pushed her into a fence. Maybe he saw a scorpion at her feet. Having said that, if Urias is my client or my employee, I would insist he gets into therapy and stays in it.
If you’re asking for our opinions I would like to see us acquire 2 top of the rotation pitchers, a good rh bat or 2 to play OF or 3b. I would like to see us add some grit and leadership to the team, someone like Gibson, Reggie,Yaddy.
I like trades, they can save money and fill needs by trading players who are blocked in our system. They just take more work and finesse to get done.
I do not think Ohtani is what we need, at least before these other needs. There, I said it!
We need a dawg
Sign Imanaga. Trade for Burnes. All these prospects are losing value as time goes on. Either find a place for them or use them to acquire starting pitching. It seems Milwaukee is rebuilding and could use a infusion of MLB ready (?) prospects. Sign Flaherty, Giolito, or Wacha.
The only position players I would like to see signed is Gurriel for LF and Heyward resigned to platoon in RF with Deluca. Gurriel is a RH bat with above average power and below 20% K rate. Plus defense. A 4-5 year deal for $15M per seems good. Also, he had good playoff production in 2023.
I guess it would be cool to get Ohtani. With his injury history and current health status I don’t see any other teams on the west coast that could risk a half a billion dollars for one player except for the Dodgers. Therefore, these $500-$600M figures seem to be more media contrived numbers. I guess we’ll find out soon enough.
Carry on
Agree with all of that, so, well said Ted.
I also like Flaherty, Giolito, or Wacha and what you said re Ohtani
Another offensive superstar
A veteran SP or two
No more Peralta-type stop-gaps
Lux, Vargas & Busch in the starting lineup
Lux, Vargas & Busch all in the starting lineup.
1B – Freeman
2B – Vargas
SS – Lux
3B – Muncy
LF – Busch
CF – Outman
RF – Betts
C – Smith
DH – Ohtani
Bench – Rojas, Barnes, Taylor, Heyward (can’t be Deluca because need a LH bat coming off the bench).
If no Ohtani, then Muncy DH, Busch to 3B, and CT3 to LF? An even worse defense.
That would be the worst defensive infield in MLB and I doubt that there is any other close. That also assumes that both Vargas and Busch will hit MLB pitching. They have not as of yet. But you are counting on both of them, and Lux after a year off.
2nd thought, you may be on to something. This would be heaven for Dave Roberts. He could mix and match for ever.
Might work. Might be an 88 win team.
I like it!
I’m a fan. I want the Dodgers to win a World Series. I think they could get more value by spending Ohtani money on several players.
There are maybe too many questions. Is Lux healthy enough to play SS. Are the young pitchers ready for a bigger role. Will Muncy hit above the Mendoza line. Willo Vargas or Busch be any good.
I read this morning Lux will be ready and will share SS with Rojas. Muncy is penciled in at third, Betts at second. Hernandez and Heyward are likely to be re-signed. We have Taylor. That leaves left field. Can Busch play left field. I don’t know why not. I think it’s clear his favorite position is the left hand batters box but hit him a hundred a day out there in left and he’d get the hang of it. Vargas? Don’t know about him either. One or both of those guys could be used to get Burnes. Sign Teoscar or Gurriel, Imanaga, Ohtani and it’s a wildly successful winter. Good work Andrew.
Where did you read this?
The above post says Lux will be ready to be the “primary” SS. Read between the lines. There are other columns that say the Dodgers are holding onto Miguel Rojas just in case Lux cannot play everyday at SS.
Also from Juan Toribio (MLB Dodger beat writer) after speaking with Brandon Gomes:
I was not aware of the hamstring tear. That is a lot of trauma in the leg to come back in one year. I like trading with Toronto. The Dodgers seem to always get the better in a trade.
You know I want Bichette. RH bat who plays SS but can also move to 3B if need be.
My preference would be for the Dodgers to bolster their starting pitching with Burnes, Imanaga, Sonny Gray, and/or Snell. And add a RH bat for LF/DH. They have plenty of money and prospects to get these acquisitions done.
But before everyone panics about not adding all of the free agents, IMO if the Dodgers just retain their existing players they have a playoff team that can win 90+ games. The lineup is better than last year’s lineup that set a Dodger scoring record for this century:
Betts
Freeman
JDM
Muncy
Smith
Outman
Lux
Heyward/Taylor
Busch/ Vargas
Bench: Taylor, Vargas, Kike, Rojas, Barnes, Deluca
Starting Pitching:
Buehler
Miller
Pepiot
Sheehan
Yarbrough
Grove
Stone
Kershaw
The Bullpen is already solid, but will be really good if if they bring back Brasier and Shelby Miller.
I don’t advocate just bringing back the same team, but if they had this roster, I think they could win the NL West. It should be fairly easy to use the additional $70-$100 million in budget to make the team a World Series favorite by focusing on starting pitching.
Interesting take. I’m still thinking Friedman wants to make a splash. One hitter, two pitchers.
Sorry, but that starting staff just won’t cut it. There’s no guarantee that Buehler will be anything close to what he was, and that leaves the rotation without any kind of ace.
Over at ESPN and behind their paywall is a retrospective look at the Rangers and the steps taken to win the WS.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/38841610/mlb-2023-world-series-rangers-trades-semien-seager-scherzer
Here are some of the lessons that Dave Shoenfield took away:
Lesson: Be lucky.
Lesson: Find players blocked in other organizations.
Lesson: Hope your bullpen gets hot at the right time.
Lesson: Spend the money!
Lesson: You can never have too much starting pitching.
40% is pretty much luck.
I really like the 2nd one.
On thet final note, Schoenfield expands that he anticipates the Dodgers to heed this lesson this off-season:
The Dodgers will be getting Walker Buehler back, but they’ll be without Kershaw and Julio Urias, leaving Bobby Miller as the only proven holdover from 2023.
Heyman in the NYPost reports:
Dodgers still front-runners for Ohtani. That Ohtani didn’t want to live in NYC (although that was 6 years ago)
Bellinger associated with Cubs and Yanks
Chapman with incumbent Toronto, Arizona and SFG (total value could eclipse 150mm)
Jeimer Candelario has interest from ARZ, CIN and LAA.
The great Mark Feinsand notes:
Majority expects Ohtani to LAD. Other clubs include: SFG, NYM, BOS, CUBS.
Talks should heat up after Turkey Day, with predicted decision by the Winter Meetings.
Soto and Castellanos could be available for trade.
Phills announce Harper will play 1B full-time, which means Hoskins should be moving on in theory. I’ll believe it when I see it.
If I bring up the name Matt Mervis, how many out there know who he is without looking him up? 6’ 2”, 225, Bats left, throws right. Age (today) 25 years 208 days. He was supposed to be the Cubs 1B last year and one of the favorites for NL ROY. Did not happen.
Mervis’ MiLB Career Metrics
· .277/.370/.528/.898, 67 HR, 277K, 154BB, 1322 PA
· 5.07% HR rate (HR every 19.73 PA), 20.95% K rate, 11.65% BB rate
Mervis’ AAA Career Metrics
· .287/.392/.550/.943, 37 HR, 139K, 93BB
· 5.32% HR rate (HR every 18.81 PA), 19.97% K rate, 13.36% BB rate
Here is another MiLB player. He is 6’ 1”, 210. Age (today) 26 years 1 day (about 5 months older than Mervis).
Career MiLB Metrics
· .283/.390/.529/.919, 79 HR, 389K, 216BB, 1640 PA
· 4.82% HR rate (HR every 19.73 PA), 23.72% K rate, 13.17 BB rate
AAA Metrics
· .293/.385/.544/.930, 48 HR, 169K, 58BB, 973 PA
· 4.93% HR rate (HR every 20.27 PA), 22.51% K rare, 11.82% BB rate
Both players made the MLB debut in 2023.
Mervis – 99 PA, .167/.242/.289/.531, 3 HR, 32K, 8BB
2nd Player – 81 PA, .167/.247/.292/.539, 2 HR, 27K, 8BB
These players are as good of a comp as you may find.
2nd player? …Michael Busch.
Why did I bring this up? I was reading that the Cubs are looking to move an even younger Christopher Morel from 2B/CF to 1B. I was looking for a potential home for Michael Busch, but learned they have Michael Busch.
I really do not know what level of competence that Mervis has as a 1B, but the Cubs are concerned that Mervis will not be a consistent hitter at the MLB level. I am betting that Mervis will get another shot to win the 1B in ST, but Morel will be at the ready to take over.
Busch will never take over 1B for the Dodgers. But if the Cubs are not convinced that Mervis can be an everyday 1B, they are certainly not going to trade for Busch.
Now that is one team. But I am sure that I can find others who could be comps. Older MiLB All Stars on the cusp of MLB, but not quite there. The question is that while Busch/Mervis will be MLB players, will they ever grow into a regular lineup? The Dodgers need to make that same decision this year for Busch/Vargas at 3B, at 2B, at LF. All are in play.
The Yankees want and need more balance between their righty bats and their lefty bats and therefore are said to covet Bellinger and are willing to trade for Soto. If they get neither then Muncy could be someone the Yankees would want.
The Cubs want a first baseman.
If the Dodgers sign Ohtani they will have Ohtani, Lux, Outman, Muncy, Freeman all in the everyday lineup and hitting from the left side. That leaves Smith, Betts, LF, and RF hitting from the right side. They have DeLuca and Taylor as in-house candidates for those outfield positions.
The in-house rotation is Buehler, Miller, Pepiot, Sheehan, Grove, and Stone. I like its potential and ceiling but realize the floor is worrisome. May might not return until 2025. Gonsolin should return in 2024. Adding a one year rental would build a bridge to Gonsolin and give Grove and Stone another year to prove themselves.
Burns would be a good bridge if a trade were made. So might Flaherty. Giolito, Gray, etc would be longer term assets and free up Grove and Stone for trades. Yamamoto would basically represent a lack of faith in Miller, Pepiot, and Sheehan.
A six man rotation or a piggyback system to reduce the demand for innings from Buehler and keep Yamamoto in his comfort zone reduces the number of in-house pitchers the Dodgers could use in trades.
I think the Dodgers would be more fun to watch if Ohtani were on the team and as long as they win 95 regular season games and make the playoffs, I’ll take fun over dominance. That assumes dominance is obtained from having several Aces on the staff.
So, here is my wish list in order of priority:
Sign Ohtani
Sign two from Flaherty, Giolito, Gray, Wacha, Imanaga
Trade for Witt using some combination of Busch, Vargas, Cartaya, Miller, Muncy (3 team trade), Pages, Tulsa Prospects, Pages. Taylor (3 team trade)
Trade for Burnes if Witt is not obtained.
Sign either Gurriel or Heyward depending on whether or not Muncy remains a Dodger.
If you trade for Witt, you can probably include Lux because they will have lost their shortstop and we no longer need one.
Why should trading for Burnes depend on not getting Witt? We have enough prospects to do both if we include Lux, Busch and Vargas plus others in one trade or the other.
If I read correctly you have Gonsolin back in 2024 and May in 2025. I think you have that backwards………………..but i could be mistaken. Anyone?
I’m also not at all confident with a rotation of Buehler, the kids, and a one-year rental. Way too much uncertainty for me with that scenario. I think we need 2-3 proven major league starters to add to your list. Buehler, with 2 TJ’s may not come back to be the old WB we knew and loved. Miller and Pepiot could be due for some regression before becoming the pitchers we hope they turn into. Sheehan, Grove and Stone really haven’t proven much yet. Get me more pitching.
And while I’m at it, a HUGE NO THANK YOU on Teoscar. We don’t need more strike outs. Get me that bat-to-ball guy. I’d settle for Gurriel if I had to but there are probably better alternatives.
Yeah, you’re correct STB. Gonsolin just TJ surgery and won’t be back before the 2025 season. As far as May returning in 2024 my feeling is that his career might be over. To have that much damage to his arm in such a short period of time is not a positive scenario. If he does return it would be a reliever. It’s a damn shame because I love watching him pitch and how competitive he was. Of course, this is my opinion and not based on anything I read or heard. I hope I’m completely wrong.
Don’t give up hope on May, Ted. He’s still pretty young so hopefully that will make a difference in his recovery chances.
If not, we’ll just teach him to throw left handed.
Your consistent optimism is always appreciated. Like I said I hope I’m wrong. He was always must see for me whenever he pitched.
I think he would be wise to learn how to get people out without throwing 99 mph so often. Learn 92 with movement and location. An Orel Hershiser two seamer that breaks down towards Long Beach this at bat then toward Topanga next at bat. If he could spot one 99 mph pitch on the knuckles every now and then, it would make those 92 mph sinkers deadly. Add a circle and maybe a straight change and he could pitch for a while longer. Feels like nobody wants it more than him. Be smart. Learn how to pitch.
Good catch on my availability year for Gonsolin and May. I think Gonsolin will be back in 2025 and May in 2026. In either case they won’t be available in 2024.
I fully agree with you on Teoscar.
Regarding your comments on Buehler and the young pitchers you are right on. I tried to say the same by talking about floors and ceilings.
The question about pitching solutions for me is about safety valves versus replacement. I’m thinking safety valve more than replacement because I see our existing pitchers with rose colored glasses.
Would the Dodgers be comfortable signing lower cost pitchers before Ohtani makes a decision or waiting on Ohtani before they do anything. The other option is go for the expensive pitchers and still try to sign Ohtani.
I don’t think Andrew will sign anyone major before finding out about Ohtani. If we get him, that could lead to all kinds of changes in the players he then goes after. Same in reverse if we don’t get him.
Just my guess, but I really don’t think Ohtani’s decision will take all that long. I’m going to guess Thanksgiving weekend.
Witt won’t be traded. KC will extend him.
Teoscar strikes out a lot, that is true. But he hit 26 home runs and drove in 93, OPSd .741. Not that great defensively. Played 160. I bet Taylor could do 26/93 if he got 625 at bats. I’d prefer Gurriel too. I think he would be a good fit here.
Ohtani, Gurriel, Burnes/Imanaga, Flaherty/Giolito and some other pitcher from the recycle bin and we’re done. Again, nice work Andrew.
Extending Witt doesn’t necessarily mean they wouldn’t trade him.
Speaking of really good shortstops who are probably not available (although I’ve read a couple of slight rumbles), how about Bo Bichette?
As long as we’re throwing all of our prospects at other teams, I’m more than happy to try for Bo. Two years of control remaining so let’s go for it.
Or we could take Tatis off the Padres hands so they could afford to extend Soto. We could move him back to shortstop and make him promise not to act like a jerk. He’d do that wouldn’t he?
You are getting the hang of this trade stuff. I vote you most improved. I’ve read several times where Bo has been a potential trade to the Dodgers. I like it.
One of the trades I suggested before the start of the 2023 season that was viewed by most as another crazy Bums thing was to trade Urias for Tatis. This was right after the Padres were said to be fed up with Tatis’ behavior.
Maybe they don’t read the news. I’ll have Andrew propose that trade to Preller this afternoon.
By the way, even at their most fed up, SD would have asked for a lot more than Urias to make that trade.
Oh, and maybe someone could explain to me why the Jays would even consider trading Bichette. I would think they’d be much more likely to trade Guerrero.
They can get more for Bichette. I also have little belief of the rumored report, but I also do not rule it out. Toronto also needs to shake it up. They have been consistently a playoff team that gets bounced way too early. Toronto is losing (may be losing) Matt Chapman, Kevin Kiermaier, Hyun Jin Ryu, Jordan Hicks and Brandon Belt. One can see where Muncy would fit nicely. He will not be traded. I think AF could put together a package to make Toronto at least think about trading Bichette, even without Muncy. AF could also put together a package that would make Toronto trade Bichette, even without Muncy. Guerrero is a DH who plays a VERY BAD 1B (probably worst in MLB).
I was just doing main guys. Obviously Urias with one year left on his contract would not be enough. I left out the obvious. Geez Blue.
I need everything explained in detail, Fred. You know that.
Regarding Lux, maybe if Muncy goes to the Yankees for Peraza then it could be Peraza to KC instead of Lux. Other players besides Muncy and Peraza that would be involved are Friedman’s problem.
I just do not get the fascination with Snell. He is a 5-inning pitcher, he walks too many and in his 8 years in the majors, he has had two good seasons, 2018 and 2023. All the rest of his seasons he has been mediocre. Not worth what Boras is going to ask for.
Could Ohtani hit 60 home runs this year now that he won’t pitch?
Sure.
Since we’ve been talking about trading for Witt Jr or Bichette (dream on!), I decided to go to the Trade Simulator, a site which I find lots of fun but totally crazy on occasion.
This was one of those times.
Bichette value: 55
Witt Jr value : 83
They consider Bobby Miller for Bichette, even up, a mild overpay for the Dodgers.
I think, and maybe they’re right to do so, that they add lots of value to a prime prospect who has lots of control remaining, as opposed to an established young star with less control.
Bichette has 2 years remaining at roughly 12 mil and 17.5 mil.
Witt has 4 years remaining and earned about $750,000 this year.
Bo Bichette 2023 line:
.306.339.475.814 with 30 doubles 20 home runs 73 RBI and 5 SB
2026 free agent 2024 $11MM 2025 $16MM
Bobby Witt Jr 2023 line
.276.319.495.814 with 28 doubles 30 home runs 96 RBI and 49 SB
2028 free agent 2024 pre arb 2025 arb 1
Trade simulator says Miller and Cartaya at 84 for Witt at 83 is a fair trade.
Muncy, Pages, and Vargas 59 points for Bichette 55 points is a fair trade.
RF Betts
1B Freeman
SS Witt
DH Ohtani
CF Outman
C Smith
2B Lux
3B Bichette
LF LaDuca / Busch
And you think Toronto would do that deal? Their fans would burn down the stadium.
But, in a fantasy world where it happens, I maintain my position that I want to bat Lux 9th, in front of Mookie.
Whatever, that’s quite a lineup. But now Badger had better go out and get us some pitching.
I already did.
Play ball!
The more fun I have putting together a lineup the more improbable it is.
“Their fans would burn down the stadium.”
—-What fans? Have a few free ribs promotion nights and all would be forgiven. It’s more likely Muncy would burn down Friedman’s home.
I’ll toss in Taylor and $40MM.
You are very generous with other people’s money.
You think the Toronto fans can be bought off with ribs?
I’m sure Max was very clear when he signed this recent deal that he wanted to stay. Trading him right away would be like………….like hiring a new manager right under your old manager’s nose. No GM would ever do that.
I have been a Dodger fan for most of my 75 years. Here is what I would like. Another shot at least at winning a World Series. I realize it is not that easy to win the whole thing anymore. Back in the days when just two teams played in the post season, it wasn’t easy either. Especially if you were the Dodgers playing the Yankees. I think a couple of things need to be addressed. First and foremost, this team needs consistent starting pitching. So, a couple of front-line starters first and foremost. They need to strengthen their defense, not weaken it. So, a guy like Teoscar Hernandez is not someone I think they should pursue. His defense is ok, but sorry, he strikes out WAY TOO MUCH. They do need at least one RH bat with some pop. If they do not re-sign Martinez, the only RH hitter on the roster with any power is Mookie. Will Smith, if recovered from his bumps and bruises that curtailed his production for a couple of months this season, can give you 20 plus dingers. But he and Mookie are it without Martinez. Freeman is good for 25-30 long balls, and we know Muncy is a 30-homer guy. More consistent contact and less strikeouts. MLB needs to fix the umpires. I have seen some bad umpiring over the years, but I cannot remember a year where it was this awful. It needs to be addressed.
Not worried about the Dodger bullpen, except for their workload. AF always seems to find a gem or two to put down there. I think it is time to spend some of that prospect depth they have and fill a couple of holes. Let’s think they do not sign Ohtani. Ok, Max can DH and share that duty with Will Smith when he needs a blow from catching. Trade for a third baseman with some fielding chops and a decent bat. I would love to see them get Lane Thomas from the Nationals. The guy definitely has some skills. If they do not sign one of the Japanese free agent pitchers, sign Giolito to a one-year deal like they did Thor and let Pryor work his magic. I would also like to see them bring in Wacha. Guy has some nasty stuff and he pitched well this season. He is coming off of two good years in a row, would probably jump at a three-year deal and be a lot cheaper than Snell, Montgomery or any of those other guys.
I think people who think the Royals will trade Witt, or the Jays will unload Bichette, are totally dreaming. Bichette is only 25. Jays would be more likely to unload Biggio. Some have suggested Chapman at third. Chapman is an Aplus glove, and a decent power hitter. But he suffers from Muncy’s disease and strikes out a ton. Jose Ramirez, with Cleveland seemingly in a rebuild mode, would be a trade target for third. Great glove and some power. I just want to see the team play consistent and good baseball. You know, like they have over the last 11 years.
Definitely no on Teoscar.
Concentrate on starting pitching.
And, fix the incredibly bad umpiring.
Andrew can say no to Teoscar.
Andrew can concentrate on starting pitching.
Andrew can’t do a damned thing about the bad umpiring.
No crap? I never would have known. I said it is time MLB do something about it.