The Dodgers do need to inject youth onto the roster and more specifically into the lineup. I have no argument with that.
I will agree that we have no idea what Kasten was alluding to in his comments. But we can all agree that what he actually said was…“We think we are now on the precipice of the next wave of young guys. We need to make room to allow that to happen.”
The problem is that these players in the next wave are not so young. IMO and in Kasten’s words, he was referring to the prospects early in the last decade. That previous wave of players and their MLB debuts:
- Julio Urías – 19
- Corey Seager – 21
- Cody Bellinger – 21
- Joc Pederson – 22
- Yasiel Puig – 22
Current youth wave:
- Miguel Vargas – 22 in MLB debut – 23 next year
- Ryan Pepiot – 24 in MLB debut – 25 next year
- James Outman – 25 in MLB debut – 26 next year
- Michael Grove – 25 in MLB debut – 26 next year
- Jacob Amaya – 24 next year
- Gavin Stone – 24 next year
- Bobby Miller – 24 next year
- Michael Busch – 25 next year
The youngest player in this group, Miguel Vargas, is older than the oldest person was in the previous group, Yasiel Puig.
- 23 year old – 1
- 24 year old – 3
- 25 year old – 2
- 26 year old – 2
Even Andy Pages will be 22 next year and he has only reached AA.
So exactly what qualifies as a youth movement? And which of these next wave can replicate the following?
- Seager was an AS at 22, #3 in MVP voting at 22, ROY at 22, and a SS at 22. NLCS and World Series MVP at 26.
- Belli was an AS at 21, #9 MVP voting at 21, ROY at 21 AND MVP at 23 and SS at 23.
- Joc was an AS at 23 and #6 ROY at 23.
- Puig was an AS at 23, #2 vote for ROY at 22, #15 MVP vote at 22, and #19 MVP vote at 23
Only Vargas can duplicate Joc and Puig and become an AS at 23. But he cannot replicate Seager or Bellinger.
Urías was #7 CY vote at 24, and will undoubtedly be #2 CY vote at 25. He was the NL ERA leader at 25. A WS hero at 23.
Which one of the pitchers does anyone believe will duplicate what Urías did at 23, or 24 or 25?
Bluto made a reference to the 2019 group. Lux, Smith, Gonsolin, May, Beaty, Ríos, Garlick, Verdugo…Out of that group, Bluto said that it would be super-amazing if the next wave produced 4 like Lux, Smith, Gonsolin, and May.
I would prefer the youth movement that produced, Seager, Belli, Joc, Urías, and Puig. That group produced multiple AS selections, an MVP, multiple SS awards, and multiple high MVP vote totals, all before 23.
- Tony Gonsolin will be 29 next year. – #4 ROY at 26 (2020), CY Votes in 2022 (?)
- Gavin Lux will be 25 – No ROY or MVP votes.
- Dustin May will be 25 – #5 ROY at 22 (2020).
- Will Smith will be 28 – No ROY or MVP votes. He will get MVP votes in 2022, and should have been an All Star in 2022.
May has thrown a total of 143.2 innings in 4 years. His high was 56 in 2020, his rookie year. I recognize and understand that May was out for almost two years due to TJ surgery. But doesn’t that have to be taken into consideration? I still consider Dustin May a prospect. He has not done anything yet, but he may.
All four of those players Bluto identified are good MLB players. But the ML has plenty of players that play at that level. Who are the elite players in the organization?
The one elite prospect in the organization is probably Diego Cartaya. He will be 21 next year, but has not reached AA yet. Julio Rodriguez was an MLB All Star, will win ROY, and will get a high MVP vote total at 21.
I am ready for an injection of youth. Will it be spread out like the early last decade group?
- Yasiel Puig – 2013
- Joc Pederson – 2014
- Corey Seager – 2015
- Julio Urías – 2016
- Cody Bellinger – 2017
Or will it be 3-4-5 all in one shot?
Or will it be a smaller number of youth injection and multiple prospects being packaged for a significant upgrade?
We will all learn over the next 3-4 months.