Bluto directed us to a Bill Plaschke column in the LA Times where Kasten gave an interview, hinting at what we fans should expect this winter. This article triggered a depression episode for me (literally). So while reading my rant below, please take that into consideration.
“Earlier in the last decade, we had a wave of young guys who were going to be real contributors. We think we are now on the precipice of the next wave of young guys. We need to make room to allow that to happen.”
Or the cynic in me believes he is saying that “we can watch the WS on the television on a $220MM payroll just as easily as we can with a $300MM payroll.”
Does not sound promising for JT or Cody. Or probably Kersh and Anderson. Got to keep those pitching spots open for the youth movement.
Stan Kasten needs to keep his image of building good teams that cannot finish. Nobody is better at near misses than Second Best Stan. We already know the 2022 team could not finish. Heck they couldn’t get out of the NLDS against a team they owned in the regular season. I know…short series crapshoot. I am so tired of hearing that. The best team in baseball is the Houston Astros and they kicked ass in all three of their short series (11-2). The Dodgers just rolled over. Make all the excuses you want, but that is what happened.
Are we are supposed to believe that Miguel Vargas, James Outman, Michael Busch, Bobby Miller, and Gavin Stone are going to win it all when Trea Turner, JT, Cody Bellinger, Clayton Kershaw, and Tyler Anderson couldn’t. And they still have not replaced Walker Buehler.
Kasten continued,
“I’m blessed and thankful our people put us in a position to contend for a championship every year, and I look forward to that continuing.”
“You can enjoy the whole year without just focusing on the last game or games of the year.”
I guess that is what we Dodger fans should hope for in the future. Winning the Championship is secondary to just contending every year. After all, he also pointed out…fans actually vote with their wallets, and as long as the Dodgers annually lead the league in attendance by a large margin, well, the new Dodger Way is working. Okay the last part is per Plaschke, but is he wrong? Why should the Dodgers change? They have the second best TV deal (next to NYY), and lead attendance every year. They are a cash cow. The fans are showing with their wallets that not winning a WS Championship is apparently okay with them, according to Kasten.
For this fan, a WS championship once every 35 years is just not good enough for a team that seemingly has everything. By that standard, I will never see another LAD championship. But I should be satisfied because the Dodgers could win 100+ games every year, even if they cannot finish with the parade.
I WILL NEVER STOP BEING A DODGER FAN. I have been one since 1958. But I am allowed to show my disappointment. I have this blog and I am free to post all of the changes I would like to see, even if Bluto reminds us that what we say does not mean a thing, because we have no control or input. But regardless as to how superfluous Bluto thinks it is, I will continue to vent.
I have maintained that the team will drop under the $233MM CBT threshold in 2023. That would seem to indicate that a lot of youth will be on the roster, and a lot of the big 2022 contracts will be gone. So be it. Per Kasten,
“I’m sure there are ways that we can get better. … We can’t accept that there’s no way we can get better. … That’s not an acceptable conclusion,” he said. “You can look at everything that happened and you can look at everything we did … you hope the breaks even out over a period of time, but we always assume there are things we can do to get better.”
So that change is apparently going with a youth movement.
I will continue to believe in a team with a rookie at 2B (Michael Busch), a rookie at 3B (Miguel Vargas), a 2B who will go back to SS (Gavin Lux), and #4 OF starting in LF (Trayce Thompson), and another rookie in CF (James Outman). Even if that will be one of the very worst defensive infields in MLB. Or perhaps another Rookie in LF (Andy Pages). With rookies Gavin Stone and Bobby Miller in the rotation, and rookies Ryan Pepiot and Michael Grove in the bullpen, what could possibly go wrong? Out with the old and in with the youth.
Miguel Vargas
Michael Busch
James Outman
So the Dodgers will silently build for 2024 and 2025 when the youth movement will then take Julio Urias and Walker Buehler from the rotation, and 130 innings Tony Gonsolin will be the Ace.
The team will have 25 RHP in AAA and AA with a 45-50 FV, waiting and waiting and waiting instead of being packaged for a pitcher or CF or big RH bat, who might actually help. Let’s not forget the 6 catchers and 17 utility players. Because we all know that defensive diversity is more important than defensive excellence.
Houston had two rookies on the WS roster, one was uber SS Jeremy Peña, and the second was reserve David Hensley. The Phillies had two. One was an integral part of the lineup, SS Bryson Stott, and the second is 31 year old RHRP Andrew Bellatti. Yes a 31 year old rookie.
But the Dodgers are going to win the WS with 3 (or 4) rookie starters and 2 rookie pitchers in the rotation (pick 2 any 2)? Because “We think we are now on the precipice of the next wave of young guys. We need to make room to allow that to happen.”
Sounds like the Oakland A’s mentality. Or Miami Marlins, or Tampa Bay Rays, or Cincinnati Reds, or Pittsburgh Pirates, or KC Royals. KC at least has won as many WS championships in the last 8 years as have the Dodgers.
And what happens if that youth movement is not as good as the previous one that included Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger, Yasiel Puig, Julio Urias, and with an Ace already on staff, HOF Clayton Kershaw? Every one of those players were rated higher than any of the incoming rookies.
BTW, who here sees Dustin May or Tony Gonsolin or Bobby Miller as a future HOF?
I continue to read that some simply believe that the Astros are winning now because they tanked. If that were true, then why hasn’t Oakland, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Baltimore, or Miami been winning? Somebody is not doing their research on Houston.
Astros World Series Roster
Astros pitchers
- Bryan Abreu – International Free Agent 2013
- Hunter Brown – 2019 Draft – 5th Round
- Luis Garcia – International Free Agent 2017
- Cristian Javier – International Free Agent 2015
- Lance McCullers, Jr. – 2012 Draft 1st Round (#41)
- Rafael Montero – Trade from Seattle July 2021
- Héctor Neris – Free Agent 11/2021
- Ryan Pressly – Trade from Minnesota July 2018
- Will Smith – Trade from Atlanta August 2022
- Ryne Stanek – Free Agent 01/2021
- José Urquidy – International Free Agent 2015
- Framber Valdez – International Free Agent 2015
- Justin Verlander – Trade from Detroit – August 2017
Astros catchers
- Martín Maldonado – Trade with Chicago Cubs July 2019, resigned as FA 2019
- Christian Vázquez – Trade with Boston August 2022
Astros infielders
- Jose Altuve – International Free Agent 2007
- Alex Bregman – 2015 Draft – 1st Round (#2)
- Aledmys Díaz (IF/OF) – Trade with Toronto November 2018
- Mauricio Dubón (IF/OF) – Trade with SFG May 2022
- Yuli Gurriel – International Free Agent 2016
- David Hensley – 2018 Draft – 26th Round
- Trey Mancini (IF/OF) – Trade with Baltimore August 2022
- Jeremy Peña – 2018 Draft – 2nd Round
Astros outfielders
- Yordan Alvarez – Trade with LAD August 2016
- Chas McCormick – 2017 Draft – 21st Round
- Kyle Tucker – 2015 Draft – 1st Round (#5)
Houston tanked in 2011, 2012, and 2013. In 2014, they were 70-92. That would have beat 9 teams in 2022. So Kyle Tucker did not come to Houston because they tanked in 2014. Technically the 2022 team did benefit from the tanking with Alex Bregman. Bregman was the overall #2 selection in 2015, and they got that because they did not sign the overall #1 pick in 2014, LHP Brady Aiken. How lucky for Houston that Aiken did not sign. They got Bregman the next year, and Aiken was drafted again in the 1st round of 2015 (#17) by Cleveland, and he never reached above low A. Out of baseball after 2019.
Lance McCullers did come out of one of those tanking drafts (2012), but he was overall #41 selection in 2012. Drafting a pitcher overall #41 is not a benefit of tanking. Carlos Correa was a 1/1 after the team tanked, but he is no longer with Houston. The Astros just won a legit WS with Jeremy Peña at SS with Houston and Correa in Minnesota.
This nonsense that Houston built the current juggernaut only because they tanked is just that…nonsense.
I love the kids. Always have, always will. They want to add Vargas or Busch or Outman in the lineup I am okay with that. But all three? And I am okay with one of the kids in the rotation and one in the bullpen. But four rookie pitchers?
I do not want to do the research right now, but maybe someone knows. What WS team won with 2 rookies in the everyday lineup and 3-4 key rookie pitchers? I am guessing none.
Badger wrote that you cannot build a WS winner in April. I think that is true, but you can certainly lose one.
I will wait until I see what the Dodgers actually do this winter. Maybe Kasten is doing his sleight of hand routine with his youth movement remarks. Maybe he is building up the youth for trades. It is hard to trade quality youth if you do not believe in them. It is hard to convince a team to accept one of the MLB ready prospects, when you do not believe they are good enough to play on your team. Or he is being literal with advising us to expect a youth movement. We will soon see.
I will continue to praise and vent as I see fit.
Thanks for putting up with my rant.
1st Free Agent Signing – RHRP Edwin Díaz – New York Mets –
5 years $102MM, $12MM signing bonus, Player opt out after 2026, and $20MM club option for 2028
1st Trade – Colorado traded OF Sam Hilliard to Atlanta for MiLB RHP Dylan Spain
Option Transactions:
SS Carlos Correa – Opted out of his Minnesota Twins contract
SS Xander Bogaerts – Opted out of his Boston Red Sox contract
RHSP Jacob deGrom – Opted out of his New York Mets contract
1B Anthony Rizzo – Opted out of his New York Yankees contract
RHSP Carlos Rodón – Opted out of his $22.5MM player option with San Francisco
RHSP Taijuan Walker – Opted out of his $7.5 player option with NYM, $3MM buyout
SS Tim Anderson – Chicago White Sox picked up his $12.5MM club option
RHP Chris Bassitt – Declined $19MM mutual option with New York Mets
DH/1B Dan Vogelbach – New York Mets picked up $1.5MM option
RHP Sonny Gray – Minnesota Twins picked up his $12.7MM option
DH Nelson Cruz – Washington Nationals declined $16MM option – $3MM buyout
LHRP Andrew Chafin – Declined $6.5MM player option with Detroit Tigers
3B/1B Miguel Sano – Minnesota Twins declined $14MM club option
RHP Chris Archer – Minnesota Twins declined $10MM club option, $750K buyout
RHP Dylan Bundy – Minnesota Twins declined $11MM club option
OF Tommy Pham – Boston Red Sox declined $12MM mutual option, $1.5MM buyout
3B/2B Josh Harrison – Chicago White Sox declined $5.5MM option, $1.5MM buyout
RHSP Aaron Nola – Philadelphia Phillies picked up the $16MM club option
RHP Zach Eflin – Declined $15MM mutual option with Philadelphia Phillies
2B Jean Segura – Philadelphia Phillies declined $17MM club option, $1MM buyout
RHRP Robert Suarez – Declined $7.5MM player option with San Diego Padres
LF Jurickson Profar – Declined $5MM player option with San Diego Padres
RHSP Luis Severino – New York Yankees picked up $15MM club option
RHSP Zach Davies – Arizona DBacks declined $1.5MM club option, $250K buyout
Awards Finalists
Rookies of the Year – November 14
National League
· Brendan Donovan – Utility – St. Louis
· Michael Harris II – CF – Atlanta
· Spencer Strider – RHP – Atlanta
American League
· Steven Kwan – LF – Cleveland
· Julio Rodriguez – CF – Seattle
· Adley Rutschman – C – Baltimore
Manager of the Year – November 15
National League
· Dave Roberts – Los Angeles Dodgers
· Buck Showalter – NYM
· Brian Snitker – Atlanta
American League
· Tito Francona – Cleveland
· Brandon Hyde – Baltimore
· Scott Servais – Seattle
Cy Young Award – November 16
National League
· Sandy Alcantara – Miami
· Max Fried – Atlanta
· Julio Urías – Los Angeles Dodgers
American League
· Dylan Cease – Chicago White Sox
· Alek Manoah – Toronto
· Justin Verlander – Houston
MVP – November 17
National League
· Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – St. Louis
· Nolan Arenado – 3B – St. Louis
· Manny Machado – 3B – San Diego
American League
· Yordan Alvarez – DH/LF – Houston
· Aaron Judge – OF – New York Yankees
· Shohei Ohtani – RHP/DH – Los Angeles Angels
Well said Jeff. And please, rant away. I believe it’s a minority that is content with a third place finish, if it even was a third place finish. You might could say it was 6th. I don’t even know. How many teams were still playing when our season ended?
I remain in recovery. And watching the Rams lay an egg didn’t help.
I don’t believe the Dodgers will go with 6 rookies, though if they did I think I’d be ok with it. If a $300 million payroll couldn’t get it done I’m sure the same thing could be accomplished with a reset. But explain that thinking to Freeman and Mookie. And, would we lead the league in attendance with that roster?
I have no idea what the plan may be. I haven’t really thought about what my plan would be. With each passing year I get more weary and less engaged. I’m fairly certain it’s going to be a long winter for LA fans.
Thank you for your work here Jeff. You do a damm fine job with this site.
“I remain in recovery. And watching the Rams lay an egg didn’t help.”
I didn’t realize you were such a masochist. May I recommend the Lakers.
You may. The Lakers make the Rams look better.
Rumor that the Mets are interested in Trea Turner. The Mets being the Mets will probably have Turner at SS and Lindor at 2B
Neither one of those 2 would be happy moving to 2nd. I’m guessing that rumor was put out there by Trea’s agent.
I think Lindor is the better fielder so if either moved it would be Trea and he isn’t going to sign somewhere to become a second baseman.
He’ll have plenty of options. Just off the top of my head:
Dodgers
Giants
Phillies
Braves (if Swanson leaves)
Cards
Cubs
Marlins (if he really wants to go home and gives them a massive discount)
Nats (if new owner is in place and wants to make a splash)
Angels (if new owner is in place and wants to spend big)
Orioles (low payroll so they might pay him to build around)
I’m sure I’m missing a couple. In any case, the bidding will be hot and heavy.
Once Turner cashes in, he might accept CF.
I think he dislikes center even more than second base.
He’s signing to be a shortstop, at least for the next few years.
You make some good pts but I think you’re over reacting to the limited info Kasten is giving. But to your remarks, would we be any worse off with Outman in CF instead of Belli? Vargas at 3rd or LF instead of Turner or Taylor? Can we add a young starter or two to go along with Urias, May Gonsolin and probably Kershaw? I think so. Does this allow us to make a big move at the trade deadline? Yes.
Yes we didn’t go as far as we should/ could have, same with the Mets and Braves. Let’s keep rolling the dice!
Outman over Bellinger? Absurd. Outman’s K ratio is much higher. And the kid has played less than a full season at AAA. Bellinger will be back, and with the shift eliminated, he will hit for a higher average, also his defense is still the best in the league and he is only 27.
But can Bellinger’s $19M salary be better spent elsewhere. Outman will be as good or better defensively and cost about $18M less. Neither one will benefit from the elimination of the shift if they don’t make more consistent contact. A Mercedes is a better car than a Ford but both will reliably get you from point A to point B.
The Dodgers need to improve against lefty pitchers. Where do the Dodgers add a lefty killer bat into the lineup and how much will that player cost in salary or prospects?
You ask a valid question (s). “Would we be any worse off with Outman in CF instead of Belli? Vargas at 3rd or LF instead of Turner or Taylor?”
That is also the big question facing AF/BG right now.
I do not know if the Dodgers would be a better team with Outman in CF over Belli. At 23, Cody Bellinger won the NL MVP. It is hard to ignore that. He still hit 19 HRs at the ML level in 2022. Belli plays better defense and is a better baserunner. The only reason he is even considered a non-tender candidate is because he will be earning $18MM + next season. If Belli were non-tendered and then agreed to an incentive laden contract with $10MM guaranteed with another $10MM in incentives, I think most LAD fans would take Belli over Outman. I know I would. With Scott Boras as his agent, I do not think that is a possibility. So the real question is, can the Dodgers do better with $18MM than spend it on Cody Bellinger?
Outman had a remarkable 2022 season, and I believe he deserved LAD MiLB POY over Diego Cartaya, but I do not get a vote. Cartaya may end up with a better career, but he did not have a better year than did Outman. However, Outman will be 26 next season. Belli will be playing as a 27 year old. Baseball age is strange. Maybe everyone knows it, but just in case…a baseball age is determined by what the players age will be on June 30.
Vargas over Turner or Taylor? I do not think CT3 will be in the discussion for the regular LF in 2023. I am guessing that Vargas will be a regular in the lineup. LF or 3B? I have no idea at this point.
But if JT is eliminated, are you convinced that Vargas will put up better production than .278/.350/.438/.788 with an OPS+ of 116, 2.0 bWAR and 2.4 fWAR? And in a not so small sample size (154 PA), WRISP – .339/.429/.579/1.007?
I will wait until I see what the Dodgers actually do this winter. Maybe Kasten is doing his sleight of hand routine with his youth movement remarks. Maybe he is building up the youth for trades. It is hard to trade quality youth if you do not believe in them. It is hard to convince a team to accept one of the MLB ready prospects, when you do not believe they are good enough to play on your team. Or he is being literal with advising us to expect a youth movement. We will soon see.
This.
I don’t know which of the Dodger prospects will step up but I do know that I won’t be unhappy if Justin, Max, Cody, Chris do not return. That’s quite a few positions to replace. Those players might be jettisoned a year too early or if retained, a year too late.
If Kershaw wants to return he will be allowed to return. I think Justin only returns if he gets a two year Utley contract to allow him to be on the team in 2023 with a smaller impact to the CBT and then he retires or plays elsewhere.
I’m okay with Lux at SS but not okay with Max, Busch, or Taylor at 2B. Maybe a middle infield of Lux and Betts would work.
The in-house outfield if Betts moves to second would be Thompson, Outman, and Pages. Too many question marks with that outfield and questions would not be reduced if Vargas were added to the mix.
My bottom line is that I don’t mind using the regular season to season some of the younger players for the post season. A little cumin here and there adds flavor. I don’t want to keep the already seasoned players in order to win 105+ games. That team is over seasoned with K-sauce.
Justin, Max, Cody and Chris totaled 6.4 WAR between them. That figure should be accomplished by any two of them.
I believe Muncy and Bellinger will be better next year. Not at all sure what Turner and Taylor are worth.
Great stuff again Jeff. I don’t think there will be a full-scale rookie attack though. They are going to have to see how these guys perform, and that is what spring training is all about. I think Vargas will make the roster, but I cannot see that guy in the outfield.
FWIW, the Dodgers beat reporter, Jack Harris, had the following to add in reference to Kasten’s interview:
This will be important context to remember this offseason. Dodgers will go after FAs if they feel fit is right. But they’re also confident they have 6-7 young players potentially capable of MLB impact next year
Some have compared it to the young wave they brought up in 2019
6-7? MLB impact?
Define impact.
Are you asking me to define impact as Harris intended?
Beyond my skill-set, but we can probably reverse engineer.
I think in 2019, the Dodgers had: Lux, Gonsolin, Smith, Beatty, Rios, Garlik, Verdugo and probably a couple more.
So, impact is the range from Beatty to Smith of that year?
Also, I’m unsure who the “some” in Harris’ final line is/are. If they are fans (hope not), fellow reporters/bloggers (better than fans) or team officials off-the-record (ideal) I think the latter, but whonose?
I am with you, that I have no idea what Jack Harris was referencing. And like you I will not speak for him. But Kasten’s specific comment was:
“Earlier in the last decade, we had a wave of young guys who were going to be real contributors,” Kasten told the Los Angeles Times this past week. “We think we are now on the precipice of the next wave of young guys. We need to make room to allow that to happen.”
He was talking about “”Earlier in the last decade”, not 2019. He was quite clear to me. IMO, Kasten was referring to Seager, Bellinger, Joc, Urías, and Puig. They also already had an Ace headed to the HOF.
The players you mentioned above, Lux and Smith appear to be the two staples on the roster. Verdugo was packaged for Mookie. Ríos is a platoon 1B/3B/DH/PH. Gonsolin was 25 in 2019 and was certainly not an impact player until he was 28. Beaty was traded for a lottery ticket. Garlick? He was 27 in his 2019 debut and has never been a “real contributor”. Does 27 qualify for youth movement? He was traded for Tyler Gilbert, and has been waived twice (Phillies and Braves).
So if the thought was that the next wave will be like the one in 2019, I would agree that it has that capability. I just do not think that it was anything special. One AS selection in the group. But I believe he was referring to the group I indicated above. Now if the idea is to package them like Verdugo to get an impact player, I am all in.
Totally agree on all counts, except I probably think more highly of Gonsolin, May, Smith and Lux than you.
I mean if this crop could also provide four (4) players at that level, it would be super-amazing to me.
Most of us liked the young wave that arrived in the 70s as well which included Lopes, Russell, Cey, Garvey and Yeager. Mix in Baker and Reggie Smith and the Dodgers went from a low scoring boring offensive team to one that produced.
Gibson added attitude. Reggie Smith went into the stands in SF to whack on a loudmouth racist fan. The more I think about it the more I want Correa.
If we want attitude (and I subscribe to that), Correa may be the answer.
May and Muncy to Guardians for Bieber.
Busch and Jackson/Grove for Gelof.
Outman, Pages, Taylor, Ferguson, and Knack for Reynolds. (more of less)
Sign Correa.
Sign Pederson.
Non-tender Bellinger
2B Lux
RF Betts
1B Freeman
SS Correa
CF Reynolds
C Smith
LF Pederson and Vargas
3B Justin and Amaya as the bridge to Gelof
DH Vargas and Pederson
No outside to relief corps.
Kershaw, Urias, Bieber, Gonsolin, Stone, Miller
IMHO, this is one of your better fantasies. The lineup is definitely interesting and although I doubt all those trades would happen, at least the chance is less than zero.
Miller, however, is not ready for the big show. He needs to spend most of his year refining his stuff at OKC. Add Pepiot or bring back Anderson or Heany, or find this year’s Anderson/Heaney.
I think Amaya only makes sense at shortstop, so why don’t we sub Rios as JT’s help mate.
Just like Friedman, I forgot about Rios. Although Amaya would be useful elsewhere in the infield now that Taylor was traded.
The only reason the Guardians are even considering moving Bieber is to eliminate his arbitration cost, and then to parlay that into 3-4 MLB ready prospects. Otherwise there is no reason to move him. Muncy ($13.5MM) costs more than Bieber (projected $10.7MM). And May would be one of the 3-4 MLB ready prospects. Bieber will require an overpay, and it will not include a ML player making more than a couple of $MM. May is projected at $1.4 which Cleveland would gladly assume.
Cleveland needs offense and 1st base is a need.
Rios would cost a lot less.
May, Busch, Rios.
Forget the Gelof deal.
Cleveland was #16 in OPS (.699) in 2022. Just behind San Diego (.700). So basically right in the middle.
Cleveland was #3 in ERA (2.65). Bieber was the Ace on that staff.
Josh Naylor was the Guardians 1B. He batted .256/.319/.452/.771 with an OPS+ of 121.
Max Muncy batted .196/.329/.384/.713 and an OPS+ of 96.
Muncy is 2 months shy of 7 years older than Naylor. The Guardians have control over Naylor for 3 years. He is projected to make $3.5MM in his first year of arbitration.
So the Guardians are going to take a 1B who is nearly 7 years older than the one they currently have. Naylor had a much better year. Naylor is on the rise, and Muncy is in decline. Naylor will make $3.5MM and Muncy will make $13.5MM. The Guardians would not trade Naylor straight up for Muncy, much less consider him an upgrade to trade their Ace. I can appreciate that you do not think Muncy is very good. You are certainly not alone in that belief. But yet you believe he is good enough to get a 27 year old Ace who has won the CY award in a trade?
I have been on record for a couple of years now that I am a Shane Bieber fan, and would love for him to be a Dodger. I am willing to do an overpay for Bieber. I do not know what Cleveland believes would be an overpay, but I know it is not Max Muncy and Dustin May. That would just be insulting to Cleveland. Start with May, Miller, and Vargas. That might get Cleveland to take the phone call.
Cleveland won 92 and aren’t losing anyone of note to free agency. Trade their ace? That’s not only silly, it’s stupid.
did I just say that?
Yes. Yes I did.
And you said it quite well, IMHO.
It is Cleveland beat writers who are saying that Bieber is available. I am not pulling that out of my ***. But it will have to be an overpay. I would be willing to overpay for Bieber, but I doubt that AF will.
Cleveland is also making it known that Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac are more likely to be traded. Neither of those will interest the Dodgers. Maybe Cal Quantrill. But I doubt that as well.
I also do not believe that the possibility of Bieber being traded is stupid. Unlikely sure. But not stupid.
You cannot think about this in a vacuum. Cleveland is not like the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Philly, SD or any of the high payroll teams.
Cleveland has 2 years of control over Bieber.
Bieber will sign for huge dollars in 2 years, $25MM to $30MM AAV for 7-10 years. A Zack Greinke Arizona contract?? David Price? Steven Strasburg?
Cleveland will not sign Bieber for that amount. EVER.
They did not extend Francisco Lindor. They did not extend Mike Clevinger (pre TJ) or Trevor Bauer.
Cleveland already has one player on extension, José Ramírez, their superstar 3B, at $20MM AAV for 7 years. One 9 figure contract is their limit.
Will they win with Bieber in 2023? Highly unlikely, and then it is down to one year control.
Will Cleveland get more from Bieber on 2 years control or one?
Maybe they wait to see what happens in 2023 and make him more available at the deadline. I have no clue. But if a team offers Cleveland an overpay, he could be traded.
If Cleveland gets a top pitcher prospect or two in return, and with Triston McKenzie ready to assume the Ace moniker, and Daniel Espino not far away, and still two more top 100 pitchers at AA, I do not think Cleveland will be hurting for pitching.
With all of that, I agree that it is highly doubtful that Cleveland will move Bieber, but it is not a stupid comment.
I never said it was a stupid comment. I said Cleveland trading a team controlled ace after winning 92 games would be stupid. He’s not a free agent until ‘25. They aren’t rebuilding there, they just did, and it worked. They would be stupid to blow it up now. They aren’t stupid.
I knew what you meant by stupid. I did not take offense.
Cleveland has no money for FA. They are already projected to be $100MM+. They were at $90MM last year. Just how are they going to get better? By trading Aaron Civale or Zach Plesac? With their prospects, they are more likely to become true contenders in 2025. Minnesota and ChiSox are likely to pass them by in 2023 because they are willing to spend and/or trade. Seattle figures to get better. So does Texas. Toronto is not going backwards, and Baltimore is now poised to make a significant move. They are doing in 2023 what I suspect Cleveland could do in 2025. Baltimore will add the #2 overall prospect (SS Gunnar Henderson) and #4 overall and #1 pitcher (RHP Grayson Rodriguez) to their 2023 rosters.
Every Cleveland player is controlled to 2026 except Amed Rosario and Shane Bieber. Daniel Espino RHP (#15), George Valera OH (#31), Gavin Williams RHP (#53), Brayan Rocchio SS/2B (#69), Bo Naylor C (#75), and Tanner Bibbee RHP (#99), should all be on the roster by 2025. For those who expect all of the LAD top 100 prospects to be impact players, then why not the Guardians? My point is that the Dodgers are looking to contend now, while Cleveland will have every one of their significant players currently on the roster except Bieber and Rosario, plus their top 100 prospects thru 2025. Everything points to contending in 2025.
Not that I would do the deal, but what if the Dodgers were willing to trade Dustin May, Ryan Pepiot, Miguel Vargas, and Michael Busch for Shane Bieber. Don’t say can’t happen, because San Diego has made similar trades. Somebody will offer at least something similar.
Amed Rosario or Shane Bieber will be traded this winter. Stupid or not.
2025 will be Cleveland’s best chance since 2016.
Moron.
I would do that trade. I’ll find another way of unloading Max. Maybe he takes Rizzo:s place on Yankees if Rizzo doesn’t re-sign.
You made my case for jettisoning Muncy.
Stop the Presses!
We just picked up a guy named Luke Williams from the Marlins off waivers.
26 years old, from Dana Point, plays outfield, third and second.
His lifetime OPS+ is 72.
So the only question here is whether he’s our opening day left fielder, third baseman or second baseman.
Well, actually, there is another question: with a roster crunch and trying to squeeze a lot of guys into the 40 man this winter why the heck does Andrew take up a spot with this guy?
Wait a minute, the obvious answer is that he’s the main guy in the Bieber trade we’re doing.
You are absolutely right about this. Williams is not good enough to make the Marlins 40 man but he is for the Dodgers. What does that say about JT and Belli? Well…Bye?
I do remember seeing him in Sacramento last year when he was with SF. Last year he played 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF, DH in MiLB. He actually was a good AAA player with some speed.
I guess this is the power hitting RH bat the Dodgers are expecting? 1 HR in 124 PA. This is the type of pickup that AF loves. I actually do not expect to see him on the 40 man in ST. Maybe he is the next Max Muncy. If so, they are going to need to clear him through waivers and assign him to OKC. Will he get through waivers again. He got all the way to LAD, so maybe.
He’s not the next Max Muncy, he’s the next Eddie Alvarez, but a right handed version.
Emmet Sheehan was absolutely DOMINANT in AFL action today:
The Dodgers prospect struck out 8 batters in a row and finished with 10 punchouts.
Sheehan is really exciting. When he’s on he’s amazing, and that happens more often than not, but not quite often enough yet.
Since 2005, only one pitcher had racked up at least eight strikeouts while allowing no runs with one or fewer hits and walks in the AFL.
On Tuesday, the Dodgers’ Emmet Sheehan became the second: https://atmlb.com/3FVuRtf
Dodgers decline options on Alberto and Nelson. No word yet on Duffy or JT.
Alberto’s and Nelson’s options declined. Williams is nothing more than AAA depth at this point. I do not think there is any message there
What about the message that says they’re willing to give him a spot on the 40-man when there is already going to be a roster crunch. My guess is that they dfa him soon and hope he passes through waivers so they can stash him at OKC.
He’s the great grand nephew of Ted. Give him a chance.
The Dodgers are down to 35 or 36 on the 40 man (depending on Trevor Bauer). Don’t forget the Dodgers will need to have space for their Rule 5 candidates. Two OFers figure to be added (Andy Pages and José Ramos). I am guessing that Jonny DeLuca and maybe Ryan Ward will get consideration, but will probably be left unprotected. Diego Cartaya and Michael Busch are no-brainers to be protected. Maybe Carlos Duran? I actually can see Duran being drafted and put into a bottom tiered team’s bullpen for the year. He fits right in with Pittsburgh or Oakland.
As I said, I saw Luke Williams in Sacramento when he was with the Giants. He was a decent AAA player with some speed. I am not sure he is more than a AAAA player. He is more of a new Zach McKinstry. He has played every position but P and C.
Dodgers decline Danny Duffy option. Only one left is JT.
40 man sits at 34-35 depending on Trevor Bauer.