Now that we have given AF the best possible advice on what to do with SS, we turn out attention to 3B. What are the 3B options facing AF and LAD?
Internal – JT, Max, Miguel Vargas, Edwin Ríos
A big decision is awaiting AF and the Dodgers on the $16MM team option for Justin Turner. There is a $2MM buyout. I know it is easy to simply dismiss JT because of his age. But he still played in 128 games with 532 PA as a 37 year old. About half his games were at 3B, and half his games were DH. With a year older, I would expect his games at 3B to decrease, so is he more DH than 3B now?
Offensively he batted .278/.350/.438/.788. He had a bWAR of 1.9 and a fWAR of 2.4, with an OPS+ of 116. If he can duplicate those numbers, he will justify a $16MM contract.
I know that if not Freddie Freeman up WRISP, then I most wanted Mr. Clutch, JT. JT was not just outstanding in this metric as a LAD, but also overall in MLB.
.339/.429/.579/1.008 – OPS #2 LAD and #7 MLB – SLG #1 LAD and #8 MLB.
Defensively JT was +1 in DRS but -2 in OAA. Not bad, but not positive. The Dodgers do not have a Nolan Arenado at 3B, so this position is going to be more of an offensive choice than defensive.
Unfortunately, that excellence did not transfer into the post season. He was 2-13 in the NLDS, with no RBIs. So was his regular season more emblematic of what might come, or was the post season?
The next internal option was his counterpart in 2022…Max Muncy. Muncy was absolutely horrendous thru July. After 339 PA, he was batting .161/.310/.303/.613 with 9 HRs and 32 RBIs. Just horrid for a middle of the lineup bat.
After August 1, in 226 PA, Muncy batted a far more representative line of .247/.358/.500/.858. 12 HRs and 37 RBIs.
For the season, he was still below Mendoza batting .196/.329/.384/.713. He had a bWAR of 2.7, fWAR 2.4, and an OPS+ of 96.
Defensively he was a curious -2 OAA and +7 DRS, and a -4.3 UZR. He had 10 errors at 3B: 5 fielding and 5 throwing as a 3B. He had 2 more (fielding) as a 2B.
Muncy had such a good August that the Dodgers decided to exercise his 2023 option and give him a 2024 option. Max played as a 31 year old so he is no way over the hill. Was it his elbow that did not heal properly? If so, we might expect another 35 HR, .800+ OPS, and 120+ OPS+ season. He is certainly worth the $13.5MM contract he is due for next year. I, for one, believe he will have a big year in 2023.
The 3B many have seemingly forgotten about is 28 year old LH batting Edwin Ríos. Ríos has light tower power and was just starting to take off when he strained his hamstring. That may have been how it was described, but per Dave Roberts it was more of a Grade 3 or Grade 4 tear. He went on the IL after his June 2 game, and started his rehab in OKC on July 28 (56 days). He stayed in OKC the remainder of the season.
In 92 MLB PA, Ríos batted .244/.293/.500/.793. He had 7 HRs and 17 RBIs. That is 1 HR/13 PA. That is impressive power. He had a 0.1 bWAR and fWAR with a 114 OPS+. What brought Ríos’ WAR down, was his 39.1% K rate. In order for Ríos to be more than a bench player, that number needs to come down from putrid to simply excessive.
His strikeouts were high for August and September in AAA, but his OPS was right around .840.
Ríos has a big bat, but he might need that proverbial change of scenery to become the best player he can as an everyday player. His best value as a LAD may just be as pat of a trade.
Miguel Vargas is the wild card here. His hit tool is not questioned. He has hit wherever he has played. He has great plate discipline as well as hand-eye coordination. His power is marginal, but it is present.
He will be 23 on 11/17/2022. Not old, but also not an uber prospect.
He has played 3B most of his professional career. He is clearly more comfortable at 3B than in LF. Do you take a plus hitter with questionable defensive metrics out of his comfort zone? That is going to be a question the Dodgers will be asking, and we will learn of the answer come ST. I do not like taking a rookie and playing him in multiple positions. Put him in his comfort zone and leave him there. If the team decides it is LF, then leave him there. If it is 3B, leave him there. He was not groomed to be a utility player, so why try to make him one (3B/1B/LF). If the Dodgers decide to give Vargas half of his starts as a DH, I am more than OK with that. I hope he gets his 502 PA to qualify in the batting leadership categories. If he does, he will be in the ROY discussion.
Free Agents – Now that Nolan Arenado decided to opt in, there really is no elite 3B FA to consider (or even non-elite). Here is a list of non JT 3B FA:
Ehire Adrianza (33)
Hanser Alberto (30)
Charlie Culberson (34)
Brandon Drury (30)
Matt Duffy (32)
Maikel Franco (30)
Phil Gosselin (34)
Josh Harrison (35) – $5.625MM club option with $1.5MM buyout
Evan Longoria (37) – $13MM club option with a $5MM buyout
Jace Peterson (33)
Donovan Solano (35)
Jonathan Villar (32)
I have always liked Josh Harrison, but at 35 he is just another support utility infielder. LAD has CT3 in that role. I also believe that Chicago is leaning to exercise their option on him. IMO, Evan Longoria’s club option will not be picked up and it will cost the Giants $5MM (too bad, so sad). As favorable as Longoria is to AF, there is no chance he looks to Longoria to continue his career with LAD. Evan was AF’s very first draft pick with Tampa Bay. AF did alright with his first picks for both Tampa Bay and LAD.
Brandon Drury? Many of us liked him as a candidate for down the stretch RH bat, but all of the RH ABs are going to go to Miguel Vargas until he proves he cannot hit ML pitching. The Dodgers are betting that he will hit ML pitching, and I have to agree with that assessment. Will that be at 3B? If Vargas struggles at the ML level, look for AF to look to acquire yet another RH bat at the trade deadline.
Jonathan Villar is another I have liked, but he is also a trade deadline type candidate and not a regular for a WS contender.
I think it is clear (at least in my mind), that the Dodgers will not go the FA route for a 3B, unless it is for JT after they choose to buy out his club option. And even then he would be more of a part-time 3B and more of a DH. A more expensive (but much better) Hanser Alberto if you will.
Trade Candidates – There are so many internal options, and there are so very few quality ML trade candidates. But there is one (maybe two). AF has steadfastly maintained that he will inquire about any potential game changer that could be available. Boston’s Rafael Devers is that guy. At 25 in 2022, he was an All Star for the 2nd consecutive year.
Offensively – Devers hit .295/.358/.521/.879 – 18.6% K rate and 8.1% BB rate – 4.9 fWAR, 4.4 bWAR, and 141 OPS+. Devers is in the top tier of hard hit, EV, and barrels. He is below average in the chase and whiff percentages, similar to Trea Turner.
Devers is below average defensively, -2 OAA and -6 DRS, -2.3 UZR. During the season, this is minimized, but it gets noticed in the post season. Of course, two horrendous defenders, Nick Castellanos and Alec Bohm, have had good defensive WS.
Did AF take advantage of Boston in the Mookie Betts deal? Of course he did. Maybe AF can do it again by trading for Devers and agreeing to pick up Trevor Story’s contract. That would free up enough cash to pay Xander Bogaerts, or to pursue any of the other SS FA. The Dodgers could give Boston the prospects to make a good deal if they so choose. Thus far, Devers is making it tough for Boston to extend. Boston has pushed their offer to $200MM, more in line with Austin Riley’s 10 year $212MM contract with Atlanta. Devers is asking for a 10 year and $300MM + deal.
I would love to see Devers as a LAD in 2023. However, I cannot see AF wanting to extend Devers at $300MM+, and he is not going to give up the player capital required to acquire him for one year.
Chaim Bloom says that his #1 priority is to extend Bogaerts. Can they extend both Bogaerts and Devers? Probably not. One will be available.
Yandy Díaz (Tampa Bay) – Another good offensive and poor (okay bad) defensive option.
Offensively – .296/.401/.423/.824 – 10.8% K rate and 14% BB rate – 3.5 bWAR, 3.8 fWAR, 143 OPS+.
He does not chase or whiff at all. One of the very few MLB hitters with more walks than strikeouts. He punishes 4-seamers and sinkers.
He hits RHP and LHP almost equally well.
He is more of a ground ball hitter, who hits up the middle (> 55%). Maybe without the shift, he gets more hits up the middle. Maybe we will again start to hear…”hit up the middle, and thru for a base hit.”
I do not expect any of the following to be available:
- Austin Riley (Atlanta)
- Manny Machado (San Diego)
- Eugenio Suarez (Seattle)
- Matt Chapman (Toronto)
- Alex Bregman (Houston)
- Ryan McMahon (Colorado)
The following could be available, but they will not even move the interest meter an inch:
- Eduardo Escobar (NYM) – More of a deadline trade candidate.
- Josh Donaldson (NYY) – Also more of a deadline trade candidate, but only if NYY pays the entirety of his salary.
- Jeimer Candelario (Detroit)
- Yoan Moncada (ChiSox) (No Bums, AF is not going to trade for him)
- Josh Rojas (Arizona)
- Patrick Wisdom (Cubs)
- Gio Urshela (Minnesota)
Miguel Vargas is the #5 ranked 3B prospect by MLB Pipeline, and those above him are undoubtedly not going to be made available:
Jordan Walker – St. Louis – Will have to move because of Nolan Arenado, but moving will be to another position, not another team. He is getting a lot more OF play this past year, primarily RF. His bat is his ticket, and he has a good one. He will get a lot more OF in AAA in 2023, and could get called to MLB at 21 next summer. If you like to follow non-LAD prospects (as I do), Jordan Walker is one to watch.
Brett Baty (NYM) and Josh Jung (Texas) – Both made their MLB debuts this past summer. It is doubtful that NYM or Texas will make either 3B prospect available, but AF should not be shy in asking.
And for Bums, I do not consider Zack Gelof in this scenario, because he is not ready to help next year, and this exercise is what might the team do for the 26 man team in 2023.
Prediction – JT’s option will not be picked up by the Dodgers, but he will sign a Chase Utley type contract to give JT some guaranteed dollars, but just as important a place in the LAD clubhouse.
JT, Max, and Miggy Vargas will be a three headed monster at 3B/DH.
I wanted the Dodgers to spend international money on Yoan Moncada and instead they saved their allotment for Alvarez. As I said before, we were both wrong as Yoan has only had one good year offensively and about 4 much less than good.
Jeff, my brain says you have analyzed Gelof’s readiness and talent and have been right about drafts and prospects many times so my brain accepts your take on Gelof. My gut disagrees though. It says Gelof would win the 3b job in Spring Training or be called up by June 1, 2023.
The Dodgers have a handful of desirable prospects. If traded, who knows who will be targeted. Like you have said, the Dodgers have weaknesses at LF, 3B, SS, CF and offense against lefty pitchers.
Hitting Machines–A look back at AAA.
Gavin Lux — .392/.478/.719/1.197 in 49 AAA games.
Bill Russell — .363 /.397 /.498 / .895 in 55 AAA games
Joc Pederson — .303 / .435 / .582 / 1.017 121 in AAA games
Miguel Vargas — .304 / .404 /.511 / .915 in 113 AAA games
I understand you are not a fan of Miguel Vargas. I am not sure why when it comes to offense. I also understand you are a big fan of Joc. I have always maintained that I am indifferent with Joc. While with LAD I like him. When not, he is another player. I have supported Joc far more than not supported him. I have written multiple positive columns on Joc and never a negative one.
But to compare Joc with Vargas is a bit unfair. They are two different players. What might Vargas’ numbers have been if he played his AAA games in Albuquerque, as Joc did, and not OKC. Joc has always been a prolific power hitter, and Vargas has always been a contact hitter. Joc was an excellent CF especially in MiLB. Vargas is not a good defensive player.
But let’s complete the picture:
Joc at AA – .278/.381/.497/.878
Vargas at AA – .321/.386/.523/.909
Joc K rate at AA – 21.9%, at AAA – 26.9%
Vargas K rate at AA – 15.4%, at AAA – 14.6%
Joc is 30 and Vargas is 22.
Two different hitters…two different players. Both can be a fit, and maybe on the same team. Although I doubt that Joc leaves SF.
BTW, I have always maintained that Lux is a better hitter than what he has shown thus far. When he takes the Freddie approach he is a .300++ hitter. When he takes the RVS/Brown/Bates approach, not so much. When he was in MiLB, he generally took the Freddie spray the ball around the yard approach.
I object to Vargas being called a hitting machine. You have made me skeptical of his defense. Based on their AAA performances, Russell and Lux were hitting machines. Vargas is a good contact doubles guy. He is a guy I can root for though. I prefer Gelof because of his speed. Same reason I thought Smith would be better than Ruiz.
I think Joc is a fun guy to root for and accept what he is and is not.
To be fair (to me), I always put “hitting machine” in quotes. That was not my moniker, but Dave Roberts’. I do consider him a good hitter. For me, an MiLB hitter with a career line of .313/.390/.488/.878 in 1,850 PA is a good hitter. Not a machine, but good. Will that translate to MLB? I would like to see him try. He is a better hitter than any other prospect in the LAD organization, including Diego Cartaya.
I will leave the hitting machine labels for MiLB players to certain bloggers who think that Alex Verdugo and Keibert Ruiz are hitting machines. For me, I will leave that label to hitters like Tony Gwynn, George Brett, Ichiro, Wade Boggs, Rod Carew, and of course Pete Rose.
I wasn’t including you with those who have called Vargas a hitting machine.
After reading all the interest in trading for other team’s young players I am left thinking – our system is supposed to be pretty good, why don’t we give them a try?
I go with Vargas early and live through his growing pains. Outman strikes out a lot. So does Rios. Hey, only the geezer fans give a crap about that. The Dodgers don’t. If those two can OPS .800+ in the bigs then promote them and let ’em hack, or trade them for middle relief, a position we no doubt are going to need again.
We won’t make any meaningful outside moves until we know what Turner is going to do. We wait.
We had a good team this year. They coughed up a hairball, again, in post season. Personally I don’t believe it’s possible to construct a playoff successful squad in April. You can put together a strong group of ballers, keep them as healthy as possible, make July moves, then turn them all loose and hope for the best.
Im hoping for the best, and working hard on expecting nothing.
The effect of eliminating the shift will be interesting to see. I’m sure the Dodgers analytics department have enough information available to know which players will benefit and which will not. I can see a player like Muncy benefiting since the rover won’t be available. As for Diaz, don’t know enough about him. However, even with the elimination of shifts, teams can still place the second baseman just to the right of the base. Players could then be in the vicinity to field balls hit up the middle.
When looking at Yandy Diaz, I am not suggesting the Dodgers should trade for him. He is just an option. But I do not think he is anywhere on the AF radar. I have always believed that it is going to be Max/JT/Vargas/Ríos. 3B is a question because of what to do about JT, and then Vargas/Ríos. But IMO it is and was always going to be filled internally. But I did not want to ignore other possibilities.
And you may be right about Diaz. If you look at his spray chart, most ground balls up the middle are on the 3B side of 2B, but certainly a ball that a SS with good range could get to. But you cannot ignore that he does not strike out. I like players who make contact. Personal preference.
Not disagreeing with you. As this past post season has shown, making contact, even while making an out can make a big difference in whether a team wins or loses.
We will all learn, in due course, how the elimination of the shift will play out (as well as the other rule changes). I’ve got to wonder with the new rules, whether the emphasis on three true outcomes becomes obsolete and speed/making contact becomes paramount.
As an aside, to what extent will the pitch clock affect veteran pitchers like Kershaw.
Good question on the clock. I am not sure how it would affect Kershaw. I do not know if Kersh is slow or not. The pitch clock has never been a concern of mine. I always like baseball because it did not have a clock. I am not against the clock, I just have not thought about the impact it will have, especially on LAD pitchers.
BTW, with respect to any possible impact the time clock might have with the LAD pitchers, I would be most appreciative if anyone wanted to look into it and write an article on it. I think it would be a good topic. Maybe expand on it with the other rule changes.
My Preferences:
Excellent analysis as always Jefe. Love it. I also think they decline JT’s option, but I think it will be an unpopular move for most fans, especially after he just won the Clemente Award and all he does for the citizens of LA. They might take it as a slap in the face. I am not as impressed with Vargas as most, but I do recognize that he really did not get much of a shot. I did not like him in the outfield at all, same with Lux. They both looked extremely uncomfortable out there. Drury would be a short-term solution at best. Longoria is over the hill. I would like to see them pry Devers away from Boston, but like you said, AF would no unload talent for a rental. Plus Devers hits left handed.
My preferences for opening day 2023:
JT and Max – share 3B and DH, same as last year
Vargas – left field (hopefully he spends lots of time out there during his winter break and becomes comfortable in that position). I’d much rather see him in left than at 3B.
Rios – I don’t think their heavy k rate allows both Edwin and Trayce to occupy roster spots at the same time. Time to free Rios and let him develop in another uniform. Attached to some other pieces, he could be a help in bringing back something interesting.
Bench – Barnes, CT3, Trayce
If Alberto’s option isn’t picked up, think about signing my longtime favorite Donovan Solano. Lifetime average of about .280, hits equally well against both lefties and righties. Can play 2nd, 3rd, DH and has even played a little 1B.
If we sign one of the top 4 shortstops (Trea is still my preference), I’m good with giving center field to Outman to start the year and waving good-bye to Belli. If we can’t sign a top shortstop then try for Reynolds in a trade.