We learned late Monday that the NLDS Game 1 starters will be RHP Mike Clevinger vs LHP Julio Urias. On first glance this looks to be a clear advantage to LAD.
- Julio Urías – 175 IP, 2.16 ERA (NL #1, MLB #2), 0.96 WHIP, .199 BA
- Julio Urías vs San Diego 2022 – 4 GS, 24.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 1.042 WHIP, 3 HR
- Mike Clevinger – 114.1 IP, 4.33 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .233 BA
- Mike Clevinger vs LAD 2022 – 3 GS, 13.0 IP, 9.69 ERA, 1.539 WHIP, 5 HR
Urías vs. Padres Batters:
- Manny Machado – 9/25, .360/.407/.840/1.247, 4 HR
- Wil Myers – 3/23, .130/.259/.174/.433
- Juan Soto – 1/16, .063/.167/.250/.417, 1 HR
- Jake Cronenworth – 2/15, .133/.235/.400/.635, 1 HR
- Jurickson Profar – 2/14, .143/.200/.143/.343
- Austin Nola – 3/13, .231/.231/.231/.462
- Josh Bell – 3/9, .333/.400/.333/.733
- Ha-Seong Kim – 0/9 with 6 walks, .000/.400/.000/.400
- Trent Grisham – 0/7, .000/.125/.000/.125
- Brandon Drury – 1/5, .200/.333/.200/.533
Mike Clevinger vs LAD Batters:
- Mookie Betts – 7/14, .500/.588/.714/1.303
- Joey Gallo – 1/12, .083/.214/.083/.298
- Trea Turner – 4/10, .400/.455/.400/.855
- Will Smith – 4/7, .571/.625/1.429/2.054, 2 HR
- Freddie Freeman – 1/7, .143/.125/.571/.696, 1 HR
- Max Muncy – 2/6, .333/.333/.833/1.167, 1 HR
- Trayce Thompson – 2/5, .400/.400/1.000/1.400, 1 HR
- Cody Bellinger – 0/4, .000/.200/.000/.200
- Chris Taylor – 1/3, – single and walk
- Justin Turner – 1/3, – single and walk
- Gavin Lux – 1/2, – single
- Austin Barnes – 0/2
- Hanser Alberto – 1/1, double
The Dodgers are a better hitting team against RHP. The Padres have 2 LHP starters…Blake Snell and Sean Manaea. Snell has given the Dodgers problems in the past and he has been given problems by LAD hitters. Also the Dodgers hitters work him to build up the pitch count. Dodger hitters own Manaea.
Game 2 pitchers will be Yu Darvish vs Clayton Kershaw
- Clayton Kershaw – 126.1 IP, 2.28 ERA, 0.942 WHIP, .206 BA
- Clayton Kershaw vs San Diego 2022 – 2 GS, 12.0 IP, 0.75 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 0 HR
- Yu Darvish – 194.2 IP, 3.10 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, .207 BA
- Yu Darvish vs LAD 2022 – 4 GS, 25.0 IP, 2.52 ERA, 0.920 WHIP, 4 HR
Position by Position Comparative Breakdown
Catcher
- Will Smith – .260/.343/.465/.808; +7 DRS
- Austin Nola – .251/.321/.329/.650; -10 DRS (combined with Alfaro)
- Big Advantage – Dodgers
1st Base
- Freddie Freeman – .325/.407/.511/.918 – MVP Candidate, Gold Glove Winner
- Josh Bell – .266/.362/.422/.784
- Big Advantage – Dodgers
2nd Base
- Gavin Lux – .276/.346/.399/.745
- Jake Cronenworth – .239/.332/.390/.722
- Because of the late season injury, and his resultant slump…
- Small Advantage – Padres (although I could be convinced otherwise)
3rd Base
- Justin Turner – .278/.350/.438/.788
- Manny Machado – .298/.366/.531/.897 – MVP Candidate, Gold Glove Winner
- While JT may have been a top 5 hitter from June it remains…
- Big Advantage – Padres
Shortstop
- Trea Turner – .298/.343/.466/.809
- Ha-Seong Kim – .251/.325/.383/.708
- Big Advantage – Dodgers
Left Field
- Trayce Thompson – .256/.353/.507/.860
- Jurickson Profar – .243/.331/.391/.722
- It looks lop-sided, but somehow Jurickson Profar finds a way to be a difference maker. With Joey Gallo or CT3 instead of Thompson, it would be advantage Padres. But if Thompson, I think it is…
- Small Advantage – Dodgers
Center Field
- Cody Bellinger – .210/.265/.389/.654 – Gold Glove Winner
- Trent Grisham – .184/.284/.341/.625 – Gold Glove Winner
- MLB analysis used Grisham’s wild card to give the advantage to San Diego. Based on the entire season’s work, and what Belli produced the last 7 and 15 games…
- Small Advantage – Dodgers
Right Field
- Mookie Betts – .269/.340/.533/.873 – 5 X Gold Glove Winner
- Juan Soto – .242/.401/.452/.853
- Two of the very best players in MLB. Soto is a good OBP player because of his plate discipline and walks. Mookie has better bat to ball skills, more power, more productive run producer, and is a superior defender. Soto walks more, but Mookie is more of a difference maker in most every other metric.
- Advantage – Dodgers
DH
- Max Muncy – .196/.329/.384/.713
- Wil Myers – .261/.315/.398/.713
- Since Max was able to successfully alter his hitting approach, he has been a different hitter. For September Max hit .259/.376/.506/.882.
- Advantage – Dodgers
Pitching
- Overall
- LAD – ERA 2.80 (#1 MLB), WHIP 1.05 (#1 MLB)
- SD – ERA 3.81 (#11 MLB), WHIP 1.20 (#9 MLB)
- Starter
- LAD – ERA 2.75 (#1 MLB), WHIP 1.04 (#1 MLB)
- SD – ERA 3.80 (#13 MLB), WHIP 1.19 (#9 MLB)
- Reliever
- LAD – ERA 2.87 (#2 MLB), WHIP 1.05 (#1 MLB)
- SD – ERA 3.83 (#14 MLB), WHIP 1.21 (#8 MLB)
- San Diego’s pitching is good, but not as good as the Dodgers.
- Advantage – Dodgers
How anyone can say the LAD pitching is inferior to San Diego’s is incredulous, and yet I continue to read Dodgers fans comments about San Die
ego’s pitching superiority. San Diego may get hot for the series, but they are clearly not a superior unit.
Braves over Philadelphia
Houston over Seattle
Cleveland over NYY (I do like Cleveland’s pitching)
and
Dodgers in 4
As most of you know, my site has been having issues of late. I have been told that while it is a nuisance, it is a result of the site growing too large for the server space that it is housed on. In other words, I am being told that the traffic on my site has outgrown the original specs for the site.
But I have also been advised by friends and colleagues that I need to ask about the type of traffic. It could be that Mark sent over all the spoofers and phishers that were shutting down his site a while back. Just kidding Mark. I have to have some levity with this problem. I am trying to get answers to the numbers and server space I have to make an enlightened decision. If that is over some of your heads, think how I feel. It is over mine and I have to pay for it.
I am trying to determine my options without breaking the bank. I also have friends and colleagues looking into what additional options I may have in the long-term.
So please be patient with me. I am trying to resolve the problems so that the site can continue without the problems I am currently encountering. In the interim, I am trying to keep it together with bubble gum and toothpicks. When it is finally resolved, we can all get back together and sing Kumbaya together. Those that have read a recent LADT article penned by Mark will understand that.
In the meantime, it should be good to go today for comments.
I think we can all deal with the growing pains. Appreciate this site and your efforts to keep it going.
You’ll figure it out. This site is as good as any I’ve visited, better than most. Your audience is going to grow.
Dodgers favored -222, 7 runs O/U. I’ll take the Dodgers and the over – 5-3.
Great site Jeff. I read it every day. Thanks for all your efforts.
With your astute commentary Jeff, and the wisdom that the rest of us add on a regular basis, it’s no wonder that your site is being overrun with readers.
So far, it’s been a bad day for Aces. First Fried, then Verlander. Cole had better watch out.
We don’t have to worry about Julio because no one outside of L.A. considers him an ace.
I’m a bit surprised to see Vargas on the roster instead of Alberto, but I’ll bow to the wisdom of the front office. I guess they thought Miggy’s bat was more important than Hanser’s defense.
Also, surprised to see May included for this series. Somehow I expected they would wait until the NLCS. Again, AF and gang know better than I do.
Bullpen seems strong, assuming they’re all healthy. Although Ferguson hasn’t been great for the past few weeks, I’m still surprised he wasn’t included if healthy. Based on his comments about being forced to the IL earlier this season, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him traded this winter. I think that relationship may be broken.
NLDS MVP – Trayce Thompson
On the LAD roster. I guess that the LAD brass were happy with what they saw from Treinen and May over the weekend. AF has already said he is not concerned that Treinen cannot pitch in back to back games. That mean that Treinen can only pitch Game 1, 3, and 5 if they can want to get three innings out of him.
I am not sure what the plan is for May. I thought they would keep May back in Arizona to keep him stretching out. I cannot see him as a one inning guy, and I am not sure he will be physically able to pitch multiple innings in multiple games in a 5-game series. If he finds his command, he could be a game difference maker.
I do like the bullpen. A good mix of RHP and LHP with different pitch strengths and arm angles.
RHP – Yency Almonte
RHP – Brusdar Graterol
RHP – Tommy Kahnle
RHP – Chris Martin
RHP – Dustin May
RHP – Evan Phillips
RHP – Blake Treinen
LHP – Andrew Heaney
LHP – Alex Vesia
The one head scratcher for me is Miguel Vargas over Hanser Alberto. I may have been in the minority on this one, but I am not sure that Vargas’s positive contribution can make up for the loss of Alberto in the dugout. Better hitter? Sure. But a better hitter off the bench? Hanser has done that all season and much of his career. Miguel has been a regular wherever he has been. Hanser keeps the players loose. Vargas does not have that cache.