Today by 1:00PM (PST), the Dodgers will learn if Tyler Anderson has accepted the LAD QO.
Today, no later than 3:00, the 40 man rosters need to be submitted. Right now, the Dodgers have 33 on the 40 man. Clayton Kershaw has supposedly agreed to a one year deal, and he will need a spot on the roster. I do not understand the delay in announcing the deal.
If Tyler Anderson accepts the QO, then he will need to be added. With Kershaw and TA, the 40 man goes to 35. I do not expect the Trevor Bauer arbitration to be resolved by the 40 man roster set deadline. As of right now, he is not on the 40 man. He is suspended, and will remain so until the arbitration panel makes their ruling known.
So I am assuming that Tyler Anderson will accept the QO and Kershaw will get a 40 man spot. That will bring the total to 35. I am also assuming that there will not be any additions to the 40 man via trade or FA signing before the submittal.
Here is my projection for the 5 remaining spots on the 40 man. The first four are pretty much consensus choices:
- Diego Cartaya – C – Age today – 21.2
- Michael Busch – 2B/LF – Age today – 25.0
- Andy Pages – OF – Age today – 21.9 – Big AFL Season
- José Ramos – OF – Age today – 21.9 – Big AFL Season
https://www.mlb.com/news/andy-pages-jose-ramos-continue-to-shine-and-grow-in-afl
My final prediction is RHP, Carlos Duran, over OF Jonny DeLuca. I do not see the Dodgers protecting 3 OF. I like DeLuca, but I think there is more of a risk that Duran would be drafted more than DeLuca. I also think age is an issue.
- Carlos Duran – RHP – Age today – 21.3
Players who are more likely to be possibly drafted. Players listed by age:
- Jonny DeLuca – OF – Age today – 24.3
- Ryan Ward – OF – Age today – 24.7
- Hunter Feduccia – C – Age today – 25.4
- Drew Avans – OF – Age today – 26.4
- Ryan Noda – 1B – Age today – 26.6
Each of the five above will be protected on the AAA roster, but will remain eligible for the MLB portion of the Rule 5 draft.
I think Hunter Feduccia is an outside candidate to be protected. Hunter is one of the very best fastball hitters in MiLB. Per Prospects Live:
“There is nobody in the entirety of professional baseball who saw as many fastballs, and matched Feduccia in both contact rate and wOBAcon. He also showed no cracks based on location, speed, or movement.”
He also plays a position that is devoid of much quality at the highest levels. My thinking here is that perhaps the Dodgers can protect Hunter, and can then include Feduccia in a trade package to a team than needs catching. He could be a good backup catcher and could conceivably get starts against a good fastball pitcher.
While Carlos Duran is still considered a SP, he is still a 2-pitch pitcher. He has a plus fastball and a double plus slider. But that is it. His 3rd pitch is a well below average changeup. If not protected, he is a huge possibility to land and stick as a back end reliever. While the Dodgers are not apt to push their prospects, most other teams have no qualms. Atlanta just produced a 21 year old ROY (CF Michael Harris II), and a 23 year old #2 ROY (RHSP Spencer Strider). I do not think they would be opposed to reach for a 21 year old with a 60 fastball and a 70 slider for a high leverage late inning reliever. He is a clear cut potential to be a MLB closer. That is why I would want to protect him. I believe he will be drafted and stick at the MLB level.
I cannot see Ryan Noda being protected, but IMO he is an excellent candidate to be drafted. He could be a good LH bat coming off the bench and a spot starter at 1B. He can also play some corner OF. It would be hard to ignore a AAA player batting .259/.395/.474/.869. He had 25 HRs and 90 RBIs. He may not be a GG 1B, but he is a solid defensive 1B. He made 5 errors in 802 chances (891.1 innings). Could he become another Christian Walker, who was a poor defensive 1B when he first replaced Paul Goldschmidt, as a 28 year old? He is now a slugging GG 1B.
Jonny DeLuca had a fantastic season, but he got injured in early August and was out for the season after August 6. For the season, DeLuca batted:
- AA – .298/.359/.606/.965 – 104 AB – 7 HR
- A+ – .245/.343/.516/.859 – 277 AB – 18 HR
- Overall – .260/.347/.541/.888 – 381 AB – 25 HR – 73 K, 45 BB – 17% K rate
Did he have a good enough season to get drafted and remain on a MLB roster?
I do not believe there is much risk in Drew Avans or Ryan Ward being drafted in the MLB phase. But they would be picked up in the MiLB phase if not protected at AAA, which I suspect they will be.
The Rule 5 draft will be held on the final day of the 2022 Winter Meetings, Wednesday December 7.
What say you on those I have tabbed for protection? Anyone else see any sleepers to be protected?
I’m going to re-post a link to a rundown on pitchers with excellent breaking balls which I posted to your last article (apparently just before you posted this one) and which included a fair amount of info on Duran. Based on what you have said, Jeff, and what this article contains, I would be surprised not to see Duran added to the 40-man.
https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/11/13/really-good-minor-league-breaking-balls
You say you don’t expect any additions before the deadline, but there could be subtractions via trade or dfa. Bickford and Bruihl strike me as two who may be on the bubble. And, of course, if they have decided not to tender Bellinger a contract, they might as well do that today in order to protect an extra player.
It’s going to be a very busy day in Rosterland.
Martín Pérez became the first of an expected three players to accept the QO. It is widely expected that both Joc and Tyler Anderson will accept as well.
While Matt Carpenter was with St. Louis, he had his three worst years offensively while Jeff Albert was the Cardinals hitting coach. Carpenter signed with Texas after 2021 as a FA. He was released by Texas on May 19, and signed with NYY on May 26. He then proceeded to have a phenomenal rest of the 2022 season: .305/.412/.727/1.138, 15 HRs in 154 PA. He has always been a Max Muncy type with a good eye. He walked 12.3%, and cut his strikeout rate to 22.7%
The three years with Jeff Albert as hitting coach, were horrible. In 6 of the previous 7 seasons, Carpenter had an OPS > .800. For the three years with Jeff Albert as the hitting coach, his OPS was .726, .640, .581.
However, Carpenter did not blame Albert for his struggles in his latter years with the Cardinals, but said, “I just never bought into (analytics) like I should have.”
Might this be a similar situation for Belli? RVS came to LAD for his 2019 season, but maybe it was Turner Ward’s influence that Belli latched on to for the first part of his MVP season. Belli started to slip the second half of 2019 after RVS arrived. His next three years have been disastrous. Maybe RVS has not been a positive influence on Belli, and a change could work for him on another team.
Sometimes it is not the player, but the coach not being able to communicate with the player. We know that RVS loves to increase pitch count, and Belli would often find himself in strike one and strike two counts. We know that Mookie was also working the count when Freddie and Trea told Mookie to become more aggressive. Can you imagine if Rickey Henderson was told he needed to take a strike?
Sometimes a change is needed.
Anderson signs a multiyear deal with the Angels per Jeff Passan.
Per Rosenthal: Dodgers consider themselves deep in major league talent. May only pursue high-end short term deals.
And I quote, apologies if already quoted:
If you’re the Dodgers…why would you carry $280mm payroll when you can reach the postseason at a lower amount and stand perhaps the same chance of winning the WS if the team gets hot at the right time?
He did NOT say crapshoot anywhere in the article.
He also mentions that Verlander may see the Dodgers as an option and that Adames is unlikely to move.
List is out, just four players protected:
Cartaya
Busch
Pages
DeLuca
No Ramos, no Duran.
Maybe AF feels nobody would roster Ramos for a full year so he wouldn’t be taken in the draft.
I think someone would take a chance on Duran, so maybe he’s part of a trade we haven’t heard about yet.
Unofficially, Diego Cartaya, Michael Busch, Andy Pages, and Jonny DeLuca have been added to the 40 man. I do not know if that is all right now. Neither Jose Ramos nor Carlos Duran were mentioned in the report I saw. I will continue to peruse the feeds.