Let’s be honest. The Dodgers are not going to win the WS unless:
- Kershaw makes it all the way back, and stays healthy through October
- Urías figures out what is wrong, and corrects it before October
- Gonsolin can find a way to get back to his 2022 self, or at least get to 7 innings once in a while (not likely)
- LAD finds other starters to slow the innings pitched by the rookies (I believe that is the reason for Lance Lynn). Lynn still falls in the LAD needs to score 8 to win category.
Getting Nolan Arenado was not going to change that dynamic. The LAD offense is good enough to win games (Saturday and Sunday not withstanding). Pitching, defense, and base running, not so much.
Urías and Doc have both said that the upcoming FA is not an issue, and is not the problem for Julio’s poor performance thus far. Okay. Is it physical? Urías has always been pudgy, so I am not blaming his weight. It may become a long term concern, and may become a health concern, but not a pitching concern at 26. Is there something to his velo drop?
Is it mechanical? If so, why can’t the Dodger pitching gurus figure it out? It has to be psychological, physical, or mechanical, right? Right now, the Dodgers are putting all their eggs in the mechanical basket. Julio has a month to get it figured out before getting ready for the stretch run.
Tony Gonsolin has never been consistently able to pitch late into games. In 2022, in his 24 GS, he did get through 6.0 innings half the time, and 7.0+ innings three times. But he was not able to do that consistently before 2022 or since his injury. In 2023, 4 out of 16 starts, Gonsolin has pitched 6.0 innings. We have already heard he needs more rest because he does not recover well. On June 13, Tony’s ERA was at 1.93. His ERA jumped a run in his next start to 2.92.
In his seven starts since June 13, his ERA is 7.25. His FIP is 5.53. His OPS against is .827. I do not think anyone would consider that good. I am not convinced that Gonsolin’s poor performance is not health related.
Tony Gonsolin’s Pitching Percentile Rankings per Statcast:
Not much red at all. This is not the Percentile Rankings of a WS Championship caliber starting pitcher.
His 4-seamer velo has dropped from 95.1 to 93.8 to 93.1 to 92.5. He is 29. Should his velo be dropping like that? I am genuinely asking, not judging.
His 4-seamer has never been the swing and miss pitch for him, and his offspeed pitches are catching way too much of the plate this year.
Something sure has changed. Gonsolin is not the same pitcher he was in 2022. Why?
For comparison, let’s look at Bobby Millers Statcast Percentile Rankings:
A lot more red for Miller. He does show some negative tendency for hard hit, exit velo, and whiff %. But all three are well within the average rankings.
Neither Gonsolin nor Urías have ever consistently been able to pitch deep into games.
The above table indicates that Gonsolin’s effectiveness starts to go south in inning 4. It also indicates that he rarely pitches into the 6th inning. He has been a reliever almost exclusively for the 7th – 9th innings.
Urías has historically had a bad 1st inning. Why? Can’t a pregame approach be adjusted to more replicate what he used to do when he came into relief? His 1st innings pitched in relief were much better. But the table also shows that Julio has trouble pitching past 5 innings. Again, we have to consider that most of his innings pitched past the 6th were done in relief.
So that is two starting pitchers who have no history at all for pitching late into a game, and three rookies. Thus the need for an innings eater, even one that is not pitching effectively in 2023, Lance Lynn.
So while everyone (including LAD management) says that the team needs starting pitching, getting the likes of Jordan Montgomery or Jack Flaherty or Eduardo Rodriguez, Michael Lorenzen or James Paxton is not going to solve the LAD pitching problem unless we go back to the beginning:
- Kershaw makes it all the way back, and stays healthy through October
- Urías figures out what is wrong and corrects it before October
- Gonsolin can find a way to get back to his 2022 self, or at least get to 7 innings once in a while (not likely)
- LAD finds other starters to slow the innings pitched by the rookies (I believe that is the reason for Lance Lynn)
That being said, AF/BG have to believe they can and will get it resolved, then go out and find the missing components to make LAD a WS Champion. No that is not Tommy Pham or Mark Canha.
As I am writing this, there are 1.5 days before the August 1, 3:00PM (PST) trade deadline concludes. Is there another SP in their 2023 future?
07-30-2023 – MiLB Game Summary Report
OKC Dodgers 16 – Reno Aces (Arizona) 15
Landon Knack was not dominant, but he was effective. He went the first 4.0 IP. He did allow 1 unearned run, on 4 hits and 4 walks to go with his 5 Ks. He threw 79 pitches (45 strikes), and faced 20 batters. His relievers? Not so good. No earned runs in 4.0 IP IN RENO? That’s pretty darn good.
- Jimmy Nelson – 2-run HR in his 1.0 IP
- Ryan Sherriff – 0.2 IP, 5 runs (all earned), 3 hits, 2 walks, and 2 Ks
- Victor González – 1.0 IP, 2 runs (all earned), 3 hits, 1BB
- Wander Suero – Gave up game tying HR in the bottom of the 9th
- Ken Giles – Gave up a game tying 3-run HR in the 10th
OKC ran out of relievers. Yonny Hernández came out to pitch in the bottom of the 11th with the inherited runner on 2nd. Lo and behold Hernández got the save with only 1 unearned run against. Once again Michael Busch and Miguel Vargas led the attack, but this time had help.
Yonny Hernández 77 mph fastball + 45 mph ephus repertoire
(CC: @PitchingNinja) pic.twitter.com/m4YrREcmdJ
— Bruce Kuntz (@Bnicklaus7) July 30, 2023
Key Performers:
- Michael Busch – 3-6, 2 runs, 3 RBI, 2 HR (18)
- Miguel Vargas – 3-6, 2 runs, 3 RBI, HR (4)
- Ryan Ward – 4-6, 3 runs, 3 RBI, HR (13)
- David Dahl – 3-5, 2 runs, 5 RBI, 2 HR (4)
Springfield Cardinals 8 – Tulsa Drillers 7
Kyle Hurt and especially Antonio Knowles had rough outings. Hurt started and went 3.2 innings. 3 runs (all earned). On just 1 hit, but 7 BB and 5 K. Knowles never recorded an out. He gave up a single and 4 walks and left leaving the bases full. Trevor Bettencourt gave up a bases clearing double. Bettencourt gave up a run on his own that proved to be the game winner.
Key Performers:
- José Ramos – 2-2, HBP, 1 RBI, HR (18)
- Yusniel Díaz – 2-4, 1 run, 2 RBI, double (12), HR (6)
- Doubles- Imanol Vargas (19), Josh Stowers (5)
- HR – Hamlet Marte (1), Austin Gauthier (6)
#Dodgers outfield prospect Jose Ramos was pulled from Double-A Tulsa’s game after going 2-2 with a homer
— Bruce Kuntz (@Bnicklaus7) July 30, 2023
He was pulled in the 8th inning. It was not due to injury. ???????
Dayton Dragons (Reds) 4 – Great Lakes Loons 2
Kendall Williams seems to be one of the few LAD MiLB pitchers allowed to pitch 5.0 innings. Williams also did not dominate but was effective for his 5.0 innings. He gave up 2 runs, 4 hits (including HR), 2 BB, 3 K. He came out behind 2-0. Dayton scored a third run off Lucas Wepf before GL scored 2 runs in the 6th. Franklin De La Paz allowed a HR in the 8th to end the scoring.
Key Performers:
- Damon Keith – 2-5, 1 run, 1 RBI, double (19)
- Doubles – Alex Freeland (11), Jake Vogel (15)
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 5 – San Jose Giants 4
RC defeated the Giants 4 games to 2 in the 6 game series. RC scored 5 runs on 5 singles and 7 walks. San Jose scored 4 runs on 12 hits. RC pitchers also struck out 14 batters, including Madison Jeffrey striking out the final batter on three pitches for the save.
Three 2023 draft picks collected all 5 of the hits.
Key Performers:
- 21 year old 1B Joe Vetrano, Boston College, 5th round – 2-3, 1 BB, 2 RBI
- 22 year old SS Sam Mongelli, Sacred Heart, 10th round – 2-3, 1 run
- 21 year old SS/3B Jordan Thompson, LSU, 15th round – 1-3, 1 run
Looks to me like we are tanking for decent Draft Picks….finally
Unless they finished in last place, they really would not get a high draft pick.
Based on his name, i think it was a joke
Maybe, I think he was serious
Do they mean tenth straight loss on a Sunday?
Yes
Now that’s depth. Are they done?
Ramos getting pulled seems significant. Nastrini 2.0?
Probably for Pham or Canha or someone less than stellar.
Dodgers do not need Pham or Canha, a player I cannot see the fascination with. He is nowhere near the player he was 4 years ago. He has six homers, so he is not a huge power threat. Pham has worn out his welcome everywhere he has played. He has hit well, but he is no defensive whiz in the outfield. Would much rather have Thomas from DC than either of those clowns.
I’ve been a broken record for a few months.
Pitching.
Something will get done. In the meantime? 4-6. Only Colorado is out of it in the West. We need to go 6-4 the rest of the way.
Seems to me that the Dodgers have no clue about their pitching staff and it starts on the farm. We’ve talked about the babying of starters, and their curtailment of pitching longer in games. Speaking of Gonsolin, I thought last year had to be a fluke. He never exhibited the kind of staying power and luck in staying in games and getting the win. This was helped tremendously by our offense who were simply outscoring and out powering everyone. Plus, Gonsolin doesn’t have 20 game winner stuff! Urias has that potential but crashes with his giving up way too many HRs. I also think that Doc is a horrible manager of pitchers, either pulling them too early or too late. His choices of using relievers like Bickford and Vesia in tight games defy logic. He wants innings eaters. This in itself is a poor strategy. Change needs to come but the Dodgers are so corporate that change is threatening to the hierarchy. Mistakes are not acknowledged on this team.
I understand you do not like Roberts. But just who is he supposed to pitch? None of his starters can go longer than 5. Should he run Evan Phillips out there everyday? Do you really think Joe Kelly is going to turn into Josh Hader. The Dodgers only have 7 relievers on the roster right now. He can only pitch who is on the 26 man. It is only going to get worse. The bullpen arms are already reaching their career high IP.
Yency Almonte – 45 games – 43.0 IP; 2022-35.1 IP; 2021 – 47.2 IP
Brusdar Graterol – 45 games – 43.0 IP; 2022 – 49.2 IP; 2021 – 33.1 IP
Evan Phillips – 42 games – 40.2 IP; 2022 – 63.0 IP; 2021 – 13.1 IP
Caleb Ferguson – 44 games – 39.1 IP; 2022 – 34.2 IP; 2021 – 0 IP; 2020 – 18.2 IP
How many more innings do these relievers have in them for 2023? Or are they going to fold like they did in the 2022 NLDS?
Two ineffective starters and 3 rookie starters. Just who is Roberts supposed to pitch?
“Mistakes are not acknowledged on this team.”…..
BINGO!!!
The other Jeff called it. Not acknowledging mistakes or results is a huge problem for management as they believe everything will work out all the time, and never plan for the unexpected.
The problem starts and ends as it usually does in the winter shopping season, which is where Friedman usually falls flat.
“How many more innings do these relievers have in them for 2023? Or are they going to fold like they did in the 2022 NLDS?”
BINGO!!!…again
that’s probably what will happen. it happened last year and we were forced to watch guys like Tommy Khanle and Almonte pitching in an elimination game.
Is it possible to expect that the most powerful and richest team in the sport can use their vast resources to find reliable starting pitchers who can stay healthy and pitch deep into games? Why is this not doable for them?
Look, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin are good pitchers, but they’re more fragile than an ice sheet. May has never pitched more than 60 innings in his career and I have doubts about his MLB career continuing. Gonsolin has had one year in which he tossed over 100 innings I think. Kershaw has about 10K innings on his back. It doesn’t take an advanced algorithm, to figure out that these guys are not going to provide them with the valuable innings they need to compete.
The rest of the guys are unproven rookies who they absolutely refuse to let pitch more than 80 pitches, or 4-5 innings per start. Do you think this is a good strategy, or organizational philosophy?
BTW Thanks for letting me vent over here Jeff, after today’s forfiet I needed it. lol
You are welcome any time with rants.
He is supposed to let the starters go deeper thus needing the bullpen for less innings. The Sheehan game is a good example. He was cruising, pitching a shutout and he gets pulled after 5. His pitch count wasn’t too high. This isn’t becsuse he can’t get past the 5th, it is because Roberts wouldn’t let him pitch past the 5th. Then Ferguson comes in and gives up the lead!
Expecting the bullpen to pick up 4 innings every game is risky!
The same damned pitchers he has but not micro managing them like a newborn baby. How many starters has he pulled pre-maturely? How many relievers has he left in too long? These are the moments that count in managing athletes. He is not responsible for either the conditioning or the stuff that the pitchers are throwing. You’ve got a starter that gives up 3 runs in the first few innings, you get him out of there. If you don’t have a healthy enough staff, you’ve got real problems. The Dodgers have real problems which are not addressed at all as far as I can see as they are ongoing from year to year. Conditioning, diet, and trainers who are up to the latest physio approaches to unlocking tight shoulders, hips, and hammies. Overweight players should be fined and docked. Hell, these players are. making millions. Let them earn it. Relievers need to learn to play back to back games. Even Jansen could do it. and he was way overweight. Imagine if he lost 30lbs and kept his conditioning and diet disciplined. Discipline is the way of the elite athletes.
Is “Jeff” trying a professional sports team with a group of people dedicated to optimizing performance about the “way of elite athletes?”
How is Michael Busch still in AAA? If he gets traded, it better be for Shane McClanahan straight up.
Also check this from Juan Toribio:
By the deadline, Busch and Vargas should be back on the team.
No room unless they unload a couple of the middle infielders they have. Rosario will not be traded, they got him for his bat against lefties. Rojas is their best fielder in the infield next to Freddie. Only trade chip left is Taylor and his contract makes that highly improbable. Muncy would only be dealt if the comeback is Arenado. Less chance of that happening by the hour.
Anyone expecting Clayton Kershaw sooner than later:
I’m sure the West contenders are looking at the Dodgers and thinking they are vulnerable. Every team but Colorado is still in it so I expect all of them to be buyers.
I don’t understand the comments about “mistakes”. The team has lost 3 starters and the replacements haven’t proven they are ready. I don’t view this as mistakes, I see it as unfortunate. Even if they don’t get a proven starter, which would at this point likely be an overpay, I look at it as a choice, not a mistake. For all I know they might ride this team as is to finish line. Current World Series odds have us just behind Atlanta.
That said, I see a big splash coming today.
Damn, Mr. Grove got his ass handed to him yesterday. A somewhat positive was he pitched six innings to help limit the BP use. So, I guess in order to pitch deeper into games a pitcher has to give up a large number of runs early in the game. I still think Michael Grove has a future as a starter or at the very least a BP piece. Being 26, Grove is going to have some urgency with his location and pitch selection development . If he can’t show improvement and have a defined role next season he may be passed by younger prospects.
Injuries to three position players is a bit concerning. Hoping the day off will help.
Waiting anxiously for the Verlander situation to play out. Even at his age he would add some stability and depth to a seriously deteriorating starting staff. Another starter has to be traded for by AF. Look at the depth that Texas has put together.
Roberts’ remarks on Kershaw have me thinking that his return is going to be delayed. Again.
Carry on.
Honesty? Something rarely seen in fans or baseball teams. Actually, in all sports. Falsehoods about injuries until they are season ending. The 15-day IL itself is a testament to the league allowing players to get in season rest. When it was a 10-day IL, the Dodgers used it better than anyone else for tired arm syndrome and other phantom injuries. The truth is I had reservations about the pitching staff all winter. Especially when the only class A arm they brought in was Kershaw. Syndergaard was a project. The placed all their trust in Urias being Urias, Gonsolin repeating his success of 22. May being healthy. Kersh being Kersh. The depth was not veterans with a track record like 22. It was the kids, Grove, Miller. The team leader in stolen bases is their first baseman. No speed demon he, but a very smart player. Mookie’s stolen bases have declined significantly from his Boston days. Losing Lux put them in a bad spot. Despite all that has happened, on August 1st, they will still be in first place as games begin. They have one day left to fill holes and improve the team. Anyone here seriously believe that trading for Pham or Canha does that? Flaherty? He is 7-6 with a 4.43 ERA, and his WHIP is 1.550. He might benefit from a change of scenery, but he doesn’t look like a lifesaver to me. Some have mentioned Singer from KC, ERA over 5. Blackburn from Oakland, ERA over 4. 1.574 WHIP. Eduardo Rodriguez, yes, him I would like to see. ERA under 3 6-5 record for a really bad team. WHIP is 1.030. Strikeout per inning guy. Mitch Keller, Pirates. Yes. If they could get Bednar too, that would be nice. Keller is a high K low walk pitcher. He allows a few too many homers, but otherwise he is solid. And he would benefit from pitching in Dodger Stadium. He would probably cost the most in prospect capital. Verlander. No thanks. A true ace and a difference maker, but his age makes me nervous.
Well said Bear.
With the offense as good as it has been, they may just go for a reliable innings eater or two and ride the handful of others the rest of the way. Gonsolin and Urias might just need 15 days. Kershaw might be fine after a month off. Buehler is due back and might be able to start a few, giving others a day off. He and Grove in the bullpen could help too.
I’m still hoping for Verlander, but I won’t be surprised if it’s another Lynn.
What would be the issue with getting Verlander for just this season if the price in prospects and cash is low?
Scott, according to all of the posts and stories I have seen and read, especially the one on MLBTR, the Mets want a bigger package for Verlander and are unwilling to pay down his contract. The biggest issue? The vesting option for 25. The option is, if he pitches 140 innings next year, he has the option to activate the 35-million-dollar salary. The Astro’s have balked at that. It seems to be the biggest hang up for a trade. 35 mil for a 42-year-old pitcher is highly risky.
If that’s the terms and return the Mets want for Verlander then he will not be traded. We’re talking about a possible $90M+ obligation for the rest of this year and 2024-25. And, top prospects? Who would do that deal?
No one. Cohen has already exposed his hand that he is willing to add $30M+ to make a trade. His way of thinking with the Scherzer trade was that he would add money in order to get (buy) a top prospect. Why wouldn’t he do that with the Dodgers?
Anyway, that’s why the site is called “Trade Rumors”.
Bear, I do like other options like Rodriguez and Keller. I think Rodriguez has an opt out and the end of this year (if I’m not mistaken) which makes most deals risky. And, Keller may cost too much prospect wise. We’ll find out shortly how AF navigates his options.
E-Rod does have an opt out so he does need to be considered a rental by a buying teams. Detroit of course can disagree (and probably does). But I think in most cases, teams are not shying away from the potential opt out, but are more concerned that his injury might be worse than is being reported and that he will not opt out, and the buying team will be on the hook for $49MM for an injured player.
There is no issue with Verlander if the prospect capital and cash are low. Scott, define low, BEFORE a trade is made. What do you consider a fair trade for Verlander? Knowing NYM is not going to pay the remainder of this year and half of next year, and accept Rayne Doncon and Peter Heubeck in a trade. Even if they throw in Phil Bickford and Eddys Leonard. And knowing that AF/BG are not going to accept the full contract and trade Bobby Miller, Diego Cartaya, and Michael Busch. Somewhere in between will be a fair deal for AF/BG, but NYM may not agree and vice versa. But what would you recommend.
I know Bums gets criticized for some of his trade ideas, but at least he comes up with them and shares them, even if they seem outlandish to others. Others, when asked to suggest trades, say they do not know enough about valuing prospects and or veterans to make suggestions. Fair enough. But many have no problem whatsoever of complaining AFTER the trade was made.
Well for Verlander, considering his age and the money, and what Bear was saying about this vesting option, perhaps one good top ten prospect, and another lower level type propsect would be fair for both clubs.
I would’t deal Knack. Nor would I include Busch, or Vargas or any of the upper tier position players. Perhaps someone like Frasso and Michael Grove would work for the Mets?
Keep in mind I am just spitballing here.
At least you are spitballing. I do not think Frasso and Grove get it done. But I have been wrong too many times to think I know more than I do, which is not much. Verlander’s option vests if he pitches 140 innings in 2024. How many LAD pitchers pitch 140 innings in a year? But thank you for at least making a trade suggestion. BTW, if Frasso and Grove can get it done, I would be behind that deal all day long.
Who else is interested?
Houston, and they and the Mets are still in discussions.
Again, thank you for writing what I was composing. So many here criticized AF/BG for not re-signing Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney. I think that proved to be a good decision.
The pitching gurus thought that they could “fix” Syndergaard. Syndergaard did not want to be fixed, even though he signed with LAD just for that purpose. Syndergaard convinced AF/BG that he was comfortable with making the adjustments. He did not want to make the adjustments. He has said as much lately. He said he had a good conversation with Tito Francona and he is going to let Syndergaard pitch the way he wants to.
What was the mantra in the beginning of the season?” Bring on the kids!! The Dodgers have the best farm system, so let them play. They did, and now the complaints because they were not ready.
Doc cannot win in this one. Some write that he pulls the pitchers too early. Then there are others that write that as soon as 3 runs are scored, Roberts has to pull him. I guess Julio Urías should never pitch since he quite often cannot get out of the 1st inning.
Doc did not have a bulk inning reliever to bring in the 6th. Why? Because they were already in the rotation. They tried Andre Jackson, and that did not work. They tried Phil Bickford. That did not work out. It got to the point that the Dodgers did not have anyone left on the 40 man to bring up. Those that might have been available, just got sent down and not available until an injury, and the rest were already on the 60 day.
Even now the only pitchers available to be brought up are: Victor González, Bryan Hudson, and Gavin Stone. Tyson Miller can only be brought up if there is an injury for another week+.
For those that truly believe they know which relievers to bring in and in what inning or situation, there are 30 teams that can use your wisdom. Then again, none of us have any idea what pitchers are available on any given day. None of us know how that pitcher is feeling at the time. He has 7 relievers on the roster right now: Phillips, Ferguson, Graterol, Kelly, Vesia, Brasier, Almonte. Which one of those are lock down closers like Cano and Bautista in Baltimore, or Diaz in Cincinnati, or Duran in Minnesota, or Hader in SD, or Dotel in SF, or Chapman in Texas? How many here would have been screaming for paying the price for David Robertson or Jordan Hicks?
I know those of you who do not like Roberts and/or AF are not going to change your mind. Obviously not every pitching decision works out. But more than most do. For those that are critical. Come on at the time of the decision and tell us what you would do BEFORE the pitch is thrown. Who here (besides Scott who thinks Almonte is a MiLB pitcher) knew that Almonte was going to implode. He had not given up an earned run since June 14, and only 3 in June and July until Friday night.
You can complain about Roberts all you want, but that is not going to change the roster from which he has to pull from. Complain about AF/BG. But nobody here knows what the other teams are asking for in trades. The Dodgers have invested a lot this year with the kids. They are not going to give them away for a Jack Flaherty or Michael Lorenzen.
With all of the problems this year, the Dodgers are still in 1st place in a very competitive NL West. They need pitching and more pitching and more pitching still. But who is available. Even Doc recognizes this about the rotation concerns:
I will add what was not said but should be understood…a reasonable deal.
I have gone on too much and am starting to ramble.
I believe that teams ask for more in a trade with the Dodgers than they ask/expect from other teams.
Just asking and not critiquing, but why do you believe that? CWS asked for and got LAA’s #2 (and Top 100) and #3 for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López. There are a lot of baseball people who think that Edgar Quero is a better catcher prospect than Cartaya. Others disagree. Ky Bush is a LHSP, a commodity much in demand. CWS got both Quero and Bush. Do you think that Diego Cartaya and Maddux Bruns are comparable? I would not make that deal, and I like Giolito. NYM got Luisangel Acuña and cash for Max Scherzer. What Dodger prospect has more ceiling than Acuña? NYM does not need catching at all so Cartaya or Rushing would not move the needle for them. Would you trade Bobby Miller, Michael Busch, or Miguel Vargas for the 2023 Max Scherzer? Then again, NYM may not value the Dodgers prospects as much as LAD fans do (or AF/BG).
I do not think that teams ask more from LAD. I think it is other teams are willing to pay more than the Dodgers. I cannot say for certain, but I doubt that AF would have traded Edgar Quero and Ky Bush for Giolito and López. Neither are game changers like 2021 Max Scherzer and Trea Turner.
Here’s the problem I have with their situation. The people claiming that there is nobody available and nothing the Dodgers can do to find and acquire reliable pitchers. I find this incredulous.
There are many ways the Dodgers can find good pitchers. I’ll name some.
Free Agency
Domestic Free Agency
International Free Agency
Trades
The Amateur draft
Undrafted and unsigned College players
The Dodgers Farm System (this option is the easiest one and one the club has clearly already tapped into.
I just named, what 6 ,7 different ways to acquire pitching. I understand this late in the season, options are limited. That’s why it’s important to stockpile arms during the winter season. I understand the Dodgers thought that their prospects would provide them depth this season, but too only sign Syndergaard this winter? Yuck.
But can we admit that the Dodgers should be able to use their vast array of Money, resources and influence to easily acquire good pitching from year to year?
For some people (not saying anyone over here) to assume that the Dodgers are tapped out of options or resources, I just don’t agree with. This is the Dodgers, the most powerful, richest and influential organization in baseball. If they want a player, they normally can make it happen, within reasonable exceptions. The Dodgers need pitching. FIND IT. (I’m taking now to the Dodgers, points finger like Tommy at the Dodgers). You’re the Dodgers. Go out and get some pitching.
Maybe it’s time to start looking at the international market more?
Cease’ name still being out there is curious. The fact that he’s a controlled asset is appealing.
I can’t see Verlander, but that’s mainly because I’m not sure how the salary counts if the Mets agree to pay it. I had a friend agree to cover legal costs for me once. I had to pay the lawyer and my friend paid me back.
Story this morning on MLBTR states the Guardians might be interested or moved to trade Civale.
Civale is a favorite of mine! Music to my ears.
But there are underlying metrics (FB veto and FIP) which are very daunting last time I checked (couple weeks ago.)
Cease and Civale are names that were considered untradable until now. Why the change? Take a look at what teams are willing to pay for so-so rentals (and I am including Lucas Giolito in that category). I am sure that neither are truly on the table per se, but CWS and Cleveland are not going to stop a team from a significant overpay. CWS got a #2 (MLB Top 100) and #3 prospect for Giolito. What do you think they are going to want for Cease? For Luis Robert?
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/baseball-america/id201539011?i=1000622935242
This week on the 90th Percetile Geoff and Matt welcome on Jonah Rosenthal Dodgers Carolina Area Scout to discuss the 20th round pick of former Clemson and current Oregon State quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei. While Uiagalelei did not sign, the process of scouting the quarterback is a unique look into a scout and team getting creative in the MLB Draft.
Good points Jeff.
The starting pitching is in shambles. Dodgers posted the worst monthly starter ERA in LA Dodger history in July! Now there are 10 other teams trying to trade for starting pitching in addition to the Dodgers, and not too many attractive starters left. Verlander, Flaherty, Lorenzen and Rodriguez make sense to me depending on the prospect cost and competition. But the Dodgers bringing in Lynn and Kelly seems like a desperation move. I would have preferred Giolito or Montgomery even at a slightly higher prospect cost.
If the Dodgers do trade for another starter, they will still need to get Kershaw, Urias and Gonsolin right in order to be competitive in the stretch run and the playoffs. Fasten the seat belts.
LA Dodger history maybe, but the 1944 Brooklyn club posted a 7.17 starter ERA in July.
I am going to assume that the Dodgers will not pay the extortionist cost that will be asked for Dylan Cease,
Aaron Civale, and Mitch Keller. Of course AF/BG will ask, but I cannot see them paying it. CWS, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh respectively will take an overpay, but are more likely to keep them.That leaves:
Starting Pitching:
· Michael Lorenzen
· Jack Flaherty
· Eduardo Rodríguez
· Paul Blackburn
· Rich Hill
· José Quintana
Relief Pitchers:
· Scott Barlow
·
Paul Sewald· Keynan Middleton
· Brent Suter
· Brad Hand
· Brooks Raley
· Giovanny Gallegos
· José Cisnero
· Carlos Hernández
· Alex Lange
· Kyle Finnegan
· Aaron Bummer (the 2023 version)
Offense:
·
Jeimer Candelario· Tommy Pham
· Dylan Carlson
·
Mark Canha· Paul DeJong
· Teoscar Hernández
· Tim Anderson
Which of the above are you willing to give top prospects for? Top prospects: Which top 5? Which top 10? Other teams that occasionally compete are willing to pay that cost. Teams that consistently compete do not.
Top Rule 5 Draft 1st time eligible:
· Landon Knack
· Nick Frasso
· Kyle Hurt
· Yeiner Fernandez
· Kendall Williams
· Edgardo Henriquez
Previously passed on Rule 5 draft and still eligible:
· Hunter Feduccia
· Devin Mann
· José Ramos
· Alec Gamboa
· Gus Varland
· Carlos Duran
Every one of these guys have value and could play MLB level baseball, even if not at the All Star level. Which would you try to package? Which ones have to be protected?
I’m very conflicted about dealing for Verlander, so I’ll go along with whatever ultimately happens.
I would like to see us bring back Rich Hill, just because he can give us some innings. He’s averaging over 5 innings per start this year which means he’s going 6 and even 7 every so often. Is he an All Star pitcher? No, of course not, but we have so many guys injured or soon-to-be injured or up against innings restrictions that we need another arm.
I’m sure the Pirates would be happy to send him our way for Devin Mann and poor Devin will never get a chance in L.A. so we’d be helping him as well.
I really hope that Andrew convinces the Pirates or Royals to send us Keller or Singer at a price that isn’t totally crazy. I guess we’ll know in about 25 hours.
Still (unrealistically) hoping for Bednar or Clase but failing that, we still need another bullpen piece. Hernandez, Raley, Sewald, Finnegan, Lange. Take your pick.
Don’t see anything at all exciting in your offense list. Maybe AF will come up with a surprise. If not, I’m ready to go with what we have and would then hope Busch would get another chance sooner than later, although it would be preferable if he was a right handed hitter. Maybe we can convince the Nats to send us Lane Thomas for two of our young pitchers not named Sheehan or Miller.
Aaron Civale is off the table. Tampa Bay traded for him. 1B Kyle Manzardo is part of the package going to Cleveland. Manzardo is Tampa Bay’s #4, overall #37 in Top 100, and #2 overall 1B prospect.
As much as I would have rather he end up on the Dodgers or Sox.
I take great solace in the fact that a really smart team went for Civale!
I am reminded of the great Sam Miller line:
Speaks to the value of team control, as I quote Kiley McDaniel:
2.5ish years of Civale for 6ish years of Manzardo. Manzardo is a top 100 1B-only type that’s had a bit of a down year but can really hit and has enough power to profile.
Keith Law loved Manzardo’s hit tool
Would you have traded Michael Busch That would be somewhat of a comp.
I would! If Civale’s arm checks out.
Would the Guardians? Dunno!
I continue to be at a loss with how Busch gets meaningful playing time.
This is a nice thread of thought on it:
Right now, Busch is the better player. He is also 2.5 years older than Manzardo. So IF (BIG IF) both Busch and Manzardo were available, is Manzardo the better long term player?
You said,
You do mean with the Dodgers, right?
Yes! Sorry I wasn’t clear about that.
But we were talking about trading Busch from the Dodgers weren’t we?
Also, doesn’t Busch have one fewer year of control than Manzardo?
If so, Badger, this could be an indicator why starting the Arb clock is actually a big deal with a player’s value.
I was referred then to a 26 year old Knack.
Thought more about this. I don’t think Busch has enough thump for Cleveland.
not sure I’m right though
Paul Sewald to Arizona. I don’t yet know who is going back. Good deal for Arizona. He would have been a good fit with the Dodgers.
Josh Rojas, Dominic Canzone and Ryan Bliss headed to the Mariners. Civale deal was a one for one.
Return for Paul Sewald, who has been a very good reliever for Seattle for the last three years.
Dominic Canzone #19 Arizona prospect – 25 year old OF/1B – 40 man
Josh Rojas – 2 years +.739 OPS – Utility player – 40 man
Ryan Bliss #29 Arizona prospect – 23 year old middle infielder
Maybe a stiff price for Arizona, but Sewald gives them an outstanding back of the bullpen option, for three players they really did not need. Not great individual power.
Maybe a LAD comp – Yonny Hernández, Rayne Doncon, José Ramos.
Good trade for both organizations.
Seattle selling too.
Some WC3 team might win the WS this year.
Some WC3 team could with the WS every single year.
Doesn’t look like Friedman is going to make another trade. Maybe they get Verlander, but it’s doubtful. If that’s the case then it’s over. The Dodgers will not win the World Series with this pitching staff. Dunzo.
I think they are hunting the big game.
They may be done with minnows.
I just wish they still had Nastrini.
I agree it looks iffy at this time. But one never knows what is going on behind closed doors. We have all learned that AF is capable of pulling things off that have never been discussed. But that being said, outside of Verlander, what available player do you think is worth giving up top prospects for?
Maybe Eduardo Rodriguez, if you’re convinced his finger is okay. He has not pitched well at all since coming back. If injured, would he be worth absorbing $49MM for 3 more years?
Verlander wants to go back to Houston. He has a great relationship with the Cheaters owner. Houston has 1 player in Top 100 prospects, OF Drew Gilbert. LAD has 8, and 5 ranked higher than Drew Gilbert. So what is going to get NYM to trade Verlander to Houston. NYM wants to better their team. What can Houston offer to do that.
You cannot make a trade unless both teams want to trade. And yes, I know I am being Captain Obvious.
Two points of view:
There are still 58 games to be played. I think I’ll watch them played out and hope for a 1988 run like the Dodgers had. Even a 2018 run gets them into the WS.
I am not counting on it, but maybe Lance Lynn finds some of that 2020-2022 magic. Maybe the pitching gurus can change his pitch mix. There are too many maybes for me to quit on the Dodgers. .
Mark Canha to Brewers for RHP Justin Jarvis (Brewers #30 prospect).
Jarvis has a lot of helium about him. One online source has him up to #10 for Milwaukee by mid-season.
Also note:
The Mets are paying down Canha’s 2023 salary to the minimum. The Brewers are responsible for his $11.5 million buyout or $2 million buyout. Sorry for the confusion.
Mets got the green stuff . . .
Purely hypothetical from the Dodgers Digest Discord. Would you rather:
• Dodgers win the 2023 World Series and see Shohei Ohtani sign with the Giants this winter
• LA doesn’t win and signs Ohtani this winter. Assume at least 10 years & record-breaking money (total and AAV)
I went with the second one. I am in the minority.
How about this hypothetical. The Dodgers win the 2023 WS and signs Ohtani this winter. Assume at least 10 years & record-breaking money (total and AAV)
Not an option!
Nor was losing and not signing Ohtani.
Can’t I start my own hypothetical? 😀
Hypothetically you can do whatever you want! On your site.
Love it
I would ask for little else [sports-wise]
I want three rings to match SF
Jeimer Candelario to Cubs. Huge improvement for the Cubs over Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom.
Return to Nationals #14 prospect 20 year old SS, Kevin Made (A+), and #16 prospect 22 year old LHP, DJ Herz (AA).
Cue the 5-game losing streak for CHC.
AJ Pollock and utility Mark Mathias from Seattle to San Francisco for PTBNL.
Seattle selling. Fans must be pissed.
AJ Pollock going to the Giants and Candelario traded to the Cubs.
Sewald is a fantastic deal for Arizona. Candelario will make the Cubs better. Both prospects are 45 FV players. Candelario can help Chicago win NL Central this year. The two prospects are rated as platoon/bench players. I make that trade every day. The Dodgers had no place whatsoever for Candelario. Can’t get upset for losing a player LAD had no chance at getting. Outside of Civale and Sewald, I do not think any trade today (thus far) would have interested LAD.
I dont subscribe to the 45 FV talk.
Historically I dont think it holds water.
Oakland is starting to unravel their juggernaut team. They trade LHRP Sam Moll to Cincinnati for Reds #28 prospect RHSP, Joe Boyle, and international cap space.
Meh.
Don’t tell Andes but…
Noah Syndergaard has thrown five scoreless vs the Astros!
.. with 0 strikeouts and 2 swing and misses.
Four balls hit 350’+ and zero hits on them.
this is the best sport of all the sports.
Who is Andes?
Scott, Syndergaard was hit by a batted ball with one out in the 6th and removed from the game, the reliever immediately gave up a run and eventually the lead. Syndergaard went 5.1 with 1 ER and no K’s.
Roger, Wilco
Of course he did bear. He’ll probably pitch a shutout in his next start just for irony.
Interesting comparison:
What does one have to do with the other?
From Vassegh:
• There isn’t a feeling Dodgers are “all-in” on Justin Verlander and want him at “their price.” Thus not sure a deal can be reached.
• “Quite a bit of buzz” regarding their talks for Mitch Keller. BLUTO’S NOTE: Would love Keller. Controlled and has really developed. Will cost something largish though.
• Tommy Pham told 3 players on the team he “would love to play” for LA
Jeff, you’ve done a nice job with this blog. It might be the best one going. TBLA is trash, Mark is crazy and Dodger Digest has good prospect coverage and nothing else. Keep doing what you’re doing, my man.