For the third straight series the Dodgers won the first two and needed to win the finale for a sweep. In all three series, LAD came up short. Against Texas, without Corey Seager and Adolis Garcia, the Rangers took advantage of Emmet Sheehan’s lack of both command and control. Sheehan walked five, and all five scored. Sheehan also did not miss much of the plate with his pitches when they were strikes. That was especially true with 0-2 pitches.
Emmet Sheehan looked very much like a AA pitcher against a MLB team.
The Dodgers are coming home with a 6-3 record on a tough 9 game trip, and are 4.0 games ahead of both Arizona and San Francisco, and 10.0 games ahead of San Diego. San Diego is 6.0 games behind both Arizona and San Francisco for the final WC team. Cincinnati is 6.5 games ahead of San Diego in the #1 WC seeding. Philadelphia and Miami are 0.5 games behind Arizona and San Francisco in the Wild Card chase.
San Diego finds themselves with 5 teams ahead of them for a Wild Card. Per FanGraphs, their reaching the playoff odds are 35.2%. They have 7 games before the trade deadline. They are at home vs. Pittsburgh for three and Texas for three. They are on the road against Colorado the day before the trade deadline.
There were good and bad outcomes on this trip. First the bad. On this 9-game trip, the starting pitchers threw 44.2 IP or an average of less than 5.0 innings per start. Their ERA over those 9 games is 6.04.
The good. The bullpen threw 36.1 innings and allowed 3 earned runs for a 0.74 ERA. A couple of those starters ERA got out of control because it was clear they did not have much from the 1st inning, but the bullpen was already taxed enough so they were left out on the bump. This makes it somewhat of a mixed bag, but mostly positive. The Dodgers are just going to need to rely on bullpen depth and the ability to move pitchers in and out of OKC.
The good. The Dodgers scored 64 runs in the 9 games. That is an average of 7.1 runs per game. Only twice did the team score less than 5 runs. 2-1 loss to NYM in 10 innings, and 8-4 loss to Texas.
On the season, when the Dodgers score 4 or more runs, they are 51-19.
- 0-3 runs – 6-22
- 4-7 runs – 26-14
- 8 or more runs – 25-5
I am not in the camp that the Dodgers need a RH bat. Could they use one? Sure. IMO it is the starting pitching situation that needs to be addressed first.
Per ESPN Splits, the Dodgers splits are:
- vs LHP – .228/.325/.454/.779 – 851 AB + 114 BB = 965 (26%)
- vs RHP – .254/.340/.458/.797 – 2,448 AB + 298 = 2,746 (74%)
As of this post, the teams that are probably out of the playoff picture (5.0 Games or more out of the WC or Division leader) are:
- San Diego
- Colorado
- NYM
- Washington
- Cubs
- Louis
- Pittsburgh
- Detroit
- CWS
- KC
- Oakland
RHH outfielders from these teams:
- Randal Grichuk – Colorado (rental)
- Jurickson Profar – Colorado (rental)
- Kris Bryant – Colorado (5 years $131MM after 2023)
- Mark Canha – NYM (rental)
- Tommy Pham – NYM (rental)
- Lane Thomas – Washington (2 years, arbitration after 2023)
- Alex Call – (5 years control after 2023)
- Seiya Suzuki – Cubs (3 years $59MM after 2023)
- Tyler O’Neill – Cardinals (1 year arbitration after 2023)
- Dylan Carlson – Cardinals (3 years arbitration after 2023)
- Connor Joe – Pittsburgh (4 years arbitration after 2023)
- Matt Vierling – Detroit (1 year pre-arb + 3 years arbitration after 2023)
- Drew Waters – KC (2 years pre-arb + 3 years arbitration after 2023)
- Brent Rooker – Oakland (1 year pre-arb + 3 years arbitration after 2023)
Of course I eliminated multiple RH hitting OF that will not be moved: Jordan Walker (St. Louis), Luis Robert Jr. (CWS), Ian Happ (Cubs), Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh), Fernando Tatis Jr. (San Diego). KC is extremely unlikely to trade Drew Waters, but I still included him above.
There are four rental RH hitting outfielders: Grichuk, Profar, Canha, Pham. Maybe Bear can provide a better trade update, but I cannot remember the last time Colorado ever traded with LAD. They certainly had the opportunity to do so with Arenado, and LAD could have certainly given a better package. It has been reported that Pham has worn out his welcome in multiple cities. That would leave Mark Canha. Is he really an upgrade?
Many of the above are not desirable by the Dodgers. It is seemingly less likely that Lane Thomas will be moved (not absolute). Brent Rooker is hitting .202/.283/.365/.649 since April. Other OF with multiple years control will cost more prospect capital that AF/BG may want to spend, especially knowing they need SP more than any other position.
You want a RH bat, those are your options without an unknown surprise. The bat has to be a better option than Jonny Deluca and Miguel Vargas.
Starting pitching:
Rentals
- Lucas Giolito
- Jordan Montgomery
- Jack Flaherty
- Lance Lynn
- James Paxton
- Michael Lorenzen
- Kyle Hendricks
- Blake Snell
- Rich Hill
- Mike Clevinger
- Marcus Stroman (If he opts out as expected)
- Eduardo Rodriguez (if he opts out as expected)
Does anyone truly believe San Diego would trade Blake Snell to LAD without a vastly significant overpay? Will Seattle bring him home?
What prospects is AF/BG willing to cough up for rental SP? As an example, there is speculation that Baltimore could trade for St. Louis’ LHSP, Jordan Montgomery. The reported cost is Baltimore’s #11 prospect, 23 year old LHP, Cade Povich, a big strikeout AA pitcher (115 K in 76.1 IP), and their #12 prospect, 21 year old 3B, Max Wagner, 2022 2nd round pick. I have linked their MiLB stats page for reference.
Baltimore’s farm system is rated #1 overall, so these two prospects would be rated higher in most systems. For comparison purposes, the Dodgers #11 and #12 prospects are 24 year old RHP, River Ryan, and 22 year old 2B/3B, Jorbit Vivas. Ryan is not the strikeout pitcher that Povich is, but he does have better numbers all around. And he is still learning how to pitch. His ceiling is considered as a mid-rotation SP.
Jorbit Vivas is having a surprisingly good year at AA. He continues to showcase outstanding bat to ball skills, but considered to have very little power. Regardless, he has 10 HRs and 20 doubles this year. He still has excellent bat to ball skills and plate discipline/pitch recognition. 38 BB vs 40 K. He has good hands, but limited range as a 2B, but his bat to ball skills could see him there as a MLB player. Probably more as a utility infielder, but he should reach MLB. Probably not at their level, but think more like Adam Frazier, Daniel Murphy, and Nick Madrigal as a hit first 2B.
I may be biased (okay I am), but IMO, even if Baltimore’s system is considered superior, the Dodgers #11 and #12, are better prospects than Baltimore’s #11 and #12. I would do that deal of River Ryan and Jorbit Vivas for Jordan Montgomery. With the LAD system, both prospects are expendable.
The Dodgers have the necessary prospect capital to pick up two starters. Will they? What will distinguish the starter options? Will they pass on a proven mid-rotation starter because they did not want to include a specific prospect? Will they give additional consideration to Southern California prospects for potential extension? Lucas Giolito, Jack Flaherty, Michael Lorenzen, Kyle Hendricks.
Or will they try and go bigger with more MLB ready prospects or already with MLB experience?
Next up 3 at home against Toronto:
- José Berríos (RHP) vs Michael Grove
- Chris Bassitt (RHP) vs Julio Urías
- Yusei Kikuchi (LHP) vs Tony Gonsolin
Then Cincinnati:
- Brandon Williamson (LHP) vs TBD
- Luke Weaver (RHP) vs TBD
- Graham Ashcraft (RHP) vs TBD
07-23-2023 – MiLB Summary Game Reports
OKC Dodgers 5 – El Paso Chihuahuas (San Diego) 3
Gavin Stone got back in the win column. He started and completed 5.0 innings allowing 3 runs (2 earned) on 5 hits, 1 BB, 5 Ks. He threw 74 pitches (48 strikes). It was not stellar, but it was serviceable in the hitter friendly PCL. The offense was supplied by Michael Busch and a pair of 2 run HRs.
Key Performers:
- Michael Busch – 3-3, 1 BB, 2 runs, 4 RBI, 2 HR (15)
- Drew Avans – 2-4, 2 runs, double (17), triple (2)
- Kole Calhoun – 2-4
- Devin Mann – 1-3, 1 BB, double (League Leading 33)
NW Arkansas Naturals (KC) 9 – Tulsa Driller 8
Kyle Hurt started and pitched a decent 5.0 innings. He allowed 2 runs on 2 hits and 2 BB, with 7 K. Kyle now has 105 Ks in 61.1 IP against 26 BB. That is right at 4:1. Three pitchers surrendered 6 runs in the 6th and 7th innings to give NWA the lead. After tying the game in the 8th, NWA walked it off in the 9th with a triple and single.
Key Performers:
- Jorbit Vivas – 3-4, 3 Runs, 1 RBI
- José Ramos – 2-4, 1 run, 5 RBI, HR (17)
- Ismael Alcantara – 2-5, 1 run, 1 RBI, HR (1), double (2)
- Doubles – Austin Gauthier (9), Diego Cartaya (9), Yusniel Diaz (10)
Great Lakes Loons 5 – Lansing Lugnuts (A’s) 3
Justin Wrobleski was only able to go 3.1 innings. He allowed 3 run (2 earned) on 5 hits, including two solo HRs. Justin was relieved by 5 pitchers who navigated the final 5.2 scoreless and hitless innings. They did have 3 BB and 6 K. Benony Robles registered his 10th save.
Key Performers:
- Taylor Young – 2-5 1 run
- Luis Yanel Diaz – 2-4, 1 RBI
- Chris Newell – 1-4, 1 run, 2 RBI, HR (7)
Lake Elsinore Storm (San Diego) 9 – Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 8
Rancho had an 8-3 lead going into the 7th. A run in the 7th and 5 in the 8th sealed the loss for the Quakes. RC was 4-21 WRISP.
Key Performers:
- Thayron Liranzo – 4-5, 2 runs, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 2 doubles (10)
- Luis Guerra – 3-4, 1 run, 1 RBI, 2 doubles (6)
- Jorge Puerta – 2-4, 2 runs, 1 RBI, 1 BB, double (16)
- Simon Reid – 2-4, 1 run, 4 RBI, 2 doubles (9)
- Rayne Doncon – double (18)
Michael Busch has been on fire since we sent him down. I don’t know what position(s) he’s been playing in AAA, but I have to imagine that other teams out there 1) would love to have him and give him a starting job for the rest of the year (especially if that team is going nowhere in 2023), and 2) believe that since he has no room in LA, and is already 25 years old, that he can be had for cheaper than maybe he’s worth
I think he’s playing 3B. It’s Vargas that needs to do what Busch is doing, RHB, and many are calling for one. It feels like faith in Thompson, Vargas and Deluca to help through October may be waning.
Flaherty has given up 7 earned in his last 12 innings. Hendricks 6 earned in his last 10.2. Montgomery 6 earned in his last 12. Lynn 10 earned in his last 12. Giolito 10 earned in his last 15.2. They all take the ball and eat innings. I have no idea who the best fit is. I’m sure Friedman & Friends do.
Their respective teams are losing for a reason. However, for Lucas Giolito, 8 of those runs came in 3.2 IP against NYM. His other three July starts, 18.0 IP, 4 runs, 8 BB, 12 K, 18K. In his last start yesterday at Minnesota, 5.0 IP, 0 runs, 6 hits, 3 BB, 9K.
In addition to those that you named:
Marcus Stroman – In July – 20.1 IP, 14 ER, 19 H, 11 BB, 20 K, 2 HR. Last good outing was June 20.
Eduardo Rodriguez – Missed all of June due to a ruptured A4 Pulley in his finger. The pulley attaches the tendon to the bone, making it vital for a pitcher to grip the ball. July has not been kind to him: – 3 starts, 16.0 IP, 9 ER, 13 hits, 2 BB, 21 K, 2 HR.
It is not a common injury, but it appears that Eduardo is trying to come back well before others have. Adam Wainwright was out 10 weeks in 2008. Typical time table is 6 weeks, which is about 2 weeks sooner than E-Rod came back. Maybe he gets back to his pre-injury self. Maybe not.
James Paxton – Since Boston is still in it, it is doubtful that he is on the trade block. In July – 3 GS, 15.0 IP, 11 runs(10 earned), 12 hits, 5 BB, 14 K, 3 HR. Most damage done on 07/15 at Cubs – 3.0 IP, 6 runs (all earned). His other two starts were considered quality starts.
AJ Preller is not trading Blake Snell to LAD.
The one pitcher who has had a good July (albeit after a horrendous June) is Michael Lorenzen – 3 GS, 18.2 IP, 0 runs, 10 hits, 6 BB, 14 K.
None of these guys are aces. This is why AF does not like trading at the deadline. The elite quality is not there for a reason. LAD needs pitching, and Lucas Giolito, risk and all, may be the best bet. He also figures to be the costliest rental. But that is what AF/BG have to figure out.
You’re forgetting something, the Dodgers and Padres made a big trade together as recently as 2015 and that was under Friedman. Snell is a free agent at season’s end. If the Padres are not going to resign him they’ll likely trade him. Why not the Dodgers? Padres aren’t going anywhere this year anyways.
Snell or not, all prospects in the system need to be available to bring in at least words starting pitcher. Especially since none of them are likely to become all-stars. Would prefer Snell but would take giolito or Montgomery. Or even Lorenzen.
As Badger said, Busch is playing primarily 3B, but not very well. 11 errors in 104 total chances. That works out to a .894 fielding percentage. If Busch were 21 you could work with him. But he will be 26 next year, and has never been considered a good defensive player. He is a DH trying to find a defensive position. His bat to ball skills are so much better this year. He is OPS’ing 1.006. His K rate is 19.68% and his walk rate is 15.48%. Last year, Busch was at 26.05% and 11.54 % respectively. Both his SLG and OBP are up this year. His OBP is .429.
His bat needs to be in the lineup, but I am not sure about his glove on the field.
He is a top 40 prospect, so AF/BG is not going to give him away for a reliever like Pierce Johnson.
Might be just an anomaly, but LA seems to have trouble winning on getaway days on the road. They have lost roughly twice as many as they have won.
What a terrible outing by Sheehan. It was like batting practice out there for Texas. Another learning experience for the young pitcher. I like his stuff, but in MLB it’s mostly about location. Right now that seems to be the area that he will need to work on for the rest of this season and in the offseason. I agree that another start should be given to ES. That should be able to happen before the return of some injured starters.
Carry on.
Sheehan went from 0.00 ERA in his first outing to a 6.75 in the next 5 games. His last three have been progressively worse. One more outing? Sure. Too bad we don’t have a better option.
We are winning with offense and a revitalized bullpen. The trade is coming soon. I hope the offense has the stamina to last to November.
Good info on Sheehan’s regression Badger. As a young pitcher having a great opening outing he may have tried to be too fine with his pitches in the next 2-3 outings. Then with not doing well in those starts he presses even more and we get the results in the last two outings. It’s the journey these young guys must travel as part of developing into a successful MLB pitcher. We have seen Miller progressing and somewhat in Grove lately. Each has their own timetable to learn to be a pitcher. I think they all have the talent necessary to be a success either as a starter or in the BP.
Of course you’re right Ted. I would like to give another AA rocket launcher a shot. Sheehan has the tools, I think he’s here a little early. Knack may be next, or maybe he’s traded. If Pepiot and Kershaw make it back soon, Sheehan can go work on finding the edges in Oklahoma.
I mean, in my silly opinion, Pepiot would be great, if he’s ready. He is already on the 40.
Knack feels like a wasted start.
Why is Knack a wasted start?
Just because he’s not on the 40.
Oh. That. Ok.
Or what if he is just overrated? Or not that good?
Then he gets appended to that long list.
I looked it up Jeff, last time the Dodgers made a trade with the Rockies was November 24th, 2014. They traded a player to be named later ( Noel Cuevas) a minor leaguer, to the Rockies for Juan Nicasio. Nicasio would pitch out of the pen and appeared in 53 games, winning 1, losing 3 and he had1 save. ERA was 3.86
I do remember that now. That was one of AF/FZ’s first moves. Still does not bode well for a Randal Grichuk acquisition. I think the Dodgers have a better chance at getting Arenado from St. Louis than Grichuk from Colorado. Neither will happen.
Hey Jeff,
Thoughts on Chris Newell? I know he’s overaged and recently promoted, but seen a lot of positive press on him.
I want to see how he finishes at Great Lakes. He owned the California League. The Midwest League is a much more pitcher friendly league. Newell is showing + power. If he finishes strong, I think he could pass Damon Keith on the prospect list. The Dodgers need OF prospects, so he is worth monitoring. At this time, he is probably a #4 OF. He looks to be a LH hitting Jonny Deluca.
Yeah a sweep would have been nice. Just keep winning the series is fine with me. According to my calculation they are 20 Wins -11 Losses and 1tie in series this year.
Still think we need another top of line rotation piece but don’t have a clue who they will target. Not convinced that our rotation is good enough for the playoffs. Seen enough of Noah Syndergaard, Buehler isn’t ready and May is out until next year.
Braves traded for two pitchers, Pierce Johnson from the Rockies, they sent two pitching prospects for Johnson, and lefty Tyler Hearn from the Rangers. No word on who they sent to Texas.
Hearn was DFA’s so it will not be much. I am working on a comment on the return for Johnson. It is scary what these guys are worth at the deadline.
A Bear reported, Colorado traded journeyman RHRP Pierce Johnson to Atlanta for a pair of middling pitching prospects. The return:
· 23 year old RHRP Victor Vodnik – AA – #10 Atlanta prospect
· 25 year old RHSP Tanner Gordon – AA – #26 Atlanta prospect
Atlanta has what is considered the very worst farm system, so even those ratings need to be tempered. For comparison in ranking only (not quality) the Dodgers #10 is Josue De Paula and #26 is Samuel Muñoz. These two guys are more untouchable for me as anyone not named Bobby Miller. The Atlanta duo is probably more similar to Ronan Kopp (#18) and Peter Heubeck (#29). I like Kopp and Heubeck more than Vodnik and Gordon.
What is scary is if this is what teams are expecting for journeymen relievers, what are they expecting for mid-rotation pitching? What is Colorado expecting for Grichuk?
Reds have made Jonathan India available for trade. Anyone interested?
They are looking for controllable pitching. That would seem to indicate, Pepiot, Sheehan, Stone, Grove. Baseball Trade Simulator has India with a value of 17.
India is rated only slightly better defensively than is Vargas. I am not sure that India is worth one of the 4 pitchers identified above.
No way I give up any of those pitchers for India. We don’t need a 2B. We need pitching. Both starters and relievers.
I haven’t been all that impressed with AF’s trade deadline history.
Josh Fields-Yordan Alvarez Swap
Tony Watson for Oneil Cruz
Reddick, Machado, Gallo, Darvish. Except for Betts, none of AF’s deadline deals have garnered the Dodgers a WS championship.
I would not give up any top tier prospects for rentals.
Scherzer-Turner was a deadline deal also. It was very welcomed by Dodger fans at the time. No World Series, but they got to the wild card game in a dash to the end with the Giants and then beat SF in the NLDS, which to me was almost as satisfying as a World Series win. Betts was not a deadline deal, he was dealt in March. He signed his extension just before 2020 kicked off. There was no trade deadline in 2020. The only in season trade they made in 2020 was sending Stripling to Toronto in August. Machado was technically not a deadline trade either. They got him on the 18th of July right after the All-Star game. Alvarez-Fields does not count. Alvarez had not even played in the Dodger system and had been signed about 1 1/2 months before the trade. At the deadline in 2018 he traded for Dozier and Axford. On the day they got Watson, they also traded for Cingrani and Darvish.
AF is not the whiz kid, baseball savant everyone thinks he is. He has made more than his share of mistakes and is overrated. He is good, but not all that.
No, he has made some questionable moves, but show me one GM who hasn’t. Syndergaard at this point is a huge fail.
I might be wrong (and likely I am), but I think Giolito, who’s been off and on this year, would be revitalized by coming home and pitching for us. Kind of like how Verlander was so so in 2016/2017 for a crap team, and everyone thought he was on his way down. And then he goes into a pennant race for a good team (who are scum trash for cheating) and gets revitalized and has been really good ever since.
I hope we trade for Giolito, and I hope if he has a good 3 months for us, we keep him.
Scott, good point above about the Pads/Dodgers making that Grandal/Kemp deal. I’d say the only difference is that was done in the offseason when SD thought they were “winning” the deal. Now, I think for them to “win’ a Snell deal, we’d have to overwhelm them with a Bobby Miller whereas nobody else would have to pay that much. Of course, if Snell agreed to an extension with us, maybe he’d be worth paying a bit more for?
For Scott per Bobby’s point above:
Scott, I did not forget the Grandal/Kemp trade. That was done when both AF and Preller were just starting their new careers. San Diego wanted a name (Kemp) to fill seats and the Dodgers needed a catcher (Grandal). The Pads were not a rivalry of the Dodgers in December 2014. Not even remotely. I doubt that LAD fans thought that San Diego was anything more than a vacation spot.
Now the Padres and the Dodgers do not like each other at all, especially the SD fan base. You have the Owner not allowing fans with LA addresses to buy tickets for the playoffs in SD. If the Padres dealt anybody who could help LAD when a WS, AJ Preller would be run out of town (IMO). And I do not think Seidler would allow it. AF is not about to overpay for Snell, so he is going to go to some other team. Maybe Cincinnati who has the prospect capital to make it happen. Baltimore does as well.
Although, I do think it would be special if the Dodgers did somehow acquire Snell and he pitched in one of the 4 games to be played in SD the weekend following the deadline. Neither Seidler nor Preller are going to let that happen.
Now if your question is which rental pitcher would I prefer it would be Snell. I just think it is a pipedream.
Here is a trade from the Trade Simulator that will be sure to get AJ Preller excited:
Shelby Miller, Nick Nastrini, Noah Syndergaard, Cash for Josh Hader and Blake Snell. How does AF get this done? 😂
Agree. Snell would be at the top of the market, but there’s been nary a report that he’s even available (to Dodgers or anyone.)
Jon Heyman, not known for his accuracy, but he does get it right sometimes, says the Pirates are now listening on Bednar.
Trade Simulator says Busch plus Stone is a slight overpay, but if someone gets Bednar they’ll have to over pay. I’m in. Anyone else?
Bednar has a record of consistent quality pitching, is controllable for 3 years after this one and isn’t making a ton of money.
He could be a difference maker for our bullpen this year and going forward. 3 more years of control. I would be kicking the tires on this one. Probably going to take an overpay to get him. Might be worth it.
Yes, a slight overpay, but probably worth it.
Now, a front rotation starter. Or two.
Bednar has 3 years after this year of control (arbitration). Pittsburgh has to believe that they will be contenders next year, so the cost will be steep. Plus relievers are fickle.
That trade is something that I would consider. Busch is basically blocked, and Stone is one of many MLB or MLB ready RHP in the Dodgers stable of pitchers. Bednar is a game changer for LAD. But I would also try to add RHP lottery ticket Thomas Harrington. That would even out the trade simulator. Pittsburgh giving up 33.3 and LAD giving up 33.1. Harrington has a plus change which the Dodger pitching gurus seem to like. He is a 22 year old in High A. Pittsburgh’s #11 prospect.
Without Harrington, I would still consider it. The downside is that Busch might be needed for a SP.
The optimal word in this story is listen. The Pirates are willing to listen. Doesn’t mean he will be traded.
The Bucs have moved from not discussing Bednar in any deal, to we are listening. That means…So you think there’s a chance.
Any thoughts on Dodgers acquiring Tommy Pham? Just asking. Not necessarily interested. Have heard it mentioned.
Not interested. I do not believe his personality would fit in the clubhouse. He has worn out his welcome with at least two teams. He is a get in your face type of personality. That will not play well with the current roster.
He slapped Joc in the face.
Bumsrap won’t let us do it.
The Dodgers getting Pham would be the second slap.
Bieber moved to 60 day IL. No shot he gets traded now.
Friedman just got more interested.
Not until he’s surgically repaired.
Friedman knows what he’s doing. It may, or may not work, but he knows what he’s doing.
Can we trade for him this week with delivery in February 2025?
Futures trading. Done every day.
Another game the bullpen has to win.