I keep reading; you try to put the best team on the field that you can but without killing the future. I am not sure what that means. One GM’s idea of killing the future will be different than another’s idea. But I am guessing that a trade scenario that I just read falls into that category, without question. I just found this particular trade scenario unfathomable from someone who considers himself a journalist. His trade scenario would be to trade Diego Cartaya (#2), Michael Busch (#3), Gavin Stone (#5), Andy Pages (#6), Ryan Pepiot (#8), and River Ryan (#13). That could be close to 50 years of control of 6 of the top 13 prospects in the best farm system in MLB. For whom? 3 months of Shohei Ohtani. His rationale? The Dodgers get to keep Bobby Miller (#1), Dalton Rushing (#4), Emmet Sheehan (#7), Nick Frasso (#9), and Nick Nastrini (#10).
BTW, the first 5 of those prospects suggested to be traded are all in the newly published updated MLB Pipeline Top 100 prospects. MLB Pipeline continues to update the list once multiple prospects graduate as a prospect and into becoming a MLB player. How is that defined? Per MLB Glossary: “A player shall be considered a rookie unless he has exceeded any of the following thresholds in a previous season (or seasons): • 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues. • 45 total days on an active Major League roster during the Championship Season (excluding time on the Injured List).” Once a player achieves those milestones, that player is no longer considered a prospect for these prospect lists.
On June 25, 2023, Sam Dykstra (MLB Pipeline) published the updated Top 100 list. Lo and Behold, the Dodgers are again back at the very tippy top of farm systems. Baltimore may choose to argue the point, but I think they lose that argument. The Dodgers have NINE top 100 prospects:
- Bobby Miller (RHP) – #9
- Diego Cartaya (C) – #22
- Michael Busch (INF) – #38
- Dalton Rushing (C) – #51 – NL Futures Game roster
- Gavin Stone (RHP) – #53
- Andy Pages (OF) – #58
- Emmet Sheehan (RHP) – #78
- Ryan Pepiot (RHP) – #84
- Nick Frasso (RHP) – #95
That is 5 RHP, 2 catchers, 1 infielder, and 1 OF. Gee, I wonder who the Dodgers prefer to develop?
Baltimore follows LAD with 7 top 100 prospects:
- Jackson Holliday (SS) – #1 – AL Futures Game roster
- Colton Cowser (OF) – #15
- Jordan Westburg (INF) – #34 – just called up to MLB by Baltimore
- Heston Kjerstad (OF) – #40 – AL Futures Game roster
- Joey Ortiz (SS/2B) – #67
- Connor Norby (2B/OF) – #71
- Coby Mayo (3B) – #80
That is 5 infielders and 2 outfielders. It appears that Baltimore has a different approach to prospects when compared to LAD.
Arizona had 3 top 25:
- Jordan Lawler (SS) – #7
- Druw Jones (CF) – #16
- Brandon Pfaadt (RHP) – #25
Arizona also has multiple prospects not in the top 100, but will definitely be playing ML baseball, and many can be used to package for that #3 SP, pushing Tommy Henry or Ryne Nelson to the bullpen.
Below is a table as to where each team falls within the top 100 prospects.
| Selections Per Prospect Rankings | ||||||
| Team | 0-10 | 11-25 | 26-50 | 51-75 | 76-100 | Total |
| LAD | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| Baltimore | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| Cincinnati | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| Washington | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| Texas | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Cleveland | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| Pittsburgh | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Milwaukee | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Boston | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| San Diego | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| Tampa Bay | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Minnesota | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Arizona | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| CHC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Philadelphia | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| San Francisco | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Colorado | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Seattle | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Miami | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| CWS | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Oakland | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Detroit | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| St. Louis | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Toronto | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Atlanta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Houston | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kansas City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 15 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 100 | |
Cincinnati also has an excellent farm system where they can use top prospects to get help at the deadline. They have 6 top 100 prospects.
- Elly De La Cruz (SS) – #2 – 21 years old playing very well at MLB
- Noelvi Marte (SS/2B) – #18 – 21 years old at AA
- Edwin Arroyo (SS) – #27 – 19 years old at A+
- Cam Collier (3B) – #58 – 18 years old at A
- Andrew Abbott (LHP) – #60 – 24 years old at MLB
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1B/3B) – 23 years old at AAA
Taking a look at the updated LAD Top 30 prospects:
1-10
- RHP – 6
- Catcher – 2
- Infield – 1
- Outfield – 1
11-20
- Outfield – 2
- Infield – 3
- RHP – 2
- Catcher – 1
- LHP – 2
21-30
- OF – 3
- Infield – 3
- Catcher – 1
- RHP – 2
- LHP – 1
Overall
- RHP – 10
- Infield – 7
- Outfield – 6
- Catcher – 4
- LHP – 3
RHP
- Bobby Miller – #1 – MLB
- Gavin Stone – #5 – AAA
- Emmet Sheehan – #7 – MLB
- Ryan Pepiot – #8 – MLB IL
- Nick Frasso – #9 – AA
- Nick Nastrini – #10 – AA
- River Ryan – #13 – AA
- Landon Knack – #18 – AAA
- Kyle Hurt – #28 – AA
- Peter Heubeck – #30 – A
The above does not include Michael Grove who now has 60.1 IP and is no longer considered a prospect, but was on this list earlier.
That is 11 RHSP prospects still prospects or rookies. There are also three LHSP:
- Maddux Bruns – #15 – A+
- Ronan Kopp – #19 – A+
- Justin Wrobleski – #29 – A
Going back to the original premise… you try to put the best team on the field that you can but without killing the future. In 2021, the Dodgers packaged both their #1 and #2 prospects Josiah Gray (RHP) and Keibert Ruiz (C) for 3 months of Max Scherzer (RHSP) and 1 year and 3 months of Trea Turner. It did not turn out positive for LAD, but I would still do that trade 10 out of 10 opportunities. The cost was the Dodgers top two prospects, and it did not kill the future. In fact, the future is so much better after less than 2 years.
Do the Dodgers need 11 RHP prospects? Do they need 4 top catching prospects?
- Diego Cartaya – #2 (21 at AA)
- Dalton Rushing – #4 (22 at A+)
- Yeiner Fernandez – #14 (20 at A+)
- Jesus Galiz – #23 (19 at A)
The above does not include Thayron Liranzo (19 at A), Nelson Quiroz (21 at ACL), or Carlos Rojas (20 at ACL). There are also multiple catching prospects at DSL. The best may be 18 year old Victor Rodriguez.
The above also does not include a pair of potential MLB backup catchers: Hunter Feduccia (26 at AAA) and Carson Taylor (24 at AA).
Bottom line is that LAD has a boatload of potential MLB talent in their loaded system they cannot possibly utilize each and every one on their roster. I also do not believe that the starting pitching is deep enough with proven MLB starters they can go into the playoffs with what they currently have on their 40 man. I certainly trust the braintrust that has led the Dodgers with the best team (based on W-L percentage) since AF was hired to make the decisions.
I cannot remember when AF traded for a starting pitcher that was not a pure rental: Rich Hill, Yu Darvish, Max Scherzer. While I would not rule out Shane Bieber, I would certainly not consider him at the top of the priority list. The same is true with Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff. Marcus Stroman will cost a lot in prospect capital. He has said that he wants to remain a Cub, but will almost certainly choose to opt out for a better (longer) deal. He is hoping that Chicago will tear up the existing contract and extend him without opt outs. His current contract calls for $21MM in 2024 IF he does not opt out.
The same is true for Eduardo Rodriguez (Detroit) who has an opt out after 2023 and will have three years and $49MM remaining. It is widely rumored that Eduardo will opt out.
The Dodgers are not going to spend the player capital to acquire pitchers who are not pure rentals, but could turn out to be.
I think it is totally out of character to trade with NYM for Justin Verlander as Jim Bowden (The Athletic) has suggested. The time to do that was 2017. He is owed the remainder of $43.3MM 2023 salary and a full $43.3MM salary for 2024, and a $35MM vesting option for 2025 if he pitches 140 innings in 2024.
For me, the #1 SP priority has to be RHSP Lucas Giolito (CWS). He is a pure rental, and one who will be a very favorable extension target or FA signing for 2024. #2 priority would seem to be pure rental LHSP Jordan Montgomery (St. Louis). I do think that an outside option will be true rental RHSP Jack Flaherty (St. Louis). Not my personal choice, but he does seem to fall into the…”We can rebuild him. We have the technology. We can make him better than he was. Better, stronger, faster” category that AF likes to pull from.
With Daniel Hudson and Jimmy Nelson sure to help the current LAD bullpen, and a longshot possibility of Ken Giles, I think the urgency to rebuild the bullpen is no longer a top priority. That will also hold true if the Dodgers pick up 1 SP (dare I say 2), and move quality starting arms into the bullpen for the stretch run.
RH bat? I have no idea who that could be. St. Louis is rumored to be listening on Paul Goldschmidt. Not coming to LAD. Next!!!
Making a trade with prospects will not kill the future, but not trading prospects could create a logjam that will not be easily rectified with the talented RHP the Dodgers have. Pruning always helps an organism grow. While AJ Preller may take a chain saw, AF will use cutting shears.
Not considering Max Muncy or Chris Taylor as options, what potential deals for SP would some of you armchair GMs pose?
So much for Michael Busch getting more time at 2B with Miguel Vargas getting a little more pine time. It looks like Mookie is going to be playing 2B a little more with Heyward in RF. With the LH hitting Muncy activated, the LH hitting Busch is optioned and not the switch hitting Yonny Hernández. LAD loves their mix and match opportunities.
As I said, Mookie at 2B, Heyward in RF. The only rookie I’m supporting so far is Outman. I was behind him right from the beginning.
What to do with Max? He can hit the HR but not much else. Arenado trade package?
Arenado??!?!??
That’s out of the blue.
What’s the thinking? His value will be depressed due to the contract?
Can the Dodgers get both him and leave room for Ohtani?
Ohtani is but a dream……..
Next year with no additions and losing Urias it’s possible they have Kershaw, May,Buehler,Miller,Sheehan,Pepiot. So even a rental this year would help.
Don’t forget Gonsolin.
Yes, so another reason to agree w Jeff, AF only needs to get a rental starter becsuse we will have enough next year.
We had 8 at the beginning of this year and that was not enough.
Yes that’s true, and it happens every year, plus after the first 2 months they start using a sixth starter when needed. There was a time when clubs used a 4 man rotation, then it changed to 5, now they break that pattern to give guys more rest and the Japanese league is a six man rotation.
I guess your point is that they should trade for a starter that they can control next year as well. Plus I wasn’t counting Urias who they might resign.
Given how bad they’ve been it’s interesting that Oakland only has 2 in the top 100. Equally surprised to see KC at the bottom.
The Dodgers could fill a lot of holes KC has in exchange for Witt.
I would exhaust that effort before using critical trade pieces for a pitcher.
You must think Witt will eventually improve.
I do think he will improve. Actually quite a bit. You are a big believer in Miguel Vargas. You believe he will improve quite a bit. So do I. Witt is 7 months younger than Vargas. Witt is outhitting Vargas and that is Vargas’s ticket to being a regular. Witt has a +6 Outs Above Average (6th overall SS) and has a 88.4 MPH Arm Strength (5th among SS). Vargas has a -6 OAA (3rd from bottom for 2B), and 78.6 MPH Arm Strength (16th for 2B). Witt has nobody surrounding him in the lineup, except Salvador Perez. Vargas cannot say the same. Witt has elite speed. Vargas slightly above average. Witt is a complete player, whereas Vargas needs to hit to stay a regular. So if you think Vargas will improve (I agree), then a younger Witt has to as well, right? Moreso if he is on a championship caliber team.
As badly as KC needs players, they have nobody to play SS, and the Dodgers do not have anyone who would interest KC at the SS position. KC is not going to do a complete rebuild, because they would do that with Witt as their centerpiece to build around. The Dodgers could throw a package including some of: Cartaya, Vargas, Busch, Frasso, Knack, Bruns, Nastrini, Pepiot, and lower level players/pitchers (they have enough). But no SS even remotely close (if ever).
The other problem (and more importantly) is that Witt is not what the Dodgers need to make them a championship team this year. They need starting pitching.
Witt will be a KC Royal for many years. If KC ownership is smart, they would extend him now. Atlanta would have.
On July 6, I am headed to KC for a week to visit with family (rabid Royals fans…okay and Chiefs). I will ask them what they think of Witt.
I was just pulling Bum’s lanyard.
But excellent analysis Jeff.
Maybe KC would gamble on Lux at short. Lux, Vargas, Busch, May, …
SS Witt
2B. Betts
1B. Freeman
C. Smith
LF. Peralta
DH. Martinez
CF. Outman
3B. Gleyber
RF. Heyward
Warning I’m thinking about calling my big brother if you persist on pulling my lanyard.
Your brother? When did he get released?
That just shows how badly Oakland butchered their trades for their stars.
If the Cards continue to suck (currently in last place), would they make Nolan Arrenado available???
If so, there’s our right handed bat. Go get him, as we’ll have him for several years going forward.
Interesting idea about Arenado, and I do think they would consider it. I think they would have to throw money into it in order to get meaningful prospects. He has 4 years and $109MM remaining (plus what remains on this year). Including the Rockies $$$, Arenado’s AAV is $25.55MM. $25MM for 2024-2027 would drop the AAV to roughly $20MM for 4 years. He is probably not a GG anymore. That will go to Ke’Bryan Hayes. But he is still darn good.
I like the idea, but I still think the Dodgers need the SP.
Cohen is having a press conference today, probably to discuss the Mets current fall. SD has fallen a lot as to having prospects in their system. They gutted the franchise for some guys who have not lived up to their billing. aka Soto.
Soto currently has about a 160 OPS+ or 60% above league average and that’s after a horrible start this year. He’s not the problem. It’s Machado and to a certain extent Bogaerts.
I think the Padres problem is chemistry. Plenty of good tslent but too many “characters”.
The Rockies should try to get Martinez from the Dodgers.
The Rockies do not have a single player the Dodgers would want.
Joke
Yes they are. But no one in Denver is laughing.
They still draw better than Arizona and Cincinnati.
I thought Cincinnati was supposed to be a baseball town? We’ve learned to accept fan apathy in Florida, but come on people. Your FCI is, by comparison, quite low. Arizona’s is the lowest in baseball. Don’t be like me, get out there and support your team! Spend dammit!
Bear, aren’t you still high on the smell of Nuggets? I bet people at Mile High sit there and talk basketball. Might as well. Baseball season is almost over.
No longer a basketball fan, and if I was, Denver would not be my team. Hockey and Basketball are the favorites here. A lot of talk about CU with Neon Deion as the coach.
What’s the update on Deion’s blood clots?
Last I read, he would not have to have his foot removed.
Interesting trade idea. We could sure use Ohtani. Would I do that much for a rental? Maybe. I’d have to think about it.
Why is everyone so sold on “a right handed bat”? 28% of innings thrown in MLB come from the left side. If we are going to trade for a non pitcher how about we trade for someone who can hit.
Soto has turned it up. In the last two weeks he’s OPS’n 1.191. Hasn’t seemed to help the Padres much. If they are still 10.5 games out at the deadline?….. he ain’t right handed but I’d take him. Doubt the Padres would trade him to us though. They probably would rather dump Machado on us. No thanks.
Prospects. We go through this every year. My philosophy on them is choose the two you are most likely to promote next year and, only if necessary, use others to improve the team this year. At this moment I keep Miller and Cartaya and any of the others can go in the right trade.
Pitching. Specifically starting pitching. I like what Jeff has proposed. Giolito is not an All Star but he’s 28, takes the ball every 5 days and goes 6. He’s just what this team needs. We could use 2 of them actually.
Anybody have a read on why Kershaw ran out of gas after 79 pitches? I’ll say it was just the altitude and hope he’s ready for his next start.
After the game he was non committal. But it seems he was not feeling all that great. He wanted today to evaluate how he felt before saying anything. Roberts seemed unconcerned and CK said that if he still had the no-hitter going, he would have went back out. Some have suggested his back was barking at him again.
I too would pay a ton for Soto, he’s going to be an FA soon (2025) so if Ohtani doesn’t happen I have to think Soto will be a target.
Dropped a can of green beans on my foot and damn that hurts!
If you buy them fresh, it doesn’t hurt as much when you drop them.
Gee Badger, thanks for that totally useless info.
Welcome. I got plenty more if you need it.
Scherzer has said he would waive his no trade clause and Cohen has said he would kick in some money. Who would be easier to get, Scherzer or Giolito? I could see Giolito costing less as a rental but it will be a sellers market for pitching. How about Tommy Pham as a right hand bat. Currently OPS .787 and would be a rental.
Tommy Pham is a rear end.
Giolito is a local and probably would like to be a Dodger. He is a good fit.
We are near the top in runs and OPS, we are 23rd in pitching. We don’t need a right handed bat, we need pitching. Giolito would be a great fit.
And he hits right handed.
That could come in handy too. He’s 6’6” and hit .440 in high school. Or maybe he ran the 440. Had a 440 Magnum? Maybe his address was 440. Anyway, he’s a good fit.
Gotta score 8.
Vargas and Outman need a reset at OKC.
9 earned in 8. That won’t help the staff’s already inflated ERA.
We need pitching.