It has been 3 weeks since the trade deadline. I find it curious when fans comment that AF does not know how to compete for the WS when he did not come up with Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas, or even Tyler Mahle or Nathan Eovaldi. I am speaking more of the commenters on The Athletic and MLBTradeRumors, many of which are LAD haters.
- Luis Castillo – 4 Games, 25.2 IP, 3.16 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, 29/7 (K/BB)
- Frankie Montas – 3 Games, 14.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 1.714 WHIP, 8/6 (K/BB)
- Tyler Mahle – IL with shoulder issue
- Nathan Eovaldi – to go on IL with neck and shoulder soreness
None of those are worth the quality and quantity of top prospects it would have taken to consummate the trade. IMO it made more sense to wait for Dustin May and Clayton Kershaw. We saw what Dustin May could do, and he still has 8-9 more starts to fine tune his repertoire. His new changeup looked like it could become a special pitch like his slider.
Let’s take a look at that slider.
Austin Barnes had a few comments on Dustin’s first start.
“The ball’s coming in really hot,” catcher Austin Barnes said.
“It’s moving, going this way and then he’s got some stuff going that way. He’s got a good four-seam that can rise at the top, too. By the time he throws that breaking ball at you, it’s hard to adjust to all those speeds and all those movements.
“That kind of pitcher, the sky’s kind of the limit for him.”
“He’s a special kind of pitcher,” Barnes said.
I am willing to bet on Clayton Kershaw, even with his mediocre to poor playoff resume. Some of those games he has been absolutely brilliant. Some not so much. He has pitched well this year when healthy, so if he is healthy, I like the Dodgers chances with CK on the bump.
Andrew Benintendi was considered the best bat available after Juan Soto and Josh Bell. We also know that NYY traded for Benny because of their dissatisfaction with Joey Gallo. Since the trades:
- Benintendi – .211/.322/.368/.691 – 1 HR, 22% K Rate and 14.3% BB Rate, .158 ISO
- Gallo – .267/.371/.667/1.038 – 3 HR, 40% K Rate, 11.4% BB Rate, .400 ISO
Another reason why we are writing in a blog and not making decisions; relief pitching trades. Many names were thrown out there…David Robertson, Jorge Lopez, Scott Effross, and even Raisel Iglesias. I know Josh Hader was mentioned, but nobody expected AF to pay the price most acknowledged it would take. But I cannot remember ever reading about why Chris Martin should be the choice.
Since the trade:
- Raisel Iglesias – 9 games, 7.2 IP, 1.17 ERA, 0.913 WHIP, 1 Save/1 BS, 8/2 (K/BB)
- Josh Hader – 5 games, 3.1 IP, 16.20 ERA, 3.000 WHIP, 0 Save/1 BS, 4/5 (K/BB)
- David Robertson – 8 games, 8.2 IP, 2.08 ERA, 1.038 WHIP, 3 Saves/1 BS, 11/3 (K/BB)
- Jorge Lopez – 8 games, 8.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 3 Saves/2 BS, 6/4 (K/BB)
- Scott Effross – Going on the IL with shoulder issues.
Iglesias was a salary dump as this is the first year of a 4 year $58MM contract that Atlanta will absorb. His contract calls for $16MM for each of 2023-2025. I think AF passes on that contract all day long.
And AF picks up Chris Martin.
- C-Mart – 9 games, 9.1 IP, 1.93 ERA, 0.429 WHIP, No Save Opportunities, 12/0 (K/BB)
He does have 3 wins in those 9 games.
Finally, let’s review the Padres deadline trade acquisitions.
- Juan Soto – .286/.438/.460/.898
- Josh Bell – .138/.263/.262/.525
- Brandon Drury – .212/.264/.394/.658
Add in Josh Hader, and that is not the return AJ Preller was looking for…thus far.
We can review again at the end of the season, but both the Gallo and C-Mart trades look to be solid, and the non-trades for the starting pitchers and other relievers are proving to be just as positive.
Good write-up Jeff. Coldplay has been a pleasant surprise. He just keeps pounding the zone. I like what I’ve seen from Gallo. Smith and Muncy both 0-5 yet the team scores 10. You never know which guys will step up each game. Thompson absolutely annihilated that home run ball. Hopefully Taylor will turn the corner but I’m not holding my breath. Lux’s neck is a concern. Alberto with a 1.80 ERA and a .248 BA is fun to watch. RIP Len Dawson.
I guess AF does know what he is doing. Turns out, many times, the best trade is no trade. Most of those decisions were fairly easy as the asking price was grossly inflated.
What do the Dodgers do with Taylor? He is a mess.
I think Castillo would have been an excellent fit on this particular team. I don’t know much about Seattle other than it’s often cool and wet up there.
Gonsolin 77 pitches. Hmm. Maybe that’s how to save arms for the post season – short outings, minimal number of pitches, turn it over to the pen. Might work.
Roberts said after the game that with a big lead, he pulled him because he did not have his best stuff. Makes sense to me. And the pen has been good. Why push the envelope.
Why push the envelope I buy. Not sure I buy the excuse. 5 IP, 77 pitches. That’s good. 1 earned. That’s very good. WHIP of 1 which is excellent. With a big lead let’s give him some rest. He’s now matched the most IP in his career, which was done in the minors. Uncharted territory now through October.
Badger,
Everything is uncharted.
Nothing about the future is known.
Just enjoy the ride.
I do every year Bluto.
Castillo would have been fantastic, but not at the cost. The Dodgers already have three with better seasons thus far: Gonsolin, Urias, Anderson. I think I take May before Castillo, and I also prefer Kershaw to Castillo. Sentimental sure. But when he is healthy, he is having a better year. I agree there is no guarantee that any of those five will not burn out or get hurt. The same is true for Castillo who was hurt at the beginning of the year with shoulder soreness. They guessed wrong, but they thought that Walker Buehler would have been available in September.
Thus if Gonsolin, Urias, Anderson, May, and Kershaw are all healthy and available, and Andrew Heaney available for piggyback, would you spend three of the LAD top five prospects as Seattle did for Castillo? Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo, Levi Stoudt, and Andrew Moore are value wise commensurate with Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, and Miguel Vargas? With five pitchers I would take over Luis Castillo (this year), and a 6th who could piggyback with any of them, I am not losing that many top prospects.
To make that deal, you would have to believe that the Dodgers pitchers will not hold up, and that Castillo will, early sore shoulder and all.
Well, Seattle’s top 5 and our top 5 are very different. But, no I would not have traded 3 of our top 5 for him. Maybe one. All I said was he would have looked good in our rotation.
Initially I didn’t count May as an every 5th day starter through October. Not sure now. We still haven’t seen Kershaw, so, I don’t know how good he will be going forward. I wouldn’t say “uncharted” as Bluto did as that suggests management has no map, and I believe they do. I think Friedman is charting several moves ahead. That said, he didn’t chart Scherzer and Uriah’s tired arms last year did he.
I always want more better pitching.
Agree that Seattle’s top 5 are different than LAD’s top 5. I excluded Diego Cartaya for that very reason. For no reason other than it did provide MiLB values, I used the trade simulator for Marte, Arroyo, and Stoudt and tried to match it with three LAD prospects. They came out very close (72 vs 69)
I am not sure why, but Cincinnati wanted middle infielders in their return vs pitching. They have two other SS in their system rated as high, and both are further advanced than either Marte or Arroyo. Then again that is why Cincinnati is always trying to rebuild. The Dodgers were not trading Lux, and they do not have any SS in their organization to match Marte or Arroyo.
My guess is that Cincinnati insisted on Cartaya. Their top rated catcher is Logan Tanner at #13 Reds prospect and was a 2nd round pick in this year’s draft. Their only other catcher in the top 30 was Matheu Nelson at #25. He was drafted last year and was one of the most often mentioned mock draft picks for the Dodgers who they obviously passed on.
I do like Castillo, and he would have been a great safeguard for 2023. But for this year, I do not see him being better than any of the Dodgers top 3. I am more optimistic about May than you. I do see him being able to go every five days. I am also more optimistic about Kershaw. He says he does not need a rehab and will be ready to go next weekend against SD. Why should I disbelieve him?
But wouldn’t Kershaw/May be a fantastic playoff #4? You are absolutely right that AF is light years ahead of our knowledge of medicals, health status, tired arms, and options. This year the Dodgers are better equipped to handle a repeat of last year’s Max Scherzer.
If the Dodgers do stumble, it will not be because of starting pitching. It will be for the lack of a shutdown closer in a close game.
As long as the Dodgers do not have to face Eric Lauer, I like the Dodgers bats. There just is not a better team out there.
BTW, thanks for the conversation. This is akin to what I do at Starbucks with my baseball buddies that I miss now that they have moved away.
I appreciate the opportunity for conversation
As you know, my concerns are tired arms with our two best starters. Maybe there’s nothing to be concerned about, Gonsolin will have no problem doubling his regular starts and have plenty in the tank for 6 more QS in October. Urias knows what happened to him and will be prepared to finish the last 18 innings as well as he pitched the first 180 innings.
Kershaw? Yeah, sure. He should be fine. He has a simulated game on the 27th, and if he comes out of that ok, he’ll be activated for his next turn in the rotation. May. He looks like a beast. Easy Big Red. There’s a ways to go to the finish line.
Now, the bullpen. It’s going to have a different look soon. We are assuming Treinen and Graterol (0.944 WHIP) will come back 100%. They do, we should be fine. We may not need Kimbrel for any tight games we encounter post season.
The offense passes gas on occasion but I’m not at all concerned about it.
For those that did not get a chance to read the MiLB Summary, Michael Grove had another excellent start last night for OKC. 1 run in 6.0 IP, 1 BB, and 6 K’s. I have not been as high on Grove as others have been, but I would be happy to be wrong and find him in the rotation. That would mean that he beat out a lot of other pitching talent. I have always believed that he could best be utilized as a late inning reliever.
Wednesday schedule – All times are PT
That is three top 30 prospects starting tonight. Duran #19, Nastrini #12, and Heubeck #29.
Grove is really in a groove (ugh, apologies)
Hopefully it’s a turned corner.
There is a definite pre-cursor to a glut of MLB-ready pitching.
Not all of it at the same tier (Pepiot vs. Jackson for example), but there’s a lot of it very close to ready.
We still need to see Miller and Stone at AAA for more than a few starts. I think Nick Nastrini is a legit starter prospect at AA, but the same comment holds for him. I am not as convinced that Landon Knack is. Same with John Rooney, although he is LHP. Alec Gamboa is an enigma. I am still holding out. But every other pitcher on the Drillers roster (including Lael Lockhart LHP and Kyle Hurt) is on the reliever track. I could be wrong with both, but just like in Monk, I don’t think so.
I do not get overly excited about pitchers in A Ball or Rookie Ball, with one exception; Ben Harris who I think could be an excellent middle inning reliver, maybe even late inning. I see him as a RH version of Victor Gonzalez or a shorter Nick Anderson. Because he is being developed as a reliever, I would really like to see him pushed.
Of course there is also the possibility that he is a flash in the pan. But like above, I don’t think so. For many (not me), last year’s favorite reliever was Australian Cameron Gibbens, who was just released. In 6.1 IP, he allowed 19 runs on only 2 hits, but had 28 walks and 5 HBP.
late to comment. Up early to play golf. I think Drury will relax on his new team and help more and more as the season progresses.
I don’t think I ever said we needed to trade for pitching.
Soto would have been fun to watch.
Thompson doing everything he can to be a Dodger next year. He has struggled for a couple of years but before his back fracture, he was doing well for the Dodgers.
I haven’t checked on Seager one time. I check on Joc all the time.
I check on Seager all the time, and do not check on Joc.😍
As far as trade predictions, I am going to give Bluto an A on this one. I think he is the only person I read that said the Dodgers would not do anything significant, but would trade existing players for prospects. I do not consider C-Mart or Joey Gallo as significant, and he was right on after the Mitch White/Alex De Jesus trade for Nick Frasso and Moises Brito. It has been on my mind, but never to the keyboard for the last three weeks.
I was ecstatic when the Dodgers acquired Trayce. By no means is he an All Star, but a bench player with pop and defensive chops, I am all in. Yes to Trayce Thompson over Brandon Drury.
100% pure luck.