Right now, at this point of the season, I would have to say that Arizona is a better baseball team than are the LA Dodgers. After Dustin May dominated the Snakes on Thursday, the DBacks had their will against LAD pitching.
The Dodgers bested the DBacks in the 3-outcome approach categories: HR, K, BB. While Arizona outscored, outhit, more doubles, more triples, and they were 8-0 in SB/CS vs LAD at 0/0. The Dodgers are the worst team in MLB with stolen bases. They are tied with the Twins with the least number of SB (1), but the Dodgers have been caught 3 times, while the Twins only twice.
On Sunday, the DBacks put on a hitting clinic. They found a way to put the bat on the ball and hit it where it was pitched. How many inside out singles did they get. How many oppo doubles.
They ran wild on the Dodger pitchers. Neither Barnes nor Smith had a chance. There will be other teams that will exploit this LAD weakness. Late in the game, with the Dodgers current bullpen, it is going to be easier to score with a runner in scoring position.
Clayton Kershaw generally pitches poorly at Chase Stadium, so it was not unexpected that he allowed 4 runs in 6 innings. But the shellacking that Noah Syndergaard and Michael Grove took was disturbing. Syndergaard had one good outing, and now one very poor outing. I am not going to call this a bust signing because of his game against the DBacks. Grove? That is back to back poor outings.
Thor is scheduled to pitch against the Cubs at Dodger Stadium next Friday. Grove’s next scheduled start will be against the Cubs on Saturday. Gonsolin is still not scheduled to return to the rotation until early May. Ryan Pepiot is still not throwing.
Maybe Grove will take his next scheduled start, or maybe he will not. But the only other potential pitcher to take Grove’s spot would be Gavin Stone. Stone is scheduled for Tuesday???
There were bright spots from this dreary weekend. Freddie was outstanding this weekend. And JDM broke out the barrels this weekend.
- Freddie – 8-17, 2 doubles, 1 BB, 1 K
- JDM – 6-15, 4 doubles, 1 triple, 1 BB, 4 K
When I asked Badger if JDM was getting enough barrels, his response was:
Yep. He’s hitting over his weight now, so, that’s a good thing. Numbers rise and fall quickly this early in the year. And, he hasn’t faced particularly good pitching yet, so, long way to go.
Of course Badger is correct. It is only 10 games, and numbers seem to fluctuate up to about 100 ABs. But this past weekend, JDM faced the same pitchers the other Dodgers did. How did they do.
- Mookie – 3-16, 2 doubles, 2 BB, 3 K
- Smith – 2-9, 1 double, 3 BB, 1 K
- Muncy – 1-13, 5 BB, 5 K
- Outman – 4-13, 2 HR, 3BB, 4 K
- Vargas – 1-9, 2 BB, 3 K
- CT3 – 2-10, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K
- Peralta – 1-7, 1 double, 0 BB, 3 K
- Barnes – 0-6, 0 BB, 1 K
- Thompson – 1-4, 3 BB, 1 K
- Heyward – 1-4, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
- Rojas – 0-3, 1 BB, 0 K
That is 16-94 for the other 11 LAD batters or a .170 BA, with 23 BB and 26 K. If you exclude Outman from the list, the other ten would be 12-81 or a .148 BA, 20 BB and 22 K.
So if JDM was not hitting against particularly good pitching, and he hit what he did, what does that say for the other 10 or 11 batters identified above.
This was a lost weekend. We will have to wait and see if it was an aberration or a prelude of what is to come. I think what we may have learned is that the team is not as deep as we may have been led to believe.
Also maybe Arizona is better than many originally thought. They built their team around speed and defense. And you can try and convince me that SB are not important, but it is going to have to be very convincing. The Dodgers have no team speed, and their defense is suspect. So if their pitching is off, as it was this past weekend, the Dodgers could be on the wrong end of a box score for a lot of games.
However, not all is lost. I recall a 4 game series in 2016 at home against Miami, and they lost all four games. At the end of April, LAD was 12-13, and they ended up winning 91 games. In 2017 the Dodgers were 14-12 (104 wins). In 2018 they were 12-16 (92 wins). They were 20-12 in 2019, 16-11 in 2021, and 13-7 in 2022.
So a 5-5 start is not the end of the world. Does this team raise questions? Sure. But they still have 152 games to play. I still believe the team needs to wait until after the NYY series in June before they can determine if they are contenders or pretenders.
MiLB Summary – 04-09-2023
OKC Dodgers 6 – Las Vegas Aviators (Oakland) 5
OKC spotted the Aviators 5 runs and came all the way back with a 10 inning win. The Dodgers won 5 of the 6 games in Las Vegas, and are now 7-2 on the young season.
Dylan Covey one of the several AAAA starters on OKC, walked the first two batters he faced, got the next two batters out, and after getting the count to 1-2, Cody Thomas slugged his 4th HR of the season.
A single, stolen base, and single got the Aviators their 4th run. Dermis Garcia hit a 1-out HR in the 3rd, for a 5-0 lead after 3.
OKC got back in the game in the 4th. Devin Mann led off with a walk and moved to third on a Jahmai Jones double. Michael Reed was HBP to load the bases. After a K, Michael Busch hit a bases clearing double. Luke Williams continued his hot bat with a run scoring single.
With two outs in the 4th and a runner on base, Victor Gonzalez came in to relieve Covey and got the final out of the inning.
Hunter Feduccia hit his 2nd HR of the season to tie the score.
V-Gon retired the side in order in the 6th.
5 OKC relievers pitched 1.0 innings of hitless and scoreless innings.
- Brayan Hudson – 1.0 IP, 1 BB, 2 K
- Tayler Scott – 1.0 IP
- Justin Hagenman – 1.0 IP, 2 BB
- Nick Robertson – 1.0 IP, 2 K
- Wander Suero – 1.0 IP, 1 K
Robertson with the win and Suero got the save.
- Michael Busch went 3-4 with a double, walk, and 3 RBIs
- Hunter Feduccia went 2-4 with a HR
- Luke Williams went 1-3 with his team leading 10th RBI
Why is Ben DeLuzio with the AAA team and Andy Pages in AA. DeLuzio is 0-12 with 7 Ks.
Lansing Lugnuts (Oakland) 4 – Great Lakes Loons 2
For 8.0 innings, the Lugnuts pitchers held the Loons to no runs on 2 hits. The Loons put together 3 hits and a walk to score 2 in the 9th.
With Justin Wrobleski on the bump, Lansing scored 2 runs in the 1st inning. After a leadoff walk, Jack Winkler doubled him home, and then scored on a Max Muncy single. Those would be the only two runs Wrobleski would allow. He allowed 3 hits, with 1 BB, and 5 K.
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr relieved Wrobleski in the 5th. He surrendered a single in the 5th but no runs. In the 6th, Muncy led off with a walk and scored on a Daniel Susac double. Susac stole 3rd and scored on a sac fly. For his 2.0 IP, Ortiz-Mayr allowed the 2 runs on 2 hits, 2 BB, 3K.
Braydon Fisher, Jake Pilarski, and Julien Smith each pitched a 1.0 IP. No baserunners and 5 K.
Taylor Young opened the inning with a double. He was erased by a Damon Keith 14-3 DP. Dalton Rushing walked for the 3rd time, and scored Griffin Lockwood-Powell double. Lockwood-Powell scored on an Austin Gauthier double. That is as close as they would get. That pair of doubles were the first XBH the Loons had on the weekend.
- Griffin Lockwood-Powell – 2-4 with a double
- Dalton Rushing – 3 walks
For the 3-game series, the offense scored 5 runs on 13 hits. The pitchers allowed 12 runs on 19 hits.
We will slug and score 5+ runs a game, which we did in this series, and it will be good enough or it won’t. We are not built like the dbacks so we will not play the way they do.
It seems clear they were motivated and showed the rest of the league what it takes to beat the Dodgers.
We scored enough runs to win 3 of those games. The pitching lost this series.
One of the comebacks made to comments that the Dodgers were flailing was yeah but they are in first place. Well, that response no longer fits.
San Diego beat up on Atlanta while AZ beat up on the Dodgers.
Is Jarred Kelenic available? Not that they need outfielders but he is young and can run.
Bring up Stone.
10 hitters went 12-81 for a .148 BA with 20 BB and 22K. The team had 21 RBIs: JDM (5), Outman (4), Freeman (2), CT3 (2), Vargas (2), 6 others with 1. They were 8-31 (.258) WRISP, while Arizona was 19-49 (.388).
The Dodgers were looking for a walk and a mistake to hit a HR, while Arizona just hit and ran. The Dodgers had 16 more BB, and Arizona had 18 more hits. How many more RBIs come from hits vs walks? And when you can turn a walk or a single into a double, Arizona had the makings of a rout. However, the Dodgers did get 1 RBI on a bases loaded BB (Mookie).
Runs? The Dodgers scored 5 meaningless runs in the 8th and 9th after the games were for all practicality over…Down 9-3 after 4 and 11-3 after 5 on Sunday – 3 runs 8th and 9th. Down 12-6 after 7, scored 2 meaningless runs in 8th and 9th. Arizona led the Dodgers in 21 of the 36 innings, while LAD led in 13. Two innings they were tied.
Yes, the pitching was awful outside of Dustin May. You will get no argument from me. Arizona bullpen dominated LAD when they needed to, and the LAD bullpen was not very good at all. But when 10 of the 13 position players muscle out 12 hits in 81 AB in a 4-game series, you are not going to convince me that the LAD offense was any better than the pitching. Other than Freddie, JDM, and Outman.
Pavin Smith is called up to replace the injured Zach Davies and he gets 2 XBH and 3 RBI in his 1st 3 PA. Max Muncy has 4 hits in total, 1 XBH, and 2 RBI in 41 PA. Max Muncy is hurting the Dodgers hitting in the 4 or 5 spot. There is no other way to say it. You think he will turn it around, while JDM is getting his hits from not very good pitching, the same pitching that Max Muncy cannot hit. I am okay with that. As I said, there is nobody else in the organization that has the capability of doing what Muncy used to be able to do (not since 2021). But how can you justify Muncy hitting in the #4 or #5 hole? You want to keep him in the lineup, move him down to #8.
But if it keeps up, and if Luke Williams continues to hit at AAA, AF has to consider a change, especially if Muncy continues to suffer in the field. I know I read the excuses that the LAD infield was not quite ready, and that impacted Max. It didn’t impact anyone else, Dodgers, Arizona, or Colorado. I give credit to Max as he is not placing any blame on the field condition. Only LAD management and certain fans. And Badger I am not including you in this one, as you have been just as critical about his defense
We got our asses kicked. Man up and come back stronger.
Will Eddys Leonard make an appearance in 2023?
No.
Pages might.
Vivas won’t, nor Cartaya.
Busch will.
Feduccia might.
Full agreement with you about stolen bases, especially with the new rules. The 3 true outcome approach is based on the premise that it’s hard to get hits. But a walk/stolen base is just like a double. Yesterday it was mentioned that something like of the 20 walks the Dodgers had only 2 scored. Time will tell whether the Dodgers or the Diamondbacks approach reflects the future of baseball.
News From Internet:
Baseball America ($$$$$) looks at 50 prospects that MLB scouts cited.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/50-prospects-standing-out-to-scouts-in-2023-spring-training/
“The biggest takeawy from the calls (with scouts) is that the Dodgers have a fountain of a farm system that spits out talented prospects with the regularity and ferocity of old Faithful”
Martinus, Sam Munoz, Chris Campos, Wrobleski, Jordan Leasure and Liranzo ALL make the list.
Ben Clemens on steals for this season, Dodgers get a couple of mentions:
Jay Jaffe chat:
Steve: Best for this year…Grove, Dodd, or Elder?
Jay Jaffe: I was impressed with what I saw of Michael Grove last night, but I’ll go with Dodd, entirely based on Eric Longenhagen’s prospect grade. he’s a 50 FV via what Eric ran last week (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-starters-pistol-update-to-the-top-100-pr…) whereas the other two are 40+ guys.
Marko from Tropoja: IMO, Kershaw and Trout were surefire Hall of Famers on opening day of their tenth seasons. Who, if anyone, could be the next person on that list? Mookie (2023 is his tenth season)? Ohtani? Soto?
Jay Jaffe: Mookie is 15th in JAWS (56.2/50.4/53.3), between Gwynn and Evans, ahead of Suzuki, Winfield, and Guerrero already, so I’d call him sure-fire. Once Ohtani gets to 10 years (2027), he’ll have my vote if he’s still able to do both roles competently. Soto is much further off, with only two seasons of 5.0 WAR or better. Pretty normal for a guy who’s in his age-24 season.
Mr. Burrito: Jay — Love your work. Dumb question: The Dodgers are swapping out vets for rookies/reclamation projects off of one of the better regular season teams of all time. Is there any historical precedence for this? Has there been a team that won anything close to 111 games and, in the next season, tossed out two SPs and three regular position players? If so, how’d that go?
Jay Jaffe: I don’t think there’s any recent precedent for this at all. Seems like an A’s level teardown but I’d have to look more closely to see how much turnover there was… Maybe the 1998 Marlins — but the Marlins were much more aggressive, they weren’t keeping the likes of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Julio Urías around.
Farhandrew Zaidman: Michael Grove is just the new Ross Stripling/Mitch White? 4 average to plus pitches, swingman type guy?
Jay Jaffe: That seems about right. Not a high ceiling but useful, light workloads, trips to the bullpen and Triple-A while he still has options, would be more secure in another organization
Fangraphs has added a pair of hard-throwing prospects Dodgers to their list:
https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board?org=lad
Jake Pilarski – 13th (a 70 on Pilarski’s FB and SL!!!)
Juan Morillo – 33rd
Jay Jaffe on the Dodgers outfield:
“Van Scoyoc has worked with Heyward to lower his hands and move them further away from his body, reduce his movement once the pitcher starts his delivery, and find a more direct path to the ball. “We worked on his lower half, his legs, how he uses his back side, hand position, bat path, sequencing – all of it… getting [him] into a position where he’s more balanced, more athletic, holds the ground with his back leg,” Van Scoyoc told the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett recently.”
Ben Clemens Chat:
Guest: The dodgers drew 23 walks in their series vs the Diamondbacks and walked a single opponent. And they split the series. What a funny sport
Ben Clemens: Yeah, I watched a fair number of those games b/c the late windows over the weekend weren’t packed and I find both the Dodgers and DBacks really fun. I think that the Dodgers role players looked pretty dang good, which was the big worry around them this year. Those are the breaks of baseball, but I am not sure I expected Outman to look like ‘oh yeah this guy just seems like a good major league hitter’
Shane: Since 1950, 3 of the top 4 seasons by ERA- are the 2020-2022 Dodgers. Is this perhaps the greatest three season pitching stretch in baseball history (albeit with 2020 being abbreviated)? Do we appreciate how significant of an accomplishment this is and just how good this pitching staff has been?
Ben Clemens: It’s really remarkable. Their BABIP allowed was just insanity. They just turned batted balls into outs at an unprecedented rate. We’ll see if they can keep that going but it’s truly a dominant stretch
Baseball America ($$$$) looks at the most talented MILB teams:
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/the-best-teams-in-the-minors-on-opening-day-2023/
OKC makes the list
Don Szymborski Chat:
Farhandrew Zaidman: True or False: Dustin May is unhittable when he’s landing his breaking ball for strikes.
Dan Szymborski: True
JJ: Did you take any regular season wins over/under this year?
Dan Szymborski: Arizona over, Dodgers under
Arizona over, Dodgers under. Feels like a good position to take after 10 games.
“But when 10 of the 13 position players muscle out 12 hits in 81 AB in a 4-game series, you are not going to convince me that the LAD offense was any better than the pitching.”
Well, put that way, yeah, it sucks. But what if all those 12 hits were extra base hits with runners on…. They weren’t of course, maybe all were bases empty singles, but, I believe all motion must be defined relative to a frame of reference. I have learned over the past few years it’s not about batting average, in the Dodgers organization it’s about on base plus slugging.
I say again, pitching lost this last series.
Moving forward. One at a time against the gints.
I think everybody is enjoying Outman and are looking forward to Vargas getting it going. New blood. I want more. I know, I know. The Dodgers won 111 games last year and it’s only 9 games into the season. It’s only a matter of time for Muncy and Taylor to be their old selves. Guess what–they are playing old now.
Lux would be nice to have. I miss him.
Max back at #4, but maybe tonight’s the night. Against Logan Webb:
Max – 6-20, 1 dbl, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K, .300/.440/.650/1.050
Freddie – 10-20, 1 dbl, 1 HR,4 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K, .500/.524/.700/1.224
Smith – 4-17, 3 dbl, 4 BB, 4 K, .235/.381/.412/.793
Mookie – 5-16, 2 dbl, 1 BB, 1 K, .313/.353/.438/.790
CT3 – 5-15, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 0 BB, 6 K, .333/.333/.533/.867
Peralta – 3-11, 2 dbl, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 4 K, .273/.385/.455/.839
JDM – 0-2, 1 K
The Dodgers have hit Logan Webb fairly well – 10 GS, 50.2 IP, 4.44 ERA, 1.283 WHIP, 15 BB, 40 K. Webb has struggled thus far in 2023. Can the Dodgers turn it around against SFG? The Giants do have 5 SB and 1 CS.
The Dodgers get the lefty, Alex Wood on Tuesday, and Alex Cobb (RHP) on Wednesday.
Muncy quiets his detractors. For a couple of days.
I look forward to your next Muncy comment in 3 days, Fred. 😎