Friday (January 13) marks the date that arbitration figures need to be submitted by both the players and the teams if they cannot come to an agreement on a contract for 2023. The Dodgers have ten such players who are eligible for arbitration.
- Julio Urías (arb #4 – Super Two)
- Walker Buehler (arb #3 – Super Two)
- Caleb Ferguson (arb #2)
- Yency Almonte (arb #1)
- Will Smith (arb #1)
- Dustin May (arb #1)
- Trayce Thompson (arb #1)
- Brusdar Graterol (arb #1)
- Tony Gonsolin (arb #1 – Super Two)
- Evan Phillips (arb #1 – Super Two)
The Dodgers have four players who have reached Super Two status. As a reminder, here is the definition of Super Two (per MLB):
Players typically must accrue three years of Major League service time — with one year of service time equaling 172 days on the 26-man roster or the Major League injured list — to become eligible for salary arbitration. Super Two is a designation that allows a select group of players to become eligible for arbitration before reaching three years of service time.
To qualify for the Super Two designation, players must rank in the top 22 percent, in terms of service time, among those who have amassed between two and three years in the Majors. The specific cutoff date varies on a year-to-year basis.
Essentially, the players who have been designated with a Super Two status have four years of arbitration instead of three. It has no affect on their free agency status, only allowing the player to reach arbitration earlier. Pre-arbitration salaries are simply salaries that teams force onto the players, generally just at (year 1) or just above (years 2 and 3) MLB minimum. Arbitration allows the player a larger runway for a better salary earlier than “normal”.
For 2023, the Super Two cutoff was 2.128 years. The Dodgers had two players meet that threshold…Tony Gonsolin (2.152 years) and Evan Phillips (2.136).
Since Andrew Friedman came to the Dodgers in October 2014, the Dodgers have been what is referred to as a “file and trial” participant in arbitration. In other words, the Dodgers will do everything in their power to make sure that they do not go to arbitration with any of their players. If they cannot agree on a contract, the Dodgers will file, and if they do, they will go to trial.
For the Dodgers during the AF era, both the team and players have been extremely successful with negotiating contracts prior to needing to go to arbitration. Only 6 out of 60 arbitration eligible LAD players have had to exchange salary figures during the AF era. The last two players that have gone to actual arbitration were in 2020. Joc lost his arbitration case receiving the LAD submission of $7.75MM instead of Joc’s $9.5MM. However, Pedro Baez won his case earning $4MM rather than the Dodgers submission of $3.5MM. Those were the first two Dodgers to reach arbitration since LHRP Joe Beimel in 2007. The Dodgers won that arbitration hearing.
While the Dodgers will cease negotiating single year contracts after the salary exchange, they will consider multi-year deals. Four LAD arbitration eligible players have signed multi-year deals prior to arbitration.
- Max Muncy signed a $26MM three year deal, covering all three of his arbitration years.
- Chris Taylor signed a two year $13.4MM contract taking him out of his final two years of arbitration.
- Walker Buehler signed a 2-year $8MM contract eliminating his first two years of arbitration.
- Austin Barnes signed a 2-year $4.3MM deal eliminating his final two years of arbitration.
The likelihood of the Dodgers staying under the CBT threshold in 2023 is bleak, and it is the arbitration eligible players that will undoubtedly take them over. I have long been an advocate of Matt Swartz and his arbitration figures, which are reported on MLBTR. That is the figure I used in my current AAV projection, and that projection keeps the Dodgers slightly below the threshold. They are all a guess, and Eric Stephen at True Blue LA did his own evaluation. If the salaries approach more of Stephen’s projection, the Dodgers will be over the CBT threshold.
Do the Dodgers just bite the bullet and negotiate multi year extensions with some of the players? Primarily, do they look to extend Julio Urías and Will Smith? I would not expect the Dodgers to negotiate any multi-year deals for any of the relievers (Ferguson, Almonte, Graterol, and Phillips). Maybe the first two years for Gonsolin, like they did for Buehler.
Will AF/BG trade any of the arbitration eligible players?
Regardless, look for the Dodgers to consummate multiple contracts with their arbitration eligible players this week. The 2023 AAV will become a lot more in focus by Friday.
Dodgers are going to go over the CBT unless they can unload Taylor or Muncy. So they might as well sign Jose Iglesias and Andrew McCutchen.
Unless they can trade Bauer and get rid of some of his salary. Which one would you be more willing to part with, Muncy or Taylor?
Bauer put us over, right?
Taylor says he’s been working out to get his mojo back. I think he can cut down on his strikeouts if he just hits the ball more often. I predict Muncy will be back to OPSn at or near .800. All he has to do is add 50 points to his batting average and 50 points to his OBP. If we trade Freddie Freeman and put Muncy back at first, we can get under the cap.
Early predictions are all over the map. As is I say 92 wins and a playoff berth.
…if he hits the ball more often. I like it.
Who might be the better 3rd baseman defensively between Vargas and Devers?
Over 100 wins. NLCS.
Twins have DFA’d Kyle Garlick to make room for Carlos Correa. Interestingly, the Twins doctors have also raised concerns over Correa’s ankle, but the Twins believe they have enough of a safeguard to roll the dice.
Twins mentioned to have contacted Dodgers about a Bauer trade. They could probably buy him for $2MM or if Dodgers added a top 30 prospect, a higher amount.
Let the negotiations begin!
Missing DH – JD Martinez
What’s the last day AF can trade Bauer without having to just release him?
Some time on Friday.
Hanser Alberto has signed a MiLB contract with Chicago White Sox.
Apparently the Dodgers are not convinced that Gavin Lux is the 2023 LAD shortstop. Per multiple sources, the Dodgers are deep in talks with Miami for SS Miguel Rojas. What other players are involved (Dodgers or Marlins) have not been linked. No deal is imminent.
one report says it’s for Jacob Amaya
Can’t Amaya do what Rojas does?
Deal is done. Miguel Rojas is a proven ML SS. He is not one of the elite 4. He is not Willy Adames. One side of me sees Rojas as a bridge to Amed Rosario next year. Jacob Amaya has been one of my favorite LAD players since drafted. But to win this year, the Dodgers got one of the GG finalists in 2023. Maybe Amaya gets there, but Rojas has been there. 10 Oust Above Average, 15 Defensive Runs Saved, and 4.9 UZR. Run prevention is important to me, and Rojas has been one of the best.
Those numbers are very nice but now we need to find out if Rojas is our shortstop or a bench piece.
My preference would be Rojas at ss, Lux at 2b, Max at 3b, Vargas in LF.
That one trade has cleaned up the defensive lineup. Outman and Thompson as the platoon CF.
Muncy was considered a plus defender at 3B last year, even though that was based on the shift. Legit? I guess we will find out this year. At least we will not have to worry about his lack of range at 2B. It is always easiest to hide a bat first player hiding in LF. Vargas can focus on hitting. If he hits, the Dodgers chances are better.
Smith, Lux, Rojas, and Outman/Thompson in CF. A much better up the middle.
At least this puts a stop to moving Lux to SS. I think he be a really good 2b, and I’m sure Rojas will be good for him to learn from.
Now, does this mean Muncy to 3b? Then what about Vargas? 3b/LF?
Dustin Nosler’s solution to stay under the threshold is kinda fun:
To MIA: OF Bryan Reynolds, RHP Blake Treinen, RHP Landon Knack, C Samuel Escudero, Competitive Balance Round B draft pick
To PIT: 2B Michael Busch, RHP Max Meyer, RHP Gavin Stone
To LA: LHP Trevor Rogers, Competitive Balance Round A draft pick
Once the trade is made official, we’ll need to hear from AF as to whether they brought Rojas in as the every day shortstop or as a backup ss/2b/3b.
With JDM and Rojas on the roster, they’ll both be great mentors for Vargas. JD was born in Miami but is of Cuban heritage (as is Vargas) and Rojas is Venezuelan. They’re both known to be great in the clubhouse and are looked to as leaders by the teams they’ve been on.
Well, somebody has to hit 9th. He’s $5 million. Can we afford him? I still think Amaya can do what he does.
Former Heisman Trophy winning USC Running Back, Charles White has passed at 64. I had the pleasure of speaking to him while he was a student at USC.
RIP Charles White 👃
I’m sure old Notre Dame fans remember him.
Dodgers definitely going to have to trade Taylor and/or Muncy to get under the CBT. Seems like the Dodgers gave up a lot for one year of Rojas. I would have rather they had signed Jose Iglesias and kept Amaya.