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MLB Arbitration

Friday (January 13) marks the date that arbitration figures need to be submitted by both the players and the teams if they cannot come to an agreement on a contract for 2023.  The Dodgers have ten such players who are eligible for arbitration.

  • Julio Urías (arb #4 – Super Two)
  • Walker Buehler (arb #3 – Super Two)
  • Caleb Ferguson (arb #2)
  • Yency Almonte (arb #1)
  • Will Smith (arb #1)
  • Dustin May (arb #1)
  • Trayce Thompson (arb #1)
  • Brusdar Graterol (arb #1)
  • Tony Gonsolin (arb #1 – Super Two)
  • Evan Phillips (arb #1 – Super Two)

The Dodgers have four players who have reached Super Two status.  As a reminder, here is the definition of Super Two (per MLB):

Players typically must accrue three years of Major League service time — with one year of service time equaling 172 days on the 26-man roster or the Major League injured list — to become eligible for salary arbitration. Super Two is a designation that allows a select group of players to become eligible for arbitration before reaching three years of service time. 

To qualify for the Super Two designation, players must rank in the top 22 percent, in terms of service time, among those who have amassed between two and three years in the Majors. The specific cutoff date varies on a year-to-year basis.

Essentially, the players who have been designated with a Super Two status have four years of arbitration instead of three. It has no affect on their free agency status, only allowing the player to reach arbitration earlier.  Pre-arbitration salaries are simply salaries that teams force onto the players, generally just at (year 1) or just above (years 2 and 3) MLB minimum.  Arbitration allows the player a larger runway for a better salary earlier than “normal”.

For 2023, the Super Two cutoff was 2.128 years.  The Dodgers had two players meet that threshold…Tony Gonsolin (2.152 years) and Evan Phillips (2.136).

Since Andrew Friedman came to the Dodgers in October 2014, the Dodgers have been what is referred to as a “file and trial” participant in arbitration.  In other words, the Dodgers will do everything in their power to make sure that they do not go to arbitration with any of their players.  If they cannot agree on a contract, the Dodgers will file, and if they do, they will go to trial.

For the Dodgers during the AF era, both the team and players have been extremely successful with negotiating contracts prior to needing to go to arbitration.  Only 6 out of 60 arbitration eligible LAD players have had to exchange salary figures during the AF era.  The last two players that have gone to actual arbitration were in 2020.  Joc lost his arbitration case receiving the LAD submission of $7.75MM instead of Joc’s $9.5MM. However, Pedro Baez won his case earning $4MM rather than the Dodgers submission of $3.5MM.  Those were the first two Dodgers to reach arbitration since LHRP Joe Beimel in 2007.  The Dodgers won that arbitration hearing.

While the Dodgers will cease negotiating single year contracts after the salary exchange, they will consider multi-year deals.  Four LAD arbitration eligible players have signed multi-year deals prior to arbitration.

  • Max Muncy signed a $26MM three year deal, covering all three of his arbitration years.
  • Chris Taylor signed a two year $13.4MM contract taking him out of his final two years of arbitration.
  • Walker Buehler signed a 2-year $8MM contract eliminating his first two years of arbitration.
  • Austin Barnes signed a 2-year $4.3MM deal eliminating his final two years of arbitration.

The likelihood of the Dodgers staying under the CBT threshold in 2023 is bleak, and it is the arbitration eligible players that will undoubtedly take them over.  I have long been an advocate of Matt Swartz and his arbitration figures, which are reported on MLBTR.  That is the figure I used in my current AAV projection, and that projection keeps the Dodgers slightly below the threshold.  They are all a guess, and Eric Stephen at True Blue LA did his own evaluation.  If the salaries approach more of Stephen’s projection, the Dodgers will be over the CBT threshold.

Do the Dodgers just bite the bullet and negotiate multi year extensions with some of the players?  Primarily, do they look to extend Julio Urías and Will Smith?  I would not expect the Dodgers to negotiate any multi-year deals for any of the relievers (Ferguson, Almonte, Graterol, and Phillips).  Maybe the first two years for Gonsolin, like they did for Buehler.

Will AF/BG trade any of the arbitration eligible players?

Regardless, look for the Dodgers to consummate multiple contracts with their arbitration eligible players this week.  The 2023 AAV will become a lot more in focus by Friday.

 

 

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OhioDodger

Dodgers are going to go over the CBT unless they can unload Taylor or Muncy. So they might as well sign Jose Iglesias and Andrew McCutchen.

Dave

Unless they can trade Bauer and get rid of some of his salary. Which one would you be more willing to part with, Muncy or Taylor?

Badger

Bauer put us over, right?

Taylor says he’s been working out to get his mojo back. I think he can cut down on his strikeouts if he just hits the ball more often. I predict Muncy will be back to OPSn at or near .800. All he has to do is add 50 points to his batting average and 50 points to his OBP. If we trade Freddie Freeman and put Muncy back at first, we can get under the cap.

Bauer. Curses!

Early predictions are all over the map. As is I say 92 wins and a playoff berth.

Last edited 20 days ago by Badger
Bumsrap

…if he hits the ball more often. I like it.

Who might be the better 3rd baseman defensively between Vargas and Devers?

Bluto

Over 100 wins. NLCS.

OhioDodger

Taylor.

Bumsrap

Twins mentioned to have contacted Dodgers about a Bauer trade. They could probably buy him for $2MM or if Dodgers added a top 30 prospect, a higher amount.

Oldbear48

Let the negotiations begin!

Dionysus

C–Smith
1B–Freeman
2B–Muncy
SS–Lux
3B–Vargas
LF–Taylor/[Busch]
CF–Outman/Trayce
RF–Betts

Singing the Blue

What’s the last day AF can trade Bauer without having to just release him?

Bobby

one report says it’s for Jacob Amaya

Badger

Can’t Amaya do what Rojas does?

Singing the Blue

Those numbers are very nice but now we need to find out if Rojas is our shortstop or a bench piece.

My preference would be Rojas at ss, Lux at 2b, Max at 3b, Vargas in LF.

Dionysus

Yep

Bobby

At least this puts a stop to moving Lux to SS. I think he be a really good 2b, and I’m sure Rojas will be good for him to learn from.

Now, does this mean Muncy to 3b? Then what about Vargas? 3b/LF?

Bluto

Dustin Nosler’s solution to stay under the threshold is kinda fun:

Proposal
To MIA: OF Bryan Reynolds, RHP Blake Treinen, RHP Landon Knack, C Samuel Escudero, Competitive Balance Round B draft pick
To PIT: 2B Michael Busch, RHP Max Meyer, RHP Gavin Stone
To LA: LHP Trevor Rogers, Competitive Balance Round A draft pick

Singing the Blue

Once the trade is made official, we’ll need to hear from AF as to whether they brought Rojas in as the every day shortstop or as a backup ss/2b/3b.

With JDM and Rojas on the roster, they’ll both be great mentors for Vargas. JD was born in Miami but is of Cuban heritage (as is Vargas) and Rojas is Venezuelan. They’re both known to be great in the clubhouse and are looked to as leaders by the teams they’ve been on.

Badger

Well, somebody has to hit 9th. He’s $5 million. Can we afford him? I still think Amaya can do what he does.

Bumsrap

I’m sure old Notre Dame fans remember him.

OhioDodger

Dodgers definitely going to have to trade Taylor and/or Muncy to get under the CBT. Seems like the Dodgers gave up a lot for one year of Rojas. I would have rather they had signed Jose Iglesias and kept Amaya.

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