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Now What

Fred Vogel asked the question about Gavin Lux at SS…”AF has to have a better option up his sleeve. Right??”

Two comments.  1. IMO, highly unlikely, and 2. If you listen to what Kasten, AF, and BG have been saying, you might come to understand that this was always the plan.  If they could not re-sign Trea Turner (and there was no chance of that), then SS belonged to Gavin Lux, and they were more than confident that he could handle the job.

Contrary to what many of the early predictions were for LAD SS, they were never in on any of the 4 elite SS.  Do they have a backup?  Is José Iglesias, Elvis Andrus, or Didi Gregorius a better option?  I cannot say that they are a better option.  But I cannot definitively say that one of them will not become a LAD.

Of course the Dodgers could trade for a SS.  Willy Adames?  Amed Rosario?  Both Milwaukee and Cleveland have said that neither are available.  Of course they would be willing to trade if AF/BG would overpay. JP Crawford?  Tim Anderson?  Neither are going to be dealt. I think the best they could do is NYY’s IKF, Isiah Kiner-Falefa.  Masyn Winn or Jordan Westburg or other MiLB prospect that is not in the can’t miss category?  Why not stick with Gavin Lux than an unknown.

My biggest hesitation with Gavin Lux at SS is that he will not be the 2B where he could excel.  He is nothing special, dare I say merely average, as a SS.  I hope he proves me wrong, because I really do like Lux.

I do have a tendency to listen to what the Dodgers’ execs say. Besides Lux is going to be the SS unless something drops into their laps, the other consistent comment is that the Dodgers are looking for a LH hitting CF.  I truly believe they were in on Kevin Kiermaier, but like most players it seems, he wanted to stay back east.  I like Andrew Benintendi, but he is more of a LF who can play once a week in CF IF HE MUST.  Plus the Dodgers were not going 5 years for a FA.

The Dodgers did sign absolutely no-risk Jason Heyward, who does believe in the “Dodger Magic”, and is working out every day at Dodger Stadium.  But even I cannot find a reason to believe that Heyward is going to be the LAD CF in 2023.  Names that Ken Rosenthal as heard mentioned as possibilities include Bryan Reynolds (Pirates), Dylan Carlson (Cardinals), Jarred Kelenic (Mariners), and Alek Thomas (DBacks).

I do not believe that Ben Cherington is going to let Bryan Reynolds back him into a corner and force a trade of Bryan Reynolds.  I do believe that Reynolds will be traded, but not now, and not under the “demand for trade” mantra. I have no idea why Dylan Carlson would be available.  He is 24 with 2+ years of MLB experience, and the Cardinals traded Harrison Bader to keep Carlson in CF for St. Louis.  He is still not arbitration eligible.  He is younger than Bryan Reynolds.  He can’t hit with him, but he is a much better defensive CF.  I like Carlson because I did see him play some in HS, as he went to HS at the baseball powerhouse AKA Elk Grove High School.  There are currently 6 players in MLB who matriculated from Elk Grove:

  • Dylan Carlson (Cardinals)
  • JD Davis (Giants)
  • Derek Hill (Nationals)
  • Nick Madrigal (Cubs)
  • Rowdy Tellez (Brewers)
  • Dom Nuñez (FA – Last played for Colorado in 2022)

Perhaps the most famous baseball alum is Buck Martinez.

Dylan’s father, Jeff Carlson, was a long-time coach for Elk Grove HS.  Below is an article on Jeff.

http://www.egcitizen.com/sports/elk-grove-baseball-s-carlson-retires/article_52b9fdf0-8536-11e8-afa1-3ff1bd11f58e.html

I had already floated the idea of Jarred Kelenic, and for the most part it was not well received.  I still like Kelenic, and believe that a change in scenery will be good for him.  He could also fall faster than Jeren Kendall.  I also would be happy with Alek Thomas if AF/BG and Mike Hazen can forget that they are NL West competitors and are willing to construct a deal that can help both teams.  Are any of these game changers or place holders until the Dodgers can draft and develop a CF of their own.

Shelby Miller and Noah Syndergaard also bought into the “Dodger Magic” and have agreed to 1 year deals to work with the pitching Yoda himself, Mark Prior.

That brings me to the confusion.  Yesterday, the Dodgers came to terms with DH JD Martinez.  Many of us were disappointed when AF did not trade JDM in 2017.  I remember Dodgerrick was a huge proponent of the Dodgers acquiring JDM and did so early in the year.  Instead, Arizona traded 3 questionable lottery tickets for JDM at the 2017 trade deadline: Jose King , Sergio Alcántara and Dawel Lugo.  Lugo is out of baseball,  Alcántara is a reserve’s reserve currently a FA, and King is still in the Detroit MiLB system.

I have no problem that JDM is a Dodger.  I am just not convinced he is a better option than Justin Turner.

  • JDM 2022 – .274/.341/.448/.790 – 117 OPS+, 1.1bWAR
  • JT 2022 – .278/.350/.438/.788 – 116 OPS+, 2.0 bWAR

The biggest difference is that while JDM is respectable against RHP, he still annihilates LHP.  SDP has 2 projected LHSP and has 4 LHRP scheduled for the bullpen.  SFG has two projected LHSP, but only 2 LHRP.

But the biggest head scratcher for me is that if Trevor Bauer’s suspension is overturned and he is forced onto the Dodgers roster, the Dodgers will in fact be over the CBT threshold.  Syndergaard put them at the cusp of exceeding the threshold.  Maybe they could have stayed under with some manipulation, but JDM erases any doubts now.  They are currently at $209MM, or $24 MM below the CBT.  Bauer has an AAV of $34MM and that will put them $10MM over.

I honestly cannot figure out where the Dodgers are headed.  At first it seemed that as far removed from FA as they appeared, that they believed that Bauer was going to be reinstated for at least 2023.  After the JDM acquisition, they either believe that Bauer will not win his arbitration, or that they just do not care.

What is next?  There seems to be a lot of noise for a CF trade (which I believe), and perhaps a FA acquisition of Seth Lugo, who wants to be stretched out as a SP.  Do the Dodgers believe he can be a SP under the tutelage of Mark Prior?  We are just under 2 months remaining before pitchers and catchers reports.   Plenty of time to make changes.  Which members of the 40 man will be eliminated to make room?  Is a trade on the horizon?

 

Mark Prior – LAD Pitching Yoda

 

 

 

 

 

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Bumsrap

Giants need an upgrade at first.

Dodgers somewhat unsettled at SS.

Crawford for Muncy?

Kicks the SS position down the road a year and keeps Lux at 2nd. Amaya at SS in 2024?

Trading Taylor would more than pay for Martinez.

All this opens the door for Vargas to become the 3rd baseman.

Badger

Muncy OPSn .800 in SF? I of course encourage the thought process Bum, but I look forward to Muncy returning to 30 home runs and a 135 OPS+ here. I did however believe it would be from DH and the occasional start, not every day at 3rd.

I had the same question about the cap business. Is it possible there will be some sort of gentleman’s agreement between MLB and the Dodgers over this Bauer malfeasance? Many, including me, believe Manfred f’d this up with his heavy handed approach. . Can the Dodgers claim damages?

Last edited 1 month ago by Badger
Bumsrap

For my personal enjoyment, I would like to see Muncy and Bumgarner on the Giants together.

Bumsrap

He grew up a Giant fan and certainly wants to stay there but you have to admit that would be a juicy trade. Go fetch it out of the bay or whatever Muncy supposedly said would be on the front page of the Sports Section in the SF newspapers.

Last edited 1 month ago by Bumsrap
OhioDodger

Trade Muncy and Taylor. $28M off the books. Play the kids. Get Ohtani next year.

Oldbear48

Simple, but not probable. Taylor has three more years at 15 per. Not many teams willing to pay that for a guy who is nothing more than a super sub and who strikes out way too much.

OhioDodger

Dreaming is free.

Oldbear48

Yeah, but sometimes it screws up ones common sense.

Sam Oyed

If Bauer is reinstated I suspect the Dodgers will trade him along with cash considerations as well as 1 or more players. I would not be surprised if AF has already talked to clubs about thus option.

Hey, if the Padres are looking for pitching and the Dodgers need a shortstop/ CF I can think of one possible trade ( not that I’d ever do it).

Singing the Blue

I had the same thought, Sam. I wouldn’t be surprised if Andrew has a trade all worked out for Bauer already.

As far as your trade? I’d do it in a heartbeat.

OhioDodger

And what teams do you think would be interested in Bauer? If the Dodgers don’t play him and let him go, a team could get him for league minimum. If he is reinstated, the Dodgers should play him.

Sam Oyed

The Dodgers don’t have to DFA. They may want to get rid of him but they don’t have to. Meanwhile, teams on the fringe of the playoff that could use some pitching to help get them over the hump. A team like the Orioles or White Sox for example.

Singing the Blue

I’d rather keep him than trade him, but if AF insists on getting rid of him, I bet Preller would take him. And I bet Machado would be the first one to tell him to do it. He and Bauer have a thing going but it’s based on mutual respect.

Other teams who might be interested: Red Sox, Phillies, Angels, Twins, Rangers.

It all amounts to how they would go about explaining the charges against him and if Bauer could show he was set up.

Red Sox and Phillies fans are so raunchy, they might not care.

Is it Bluto who’s a Sox fan? If that “raunchy” description doesn’t apply to you, I apologize.

Bumsrap

And so is Jeff

dodgerpatch

Correct.

The Dodgers are, what? … 23 million under the CBT? Bauer is owed 32.

The Dodgers pick up the tab for 22 million, another team, say the Rangers, who still need SP and are spending like they’re contenders, could pick up a proven durable starting pitcher on a 1 year deal for 10 million.

The Dodgers get rid of a headache and stay under the cap. A contender gets Bauer for 10 million on short deal. He was the 2020 Cy Young winner. That would have to be enticing to somebody.

Some prospects might have to change hands, but this makes sense.

Last edited 1 month ago by dodgerpatch
Oldbear48

They signed Bradley Zimmer to a minor league deal left handed defense first center fielder. Also MLBTR reports the Dodgers are hot after Lugo.

Badger

Must be a Skyhack project. Guy can’t hit a lick.

I’d consider it Sam.

Last edited 1 month ago by Badger
Bumsrap

He probably won’t be playing for a championship but otherwise not a bad place to land and he got good money.

Oldbear48

Just read about it, but it was pretty much a foregone conclusion once they signed JD Martinez.

Bumsrap

Gone are Joc, Cody, JT, Cory, Kenley, AJ Ellis, Trea,

Who is next?

Singing the Blue

How could I forget? After all, that was Andy’s team.
You certainly aren’t raunchy, Jeff, but it seems to me that Philly or Boston would be an ideal landing spot for Bauer. As would SD.

Bumsrap

Too late.

Badger

Lugo a starter? As in a 3 inning Opener starter maybe? The last time he was a real starter, 5 years ago, he logged 101 innings. He did log 36 in the 60 game season, so, I guess that counts. Reliever, sure. Starter?

Singing the Blue

Looks like 2/15 with an opt out. Not exactly a Verlander-like bidding war.

Badger

Not needed here.

So, I think the question remains – now what?

Bluto

Rosenthal from the Athletic:

How is it possible Turner signed a contract for more than twice as much as Martinez, considering both offer minimal defensive value at this stage of their respective careers?

Martinez’s agent, Scott Boras, pointed to the slugger’s relationship with his former Red Sox teammate, Mookie Betts, and Dodgers hitting instructor Robert Van Scoyoc, who helped Martinez revamp his swing after the 2013 season.

Badger

Maybe they figure Justin will double JD’s WAR output again.

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