I have written that I believe that the one time AF put emotion in front of logic and overreacted to the market was when he signed Trevor Bauer. He saw what NYM and SDP were doing at the time, and IMO, he believed he needed to respond. Both NYM and SDP were in on Bauer, and AF decided to jump head first into the deep end. Bad decision, and I said that at the time, not post suspension.
Have teams responded emotionally vs logically the last couple of years?
Last year Scott Boras entered the fray and got Texas to bid against themselves for both Corey Seager and Marcus Semien for a cool $500MM. For 2022-2023, Boras is representing 2 of the elite 4 FA SS (Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts) and one of the top 3 pitchers (Carlos Rodón).
I continue to read from baseball journalists and bloggers, and hear from MLB.com TV personalities, how bad the contracts for Xander Bogaerts (Padres) and Carlos Correa (Giants) are. In the short term, there is justification for Correa’s deal. $27MM AAV for an elite SS is not out of line. He will be entering his age 28 season. However, he is 6’4” with a history of injuries, and he is getting a 13 year deal for $350MM with full no-trade provisions??? That cannot end well, starting about half way through the contract.
Scott Boras has done it again. He got the Padres bidding on Bogaerts by themselves, and then got the Giants to bid for Correa by themselves. There is no possible scenario that Bogie was going to get anywhere near $280MM. The closest reported bidding team was Boston, and they were under $200MM. And the Padres did not need another SS. They do need more starting pitching, a 1B, a LF, and a catching upgrade. How far could that $280MM gone to fill those needs?
Correa’s market was plateauing at a level not acceptable to Boras. He could not get anyone to believe that LAD was remotely interested in Correa. I have to believe some LAD insider/employee was charged with the task of contacting Ken Rosenthal and advise him the Dodgers were not at all interested in Correa, and used the fans as a scapegoat.
So Boras pivots and does what he does best. He floats an idea that NYM are in on Correa, and within 36 hours the Giants overpay for one of his clients. Does anyone truly believe that NYM was the least bit interested in Carlos Correa for $250MM much less $350MM? The Twins? I think they got to $280MM for 10 years that was astronomically higher than anything they have ever offered a FA.
I think Boras had Farhan bidding against Pete Putila (SF GM). Really, who else was anywhere close to what SF decided Correa’s market was? The same is true for the Padres and Bogaerts.
Then yesterday, Boras got his 3rd high level client, Carlos Rodón, signed by NYY. His contract was for 6 years and $162MM. I am speculating that Boras wanted 6 years all along (instead of his expected 5), so they floated the concept they were looking at 7 years. I do think they had to “settle” for $27MM AAV. I always thought they were looking at $30MM. But even Boras could not conjure up another interested team that could meet their contract demands. Nevertheless, Rodón got a great payday by betting on himself. He went from 1 year at $3MM (2021), to two years and $44MM with an opt out in 2022 (which he exercised), to six years and $162MM (2023) with a no trade provision. Two years ago, Rodón was near non-tendered, and now he has a guaranteed $162MM contract in the organization he was looking for.
There is no doubt in my mind that AF would never sign Carlos Correa for 13 years $350MM, Xander Bogaerts for 11 years $280MM, or Carlos Rodón for 6 years $162MM. Is it any wonder that AF has never signed a Scott Boras client?
Now we can add Carlos Rodón to the above list.
What will Boras be paid for this coming year as of now?
Not sure what agents get anymore, but it would be upwards of 10%
If the Dodgers want to look ahead to the next big thing out of Japan, Munetaka Murakami will be posted after the 2026 season. He will be coming off of his age 25 season. In 4 years in the JPL he has hit 160 homers. He hit 56 last year breaking Sadaharu Oh’s record for a Japanese born player. Dodgers traded with Oakland for infielder, Yonny Hernandez. Plays 3 positions. Can’t hit a lick, but walks a lot and rarely strikes out. I am not impressed.
Feels like maybe the collusion definition needs to be revisited again. But also, certain teams must be able to afford it. As long as fans are willing to pay, this is going to happen, especially of course in large markets. There appears to be no cure for our addiction.
Real baseball is still over 3 months out. These financial fisticuffs involving wealthy teams are of course exciting for the fans involved, but for most teams, including ours this year, it’s just one wtf day after another. Bora$$ feels to me like a greasy example of what’s wrong, but he’s very good at what he does and what he does is legal, so, until things change, this is MLB.
As much as I appreciate and admire Badger’s POV on this, it couldn’t be more diametrically opposed to mine!
That’s what makes this place great.
I agree. But I don’t understand how you can think top heavy is good for the game. Maybe you can help me understand that. I think the other sports, all of them, have a better cap system, which allows for competitive balance. I believe in balance.
I believe that players should make their maximum.
Caps, no matter how structured, stop this from happening.
Most of the money will go to the best players, so in a capped league that just lessens how much can go to everyone else.
It sure hasn’t stopped maximums in the NFL and the NBA.
What I’m also in favor of is teams being able to terminate contracts. A few years guaranteed, a significant signing bonus, then you gotta show you’re worth it. 13 years guaranteed sounds insane to me. That’s like the golden parachutes corporate leaders get no matter the results. That’s crazy.
Most of these leagues have generous pension plans too, so after only a few years they get paid. I had a friend in the 70s that only played a few years in the NFL in the late 60s and had a pension of around $1800 a month if I remember correctly. That was actually a lot of money back then. He had a beautiful home in Northern California with a mortgage of $470. Average now I believe is somewhere around $50k and you only have to play 3 years.
Professional athletes are well cared for, none more generously than baseball players. Their union is enormously powerful. I would like to see what we see in other leagues, teams from Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Oakland, Minnesota, Kansas City have a shot. Green Bay for crying out loud. You ever been to Green Bay? I have. Talk about small markets.
We just disagree on this. I’m ok with that.
The love hate relationship Boras has with so many people has positioned him to produce a NFT of him disguised as a superhero that sells for $100. The last guy to do that grossed over $4M and sold out in 12 hours.
Saw that too. Yoiks.
Both Correa and Bogaerts will be third basemen well before their contract is half over. Tatis’ long term contract looks like it was for a left fielder less than two years into his long contract.
Even with the current batch of huge contracts, there is a good chance Soto passed on the best contract he might get when he turned down the Nationals offer if he continues to hit below .300.
Notta to worry. Bora$$ will get him his.
I can see teams/owners/GMs paying the high AAV for these top drawer players. The part that strikes me as absurd is the length of the contracts. Anything over 6 years is ludicrous in my opinion.
Rodón got 6 as a 30 year old. Steamer projects 181 innings and a 4+ WAR. I’ll take the under on innings since he’s never done it before. BR projections look more realistic – 162 innings of 3.06. Luxury tax salary of $27 million. Worth it. Yeah probably. For how long? Not 6 years. But, it’s the Yankees. They can afford the losses.
I saw a report that Miami’s offer to JT is a 2-year deal. If the 2nd year is guaranteed, I am not sure why JT is not taking it, except he would still prefer a 1 year deal with LAD. I am guessing that the latter is his preference. Just waiting on the Bauer resolution.
Adam Kolarek has been signed to a MiLB contract. Others signed to MiLB contracts are RHRP Jake Pilarski, LHRP James Jones, and RHRP Lucas Williams.
Pilarski is 25 and an UDFA who was in Independent ball last year.
It is EXTREMELY unlikely any of the four will even get a look. But they will be playing professionally, and that is special.
2017 1st pick and CF Jeren Kendall has retired from professional baseball. It was reported on the OKC transactions list. That chapter is now officially closed. He got $2.9MM as a signing bonus, so he is not leaving empty handed. He is from one of the more academic prestigious universities, Vanderbilt, so I am guessing that his bonus is still working for him.
Another MiLB organizational depth signing is Catcher Patrick Mazeika. He and Hunter Feduccia will probably be the primary catchers at OKC. Both would be acceptable emergency catchers on a short term basis. Mazeika has MLB experience. He was DFA’d by both NYM and SFG.
When the A’s signed Trevor May, they DFA’s former Dodger OF, Cody Thomas. There are no available roster spots any longer on the LAD 40-man, so he does not appear to be in the LAD sights. Now if he clears waivers, maybe he signs for a MiLB deal and a ST invite.
Interesting on the trade of Cody. Thomas and Adam Kolarek to Oakland for Sheldon Neuse and Gus Varland. Kolarek and Neuse were both released and signed on MiLB deals with their former teams, Thomas has now been released, and Gus Varland is now with Milwaukee via Rule 5 draft.
The FA signing of Noah Syndergaard has now been officially announced by LAD. His $1.5MM incentives is $500K each for reaching 130 IP, 150 IP, and 170 IP. If Thor reaches earns his full $1.5MM in incentives, he will turn out to be a steal. Noah Syndergaard turned down multi-year deals for more $$ to be trained by the Master Pitching Yoda, Mark Prior. Thor is betting on himself.
Jordan Westburg was rumored to be on the LAD very short list in 2020 draft. Instead at #29, the Dodgers selected RHP Bobby Miller. The very next pick was Jordan Westburg to Baltimore. He played well at AAA last year. He was drafted as a SS out of Mississippi St., but seems to be transitioning to 2B. I was gung-ho on Westburg in 2020 (but NOT more than Miller). If the Dodgers are insistent on Gavin Lux at SS, then Jordan Westburg would be a fine addition for 2B consideration. I like Michael Busch, but his defensive weaknesses will be exploited in the shift ban. Westburg is also a 3B consideration. Westburg is 15 months younger than Busch.
Another LAD draft consideration, Gunnar Henderson is the heir apparent to SS for the Orioles, maybe as soon as this year. Baltimore just signed Adam Frazier to play 2B, so maybe Westburg could be a trade candidate.
Busch, Bauer and cash for Westburg.
Great news!
Twins sign Gallo, 1 year/11 million.
What’s so great about that? It means he won’t be coming back here.
The Dodgers already have their LH hitting OF who can play CF. His name is Jason Heyward. No reason to look anymore, right?
It came down to Heyward or Kendall and now Kendall has retired so it’s all on Jay Hey. I still have a feeling that signing will turn out well for us.
We also won’t be signing Benintendi who is going to the White Sox.
5 years/75 million
Andrew Benintendi to ChiSox. 5 years – $75MM.
Eric Hosmer has been DFA’d by Boston. Hosmer is of no interest to LAD, but he could end up back with San Diego who is paying him everything above MLB minimum anyway.
I’d be very surprised to see him back with SD. They tried for two or three years to dump him and I’m sure that left a bad taste in his mouth.
Much more likely he winds up back at KC where he had all of his success, or someplace like Baltimore that might be looking for a veteran to herd all the young kids.
Or Miami, or Cleveland, or Seattle, or LAA, or Oakland, or Pittsburgh, or…He is free.
Hosmer is one of those guys that hasn’t earned his money for several years. Heyward is another. You just never know.
Kendall did ok playing baseball. Made about $500k a year. Certainly not worth a first round pick. He can probably catch on as a coach somewhere.
Dodgers starting to sign a bunch of minor league deals.