I have written that I believe that the one time AF put emotion in front of logic and overreacted to the market was when he signed Trevor Bauer. He saw what NYM and SDP were doing at the time, and IMO, he believed he needed to respond. Both NYM and SDP were in on Bauer, and AF decided to jump head first into the deep end. Bad decision, and I said that at the time, not post suspension.
Have teams responded emotionally vs logically the last couple of years?
Last year Scott Boras entered the fray and got Texas to bid against themselves for both Corey Seager and Marcus Semien for a cool $500MM. For 2022-2023, Boras is representing 2 of the elite 4 FA SS (Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts) and one of the top 3 pitchers (Carlos Rodón).
I continue to read from baseball journalists and bloggers, and hear from MLB.com TV personalities, how bad the contracts for Xander Bogaerts (Padres) and Carlos Correa (Giants) are. In the short term, there is justification for Correa’s deal. $27MM AAV for an elite SS is not out of line. He will be entering his age 28 season. However, he is 6’4” with a history of injuries, and he is getting a 13 year deal for $350MM with full no-trade provisions??? That cannot end well, starting about half way through the contract.
Scott Boras has done it again. He got the Padres bidding on Bogaerts by themselves, and then got the Giants to bid for Correa by themselves. There is no possible scenario that Bogie was going to get anywhere near $280MM. The closest reported bidding team was Boston, and they were under $200MM. And the Padres did not need another SS. They do need more starting pitching, a 1B, a LF, and a catching upgrade. How far could that $280MM gone to fill those needs?
Correa’s market was plateauing at a level not acceptable to Boras. He could not get anyone to believe that LAD was remotely interested in Correa. I have to believe some LAD insider/employee was charged with the task of contacting Ken Rosenthal and advise him the Dodgers were not at all interested in Correa, and used the fans as a scapegoat.
So Boras pivots and does what he does best. He floats an idea that NYM are in on Correa, and within 36 hours the Giants overpay for one of his clients. Does anyone truly believe that NYM was the least bit interested in Carlos Correa for $250MM much less $350MM? The Twins? I think they got to $280MM for 10 years that was astronomically higher than anything they have ever offered a FA.
I think Boras had Farhan bidding against Pete Putila (SF GM). Really, who else was anywhere close to what SF decided Correa’s market was? The same is true for the Padres and Bogaerts.
Then yesterday, Boras got his 3rd high level client, Carlos Rodón, signed by NYY. His contract was for 6 years and $162MM. I am speculating that Boras wanted 6 years all along (instead of his expected 5), so they floated the concept they were looking at 7 years. I do think they had to “settle” for $27MM AAV. I always thought they were looking at $30MM. But even Boras could not conjure up another interested team that could meet their contract demands. Nevertheless, Rodón got a great payday by betting on himself. He went from 1 year at $3MM (2021), to two years and $44MM with an opt out in 2022 (which he exercised), to six years and $162MM (2023) with a no trade provision. Two years ago, Rodón was near non-tendered, and now he has a guaranteed $162MM contract in the organization he was looking for.
There is no doubt in my mind that AF would never sign Carlos Correa for 13 years $350MM, Xander Bogaerts for 11 years $280MM, or Carlos Rodón for 6 years $162MM. Is it any wonder that AF has never signed a Scott Boras client?
Dazzling winter: Scott Boras has
negotiated $1.01 billion in contacts with Carlos Rodon next up:
Carlos Correa: $350M
Xander Bogaerts: $280M
Brandon Nimmo: $162M
Masataka Yoshida: $90M
Sean Manaea: $25M
Cody Bellinger: $17.5M
Matt Boyd: $10M
James Paxton: $4M
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 15, 2022
Now we can add Carlos Rodón to the above list.