Earlier in the week, Bums wrote:
There are a lot of good shortstop prospects on other teams and the Dodgers have some good looking pitching prospects.
This is what confounds me a bit with the overall trade dynamic. Trading prospects for prospects is deemed verboten. At least that is how it looks to me. I cannot remember the last Diego Cartaya for Pete Crow-Armstrong trade. And yes, I would make that trade.
I believe it was STB and I who were discussing Cincinnati’s treasure trove of middle infielders and their need for OF. The Reds loaded up last year at the trade deadline with SS prospects, Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo, from Seattle in the Luis Castillo trade. They already had top SS prospect, Elly De La Cruz. I think we came to a conclusion that maybe Andy Pages for Matt McLain might be workable. Now that Matt McLain is in MLB, that seems out.
Top SS prospects per MLB Pipeline:
#1 – Jackson Holliday (Pictured) – A+ – Baltimore – There is about as much chance with Oakland winning the WS this year than getting Jackson Holliday out of Baltimore. Jackson Holliday may be about as untouchable as any player in MiLB. Maybe Ethan Salas – San Diego 17 year old catcher. There is a good possibility that Holliday could be the overall #1 prospect by pre-season 2024. He is 19 and already destroying A+ pitching and should be in AA before too long. He is on the Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Wander Franco trajectory. He will be called up late 2024 and be the O’s MLB SS in 2025.
#2 – Elly De La Cruz – AAA – Cincinnati – Just below the chances of Holliday being moved. Not happening.
#3 – Marcelo Mayer – A+ – Boston – Boston is pushing him as fast as they can. He is 20, at High A, and crushing it. He should get pushed to AA before too long. If he can prove he can play at AA, he will be in the discussion for Boston’s everyday SS in ST 2024.
#4 – Jordan Lawler – AA – Arizona – He is 20 in AA – He is being challenged, but he owned A Ball, so there is no reason to go backwards. He fits in with the speed racers that Arizona is producing. He is exactly what Arizona would look for in a SS.
#5 – Jackson Merrill – A+ – San Diego – San Diego may in fact trade Jackson Merrill this year, but it will be in a package for an established player. He will be the #1 ask from any selling team at the deadline.
#6 – Marco Luciano – AA – San Francisco – SF is about as bereft in middle infield prospects as are the Dodgers. Luciano is not going anywhere.
#7 – Noelvi Marte – AA – Cincinnati – He is 21 and in AA and playing very well. He is playing mostly SS but also getting acclimated to 3B. It appears that Cincinnati prefers Marte at 3B, but will let that work itself out. He is a bat first infielder, with better defensive chops than Vargas or Busch.
#8 – Brooks Lee – AA – Minnesota – He was a 1st round pick out of Cal Poly SLO last year and is in AA. Not tearing it up, but playing well. IMO, he is a notch or two below Alex Bregman. He is being pushed by Minnesota, as Bregman was by Houston, and with Correa at SS, Lee is going the Bregman route and should by the Twins 3B sometime next year. Lee is my next Bregman.
#9 – Colson Montgomery – AA – Chicago White Sox – 21 year old just learning AA. CWS will be doing a tear down probably this year. Montgomery is who they would look for in a tear down, so he is not going anywhere.
#10 – Edwin Arroyo – A+ – Cincinnati – 19 year old at High A. Not tearing it up offensively. He is a glove first SS. He will be a ML SS if he continues to develop the bat.
Those are the top 10 SS prospects in MiLB. Right or wrong, the Dodgers are not trading with Arizona, San Francisco, or San Diego. The first three prospects are not going anywhere. Noelvi Marte does look like a player who the Reds might consider trading. Marte is #21 MLB Pipeline and Bobby Miller is #19. Brooks Lee is #23. Yes the #8 SS prospect is the overall #23 prospect. Would you trade Bobby Miller for either Marte or Lee? Will Cincinnati or Minnesota make that trade?
I do think Jackson Merrill is a legit trade chit. But they will wait to see who the sellers are in July and try to find the best MLB player to bolster their roster. Maybe San Diego needs yet another SS and trades for Tim Anderson or Amed Rosario.
The only other SS prospect who might be available is Cincinnati’s Edwin Arroyo. But I would not trade any of the LAD AA starting pitchers straight up for Arroyo. There is nothing to indicate that Arroyo will develop into anything more than Jacob Amaya. The Dodgers would prefer to wait on Eddys Leonard rather than part with a pitching prospect for a glove 1st SS in High A. Dodgers prefer bats to gloves anyway.
So while I agree that the Dodgers do need an elite SS prospect, who would you have in mind. Yes, I agree that Bobby Witt Jr. should be traded, he will not be. Find SS #2.
I am still bullish on Jordan Westburg, Baltimore’s AAA SS/2B/3B/OF. He fits perfectly in the LAD system. Jordan was drafted the next pick after Bobby Miller. There were many pundits who thought the Dodgers were going to select Westburg. They selected Miller, and he made his MLB debut before Westburg. But Westburg should not be far behind. He could be the super utility player to spell the O’s infielders and outfielders. Or he could replace Adam Frazier as the everyday 2B or Jorge Mateo as the everyday SS. They have a lot ways they could go, but Westburg is definitely in their plans. It will take a lot to get Westburg from Baltimore.
Great writeup, Jeff, and exactly what I was looking for.
Only problem is you’ve tantalized me with these guys while at the same time reminding me we probably won’t be able to get any of them.
I’m sure AF has a similar list but probably a longer one. We’ll see come July or this winter if he’s ready to trade for a prospect ss, rather than an established one (by trade or free agency).
If that’s the case then Betts or Lux in 2024.
I think the shortstop ship done sailed. The great ML shortstops are now all playing somewhere else. None of those great prospects are available and Adames and Anderson are both hitting.200. What to do?
Here’s an idea, we ride Rojas the rest of the way this year. Next year we go with an infield of Vargas, Lux, Betts and Freeman. I’d say Busch at second but I traded him at the deadline for pitching.
Next year I see a rotation of Buehler, Ohtani, May, Gonsolin, Miller, Stone, Grove, Pepiot, Knack whoever we got at this year’s deadline and Kershaw.
That oughta do it.
The Dodgers raise pitchers. We can afford to sign and trade for bats, but we draft and build arms. And the way arms seem to get blowed out around here it would appear we need a lot of them. So an 11 man rotation should help keep them rested.
Trevor Bettencourt – Most of you do not know this name unless you follow MiLB. He is a 28 year old RHRP (29 in July) who has a total of 8.1 IP in AAA (last year in Phillies organization). Bettencourt was a 25th round pick of the Phillies in 2016 out of UCSB, and spent his entire career in the Phillies organization until he became a MiLB FA and elected free agency. LAD signed Bettencourt to a MiLB contract in February. He has pitched exclusively with Tulsa this year:
14 games, 16.0 innings, 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .186 BAA, 17 K, 7 BB, 1 HR
He has 2 holds this year, but has not had a save since 2018. In his career (since 2016) he has 12 saves in 17 save opportunities.
Why do I bring up his name? Of all the names who might have been promoted from Tulsa, it was Bettencourt who got the call. He joins the likes of Wander Suero, Tayler Scott, Gus Varland, Keegan Curtis, and Marshall Kasowski who have been added to the roster since May 20. Gavin Stone and Bobby Miller were the only pitchers moving to MLB, and Tyler Cyr was transferred to the 15 day IL (right shoulder impingement).
There was a cascading affect.
Ben Casparius was promoted to Tulsa from Great Lakes. Ben is a 24 year old RHP out of UConn. At Tulsa, Ben pitched in 8 games (all starts), 37.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, .173 BAA, 44 K, 18 BB. On the same night he was promoted, he was inserted into the game, relieving starter Kyle Hurt. Casparius threw 4.0 scoreless, on 2 hits (1 double), 0 walks, and 3 strikeouts. When Casparius entered, the Drillers were down 1-0, and he kept the NW Arkansas Naturals (KC) to the one run when Tulsa tied the score on a José Ramos HR (10). The Drillers scored a run in the 11th for their consecutive walkoff win.
23 year old Antonio Knowles was also promoted to Tulsa. At Great Lakes, he pitched in 13 Games, 17.2 IP, 1.53 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, .175 BAA, 25 K, 8 BB, 1 save in 2 save opportunities.
Lael Lockhart, who has gotten off to a rough start in 2023, was transferred to the Development List. He will be back in Arizona trying to work out the problems.
Both Casparius and Knowles should be on watch. Both are now at the critical AA level. Will Casparius start at Tulsa? Was he brought up to assume a starting role after Landon Knack’s imminent (my word) promotion to AAA? Is he going to be another of the piggyback pitchers at AA joining River Ryan and Kyle Hurt. Knowles will assume Bettencourt’s role.
Casparius from the blossoming 2021 draft.
Also note that H-I Chin returned to High-A in fine form. He was well-regarded before injuries curtailed last year for him.
DeLuca had a night last night. 3-5 with a homer and 4 driven in. I do not think LA is even thinking about trading for a SS. I do like the idea of a Vargas,3B, Betts SS, Lux 2B and Freeman infield. Lot of athleticism there. Buehler has said he hopes to be back by September 1. If he is, it will probably be out of the pen.
They will be looking for pitching and more pitching at the deadline. There are NO SS available that would be better than Rojas/Taylor. Tim Anderson is a -0.4 bWAR while Rojas and Taylor are 0.2 each. Amed Rosario is -0.5. Adames is 0.7 because he is a plus (97th percentile) OAA at SS and because HRs are valued more.
Rosario – Worst defensive SS in MLB according to Outs Above Average (OAA) -9
Adames – +5 OAA (#3)
Anderson -3 OAA
Rojas 0
Taylor -1
Adames .673 OPS
Rosario .603 OPS
Anderson .563 OPS
Rojas .505 OPS
Taylor .683 OPS
IMO, keep Rojas/Taylor at SS, and keep the MiLB pitching for MLB pitching.
I am still holding out hope (against all odds) that the Dodgers could swing a deal for Royce Lewis. He is rehabbing now and batting .333/.375/.700/1.075 with 3 HR and 2 doubles. He has started 5 games at SS and 3 at 3B. He is destined to be the Twins 3B, with Correa at SS. Polanco at 2B (same OAA as Miguel Vargas at -3.) Edouard Julien is playing 2B while Polanco is on the IL. Kyle Farmer is playing 3B right now and Donovan Solano is the utility.
Lewis is the Twins #2 prospect.
Brooks Lee is their #1 prospect
Both play shortstop.
Lee is expected to be MLB ready for 2024.
Lewis this year.
Lee is in AA and Lewis is in AAA.
Correa could be headed to the IL as early as Friday and reportedly has plantar fasciitis in his left foot. The Twins brought back Correa on a six-year, $200 million deal. He’s their long term shortstop.
Brooks Lee scouting grades:
Hit: 65 | Power: 55 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55
Royce Lewis scouting grades:
Hit: 50 | Power: 55 | Run: 70 | Arm: 55 | Field: 55 | Overall: 55
Lewis has already torn his ACL twice.
Freeman, Lux, Vargas, Lewis 2024
Freeman, Lux, Betts, Lewis 2024 (RF / 3B is more common than RF / 2B.
Freeman, Betts, Muncy, Lewis 2023
I know you’ve been on the Royce Lewis bandwagon and I just want you to know I’m right up their beside you. I’d love to get ahold of him.
This is where we dangle Cartaya this winter if he manages to get untracked. Or one or two of our good young pitchers from Tulsa.
Lewis not only plays short and third but can also play the outfield and he’s a righty bat.
And he’s a SoCal kid so we can immediately sign him to a 20 year extension.
Iglesias opted out of his deal with SD. Dodgers claimed Zack Burdi off of waivers from the Rays. He will be placed on the 40 man immediately. Aaron Hicks released by the Yankees, and Marisnick DFA’d by the Sox.
Here is Jonny DeLuca’s 1st AAA HR.
As I said below, do not understand the Burdi pickup. I will pass on Iglesias Hicks, and Marisnick, but that does not mean the Dodgers will.
I guess the Nerds believe Peralta is a better option against LHP Jalen Beeks. Can’t disagree.
Dodgers selected Zack Burdi off waivers from Tampa Bay. Transferred Tyler Cyr to 60 day IL. He has options, so he will be joining the ever-growing AAAA OKC pitching staff. This one has me perplexed. Do not understand the idea of taking up a 40 man spot for Zack Burdi. Maybe there is a reason, but it sure escapes me.
Thank you Dodgers for switching Martinez and Muncy in the batting order. Long overdue. Not exactly Mantle and Maris but still we have our own M&M squad.
Burdi is a former first rounder whose last few seasons have been riddled with injuries and surgeries. Maybe they are just doing the normal AF roll of the dice. If they don’t like what they see at OKC, well then, it’s Bye Bye Burdi (forgive me).
Well done Blue.
Dodgers really need Muncy and Outman to break out of their funks.
https://www.mlb.com/dodgers/news/james-outman-battling-first-rookie-slump
Moronta DFA’d by the Angels: Reason, after game buffet featured too many healthy foods
I long for Brett Anderson or Brandon McArthy over Syndegaard.
Better haircuts?