Here is a hypothetical. Tyler Anderson pitches to soft contact. He is a ground ball pitcher. How excited do you think TA would be with an infield of Max Muncy at 2B, Gavin Lux at SS, and Miguel Vargas at 3B? Or Michael Busch at 2B, Gavin Lux at SS and Max Muncy at 3B? That is not a very good defensive infield, and unless the Dodgers looks for a Justin Verlander or Jacob deGrom as pitchers with huge strikeout capabilities, they are going to have a tough time enticing a soft contact/ground ball pitcher to sign with LAD. The next best free agent strikeout rate pitcher is Andrew Heaney. Each of the remaining free agent pitchers pitched to about an average strikeout rate.
Cody Bellinger started the overwhelming number of games in CF for the Dodgers in 2022 (135 of 162). His batting line was .210/.265/.389/.654; 1.2 bWAR, 1.7 fWAR, and 78 OPS+ He struck out 27.3% of his PA and walked 6.9%. This was certainly far superior to his 2021 season. While he struck out more often and walked less in 2022, it was still an overall improvement.
Below is a snapshot of Belli’s 2022 Statcast metrics:
Defensively, Belli did not have a bad season, but he was certainly nowhere close to being a GG CF.
- FanGraphs Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) = 0
- FanGraphs UZR = 0
- Statcast Outs Above Average (OAA) = 6
- OAA In = -1
- OAA in LF/CF gap = 3
- OAA in RF/CF gap = 2
- OAA back = 1
In Belli’s 6 years of MLB he had a total DRS of 34. 18 came in 2019 AS A RF. In Belli’s 6 years of MLB he had a 11.8 UZR, 10.3 came in 2019 AS A RF. In Belli’s 6 years of MLB, his total OAA was 173.8, but it was a total of 20.8 over the last three years.
Running metrics have shown that Belli has been regressing over the last few years.
See below snapshot:
I know that it is hard to turn your back on a former MVP and someone who is entering his 27 year old season. The Dodgers can certainly afford to absorb Belli’s projected arbitration contract. But should they? It is projected to be approximately $18MM. Can the Dodgers utilize that $18MM elsewhere and find an acceptable replacement in CF. This is where it becomes tricky?
Internal options: James Outman (LHH), Trayce Thompson (RHH), and Chris Taylor (RHH) are the most obvious internal options.
Free Agents – Kevin Kiermaier LHH CF. He is a 3X CF GG and a 1X Platinum Glove winner. His running Statcast numbers are better than Belli’s. His 2022 OPS was just about the same as Belli’s, but had a superior OPS+ of 89. If the decision is one of Kiermaier and Belli, it might not be as clear cut as some would want us to believe.
These are the other FA CF:
Greg Allen (30)
Albert Almora (29)
Jackie Bradley Jr. (33)
Lorenzo Cain (37)
Jonathan Davis (31)
Adam Duvall (34)
Michael Hermosillo (28)
Odubel Herrera (31)
Travis Jankowski (32)
Aaron Judge (31)
Jake Marisnick (32)
Tyler Naquin (32)
Brandon Nimmo (30)
Brett Phillips (29)
Kevin Pillar (34)
A.J. Pollock (35)
Magneuris Sierra (27)
Aaron Judge is more of a RF. Any list that includes JBJ, Duvall, Jankowski, Marisnick, Pillar, Phillips, and Sierra as legit ML CF options is not a serious list.
Brandon Nimmo is the only game changing consideration at CF, but not at 5 years and $110MM (MLBTR).
However, the decision cannot be made in a vacuum. If the Dodgers do sign Kiermaier or sign/trade for any other FA CF, that would block James Outman who could in fact assume the regular CF position. Is he the future?
Trade candidates are probably even less likely. Many of us have previously positively discussed Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds as a likely target. That is generally only in the dreams of LAD fans, as Pittsburgh has steadfastly denied any desire to trade Reynolds. Now it is being reported that Reynolds CF defensive metrics are declining and he is perhaps a better option as a corner OF. Regardless it is his bat that generates the interest, and Pittsburgh is not taking calls on him. Impossible? No, but unlikely.
One other ML CF that AF/BG might consider is Baltimore’s Cedric Mullins.
Mike Trout, George Springer, Byron Buxton, Michael Harris? Less likely than Reynolds.
One other consideration is that the bellicose Scott Boras is Belli’s agent.
This will not be an easy decision for AF/BG to make. And there will be a lot to consider.
I honestly have no idea as to what the Dodgers will decide. We have no idea if the Dodgers actually do plan on resetting the CBT. We have no idea what the Trevor Bauer arbitration will be or when it is coming down. Other players that the Dodgers are considering have to be included in the discussion as an overall payroll budget is not known.
Speaking of Scott Boras, he left the GM meeting last week by letting everyone know that there will not be any conflict with LAD fans if Carlos Correa signs with them.
Carlos Correa’s agent Scott Boras doesn’t think previous bad blood between the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers will prevent his client from signing with the National League West champions this offseason.
“I don’t think anybody cares about what happened years ago and has been remedied,” Boras said, according to the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett. “With their owners, they have to win, and it’s not easy to win. You can’t let anything get in the way.”
Who here is shocked that Boras would say whatever is necessary to get the other 29 teams to believe the Dodgers will in fact be pursuing Correa. And they may very well be interested, but this is Scott Boras pushing the envelope for his client. Shockingly he is doing the same as same with Cody Bellinger.
If we have Outman, Thompspn and Taylor to play CF the discussion should switch to getting a good bat to play left field.That’s where I think we can upgrade, plus at SS. Having 2 .275 hitters instead of 1 .300 hitter makes a better lineup, especially wo Belli.
Mookie, new lf, Freeman, Smith,Turner/Muncy, new SS, Vargas, Lux,CF
More consistency thru the lineup, less K’s, less $!
That’s how I see the CF dilemma as well. Maybe none of them are Cody’s equal defensively, but Thompson and Taylor can play a competent CF. Outman unknown, but maybe he can duplicate what Bellinger provided in terms of potential slug and as an athlete. I think it’s a decent chance one of the three over-achieves and takes the position by year end. Very likely Taylor if his troubles this year were truly injury related and not aging.
If Vassegh is to be believed, then LF could be the return of Joc. Not sure Friedman would want to get lose the picks that would come with it, but could present a nice platoon option with Vargas. None of it is ideal, but I think it’s an improvement over last year with the LH power Joc would add.
Boras lives in his bubble that floats high above planet earth.
We led the league in runs scored and in ERA. What else is there to this game? Well, there’s doing it in October. How do we guarantee we play well then?
We don’t.
I’m indifferent about Bellinger. It seem like years we’ve been watching him get beat at the plate. He’s not willing to change so why pay him near $20 million for more of the same?
Hopefully Mookie, Freddie, Will, Gavin, and Muncy will hit, Urias, May, Gonsolin, and Kershaw will pitch and we can remain competitive. I’m left here thinking if we can’t beat a Wild Card team after leading all of baseball in scoring and pitching wtf difference does it make who plays shortstop?
Badger, did you get your bran yet this AM?
Yep. Didn’t help. UCLA lost. Oregon lost. Rams are in trouble. Lakers look like sh*t. And the Dodgers are a 90’s-‘05 Braves re-run. Bran won’t help. Hey, I just call ‘em as I see ‘em.
I might suggest we look for players hungry to win their first ring.
UCLA and Oregon losing did not bother this Trojan. Now the only team in the Pac 12 with an outside chance of the College Football Playoffs is USC. Okay with their defense, not very likely. And, UCLA losing does take away luster of next week’s game.
I have never been a Rams fan. I have always been a Green Bay fan. So I am not having a good NFL season either.
I was a Lakers fan in the West/Goodrich/Wilt/Baylor/Jimmy Mc/Riley 60’s and thru the Magic/Jabbar/Worthy/Nixon/Green years. I was indifferent after that until I moved into the Sacramento area and ran into a bunch of obnoxious Sacramento Kings fans. Then I became a big trash talker during the 2002 season. After the 2002 championship, I really stopped caring about basketball, and could care less who wins the NBA. I think I can name 3 Lakers…LeBron, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook. And the only reason I know Anthony Davis is because of his name…one of the greatest Trojans of all time.
I cannot argue your point on the comparison of the current LAD team and the 90’s to 05 Braves as I have made it myself on countless occasions. The one difference is that the Dodgers have had 1 HOF player in this run, while Atlanta had 4 (Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Chipper Jones) and one who should have be a HOF IMHO, Andruw Jones. How do you only win 1 WS with Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz on the mound, and the two Jones’?
It is tough to find the GOOD hungry players on teams willing to part with them. I have mentioned Shane Bieber, Corbin Burnes, and Bryan Reynolds tooooooo many times, and I always get a resounding why would Cleveland or Pittsburgh trade them? The League is filled with players who could fill that bill, but the Dodgers are not going to get them without a huge overpay which most LAD fans are not willing to pay. So maybe we should just believe in Bluto’s crapshoot theory and just hope that it will be LAD’s turn coming up sooner rather than later. BTW, I do not buy into that theory.
I never was a LeBron fan. Lakers, yes, him, no. I’m a Pac12 guy. I was headed to UCLA but didn’t go, so I can easily root for whoever wins the conference. Every year the conference shoots itself in the foot. I can certainly cheer for USC but I doubt they make it to the playoffs. They need a considerably better defense.
Funny you should mention HOF because I thought of that too. It’s a good point, but for me it doesn’t change the comparison. We floundered this year with 3 HOFers on the roster. Maybe a 4th in Turner.
I still don’t see teams parting with young controllable players. It’s possible of course, but doubtful. You nailed the reason why I don’t see us doing it – huge overpay. We just don’t need to do that.
You said what AF/BG seem to believe…
I think this is where we may differ. I do not think the Dodgers MiLB system have any elite players. They could have one in Diego Cartaya, but not Vargas, Busch, Pages…Good depth…absolutely, but no game changers.
I would still like to see them package multiple prospects for a game changer. The best chance is for a starting pitcher. But I would not mind an All Star at CF or SS or big RH bat (3B or corner OF).
Or they could hold on to them all and let their value disintegrate before they become MiLB FA like Yadier Alvarez, Omar Estevez, and Leonel Valera. Soon to be joined by Jeren Kendell and Kody Hoese and Luis Rodriguez?
Good point. Personally I believe the game changers will come through free agent signings.
I assume you are thinking of Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Anderson. I just do not see the Dodgers spending big this year. I see the Big 4 SS will land in Philadelphia, Atlanta, Seattle, Chicago (Cubs), St. Louis, or San Francisco. If the Giants do not sign Judge (and I do not think they will) they will sign one of the 4 SS. Farhan will not be outbid this time. Boras will use AF/BG to build up the price for Correa and Bogaerts, but they will not sign with LAD.
But you could be right, and I am just a contrarian.
The Dodgers best chance for obtaining Byron Buxton was prior to the Twins extending him. That’s when I wanted to go after him and even then that idea was met with boos.
Steve Sax skipped AAA and went directly to the Dodgers from AA. Might Pages play in the AFL plus a strong showing in Spring Training give him a shot at CF? Stranger things have happened.
The women I know that follow the Dodgers or who are aware of the Dodger players because of their husbands like Outman. I like Outman. He already has a fanbase. Too bad Thompson doesn’t hit lefties. Was 2022 just one of those years. Justin Turner had one or two of those years where he hit righties better than lefties.
Let’s not forget that if Belli can’t play Gold Glove defense in CF he can play it at 1st base. The Yankees might want to add a lefty hitter next year. Could a two team, 6 player trade with the Yankees be in the future?
Speaking of wealthy owners, if deGrom signs with Texas or SF, might the Mets be interested in Bauer?
I don’t think the Dodgers will lose much defense with Lux at SS over Trea. I’m more worried about 3rd base and 2nd base. One of the reasons the Giants fell so hard in 2022 after doing so well in 2021 was the drop in up-the-middle defense. All up-the-middle defenses through the league will drop with the elimination of the extreme shifts.
Come on Fred. Don’t keep us in suspense. Two team, 6 player trade with the Yanks. Who are the other four besides Belli and Gleyber?
Well, the Yanks have two shortstop prospects and only one of them can be used at a time. The Dodgers won’t get their best one but is their second best better than Amaya?
Oswaldo Peraza is the NYY 2nd SS prospect, and yes he is a better prospect than Jacob Amaya. Only those who believe that only LAD has good prospects would say otherwise. He played a full year at AAA as a 22 year old, and more than held his own offensively and defensively. .259/.329/.448/.777. 19 AAA HRs. 23.3% K rate. 33 SB and 5 CS. But he did not stop there. He was called up in September to NYY and in 57 PA he batted .308/.404/.429/.832. He could very well be the 2023 version of Jeremy Peña.
NYY may like Peraza more at SS and are now looking to move Anthony Volpe to 2B. Volpe is about a year younger than Peraza. Either way they go, SS is not going to be a problem for NYY. Could be the beginning of a new Alan Trammell/Lou Whitaker. Could also be that the days of Gleyber Torres (2B) and IKF (SS) could be over in NYY, especially if Aaron Judge bolts.
BTW NYY has another SS at AA, 22 year old Trey Sweeney, who will be moved to 3B. Maybe the Dodgers could get him instead of Gelof???
Seems like the Yanks are collecting shortstops the way we collect catchers. Maybe we could swap them a catcher for a shortstop.
Bums, I am not sure that Byron Buxton becoming a LAD was met with boos as much as it was met with NOT GONNA HAPPEN!! Just like my picks of Reynolds and Bieber 3 years ago. As most continue to remind me…NOT GONNA HAPPEN!!
The Dodgers will lose a ton of defense at SS with Lux. Lux was never a good defensive SS in MiLB. It was always mentioned in scouting reports that with Lux’s lack of accuracy with his throws at SS, he was destined to play 2B. He should be typed in as the every day 2B and let him fully develop offensively and defensively. Quit messing with him. He is a good (not elite) defensive 2B. What truly scares me is a Muncy (2B), Lux (SS), Vargas or Rios (3B) defensive infield. That will be a nightmare for LAD ground ball pitchers.
Totally agree on Lux. Put him at second, let him know he’s your every day second baseman and don’t mess around with him by moving him all over the place. He seems like the kind of guy who lets things get into his head. Let him concentrate on hitting and fielding his position at second base.
If finances or player choices mean we can’t get any of the big 4 shortstops on the market, I’m OK with signing Jose Iglesias, who had a very nice year last year. I think you were on the Iglesias band wagon as well Jeff, correct? I would think we could get him on a one year deal for around $6-8MM.
Yes I have been on the Jose Iglesias bandwagon.
“Totally agree on Lux.”
Me too.
We can live with Amaya at short if we find 4 oWAR somewhere else. I’m also ok with Iglesias. But I got a feeling after Seager and Turner the Dodgers want to go with a big name at short. And yes Jefe, Iglesias with 4 syllables is a long name, but that’s not the same thing.
Hey Badger, no fair taking my snarky replies before I can get to them.
Maybe we could get Jarrod Saltalammachia to come out of retirement.
I have no clue which way AF/BG are leaning and everything we think and say is guesswork. Cody is going to pick up points on his BA simply because the shift is no more. How much? That is anybody’s guess. As for Kiermaier, he is going to be 33 next year, has nothing near Bellinger’s power, and he is also injury prone, just like Buxton. He has played more than 150 games exactly once in his career. Yes, he is an elite defender. But I don’t think he is that great. Most of the others on that list are has been’s and never weres.
That is why Belli is a huuuuge dilemma for AF/BG. They cannot justify paying him $18MM ++, can they? Do they turn it over to the “kid” who is all of 22 months younger than Belli? Or do they turn it over to the journeyman OF? Thompson actually made a play in the NLDS that I do not think Bellinger makes. I think Bellinger lets it fall in. And Trayce had a .901 OPS and a 145 OPS+ as a Dodger (239 PA). Or do they do a huuuuuge overpay for a Pirates CF who may not be much of a CF any longer? There is no must have FA or CF trade out there.
Truth be told, Outman played far more games in RF than he did in CF for OKC (44 to 6). Drew Avans was the primary CF for OKC and Jason Martin was a distant #2. The two best defensive CF in the Dodger MiLB system will never see Dodger Stadium as a Dodger (if at all)…Jeren Kendall and Jake Vogel.
Kiermaier may be turning 33, but he is still a better defensive CF than is Belli. Belli WAS an elite defensive RF, but not CF. Trent Grisham, Alek Thomas, Daulton Varsho, and probably Corbin Carroll, if he ever got to play CF, are all better CF in the NL West.
This is why AF gets the big bucks. As Bluto likes to remind us, AF is smarter than everyone here combined. There will not be a right decision or a wrong decision. This will be one that I will not second guess. It will either be Belli, Outman, or Trayce.are
What might I consider? I would go all out for a trade for Pete Armstrong-Crow who is now in the Cubs system. Or Robert Hassell III or James Wood who are now in the Nats system.
Wait a minute, if you combine my IQ with Bums IQ, you get a number that just has to be higher than AF’s
Armstrong-Crow, Haskell III I never heard of. James Woods is a terrific actor but probably too old to play center field.
Not James Woods, but James Wood (no S). Excellent CF prospects that have been traded in major deals. Wood and Hassell were traded in the Soto deal. Armstrong-Crow was traded by NYM in the Javy Baez deal.
Bums, where are your comments on Matt Chapman? He actually could be available this year. He fits the RVS mold of a HR or K hitter. He is in the final year of his 2 year $25MM deal. The Blue Jays are quickly approaching the CBT threshold so maybe the Dodgers can look at Chapman and Teoscar Hernandez?
The thought of having a defensive left side of the infield consisting of Chapman and Amaya is very appealing. The thought of having a third baseman who strikes out more than CT3 is not.
As they say, when you hit the ball, things can happen. I subscribe to that theory and I’m hoping the last 3 or 4 spots in the order will not look the same as they did last year, when the breeze of all those whiffs was enough to blow over the catcher and the ump.
If the Dodgers were to wind up with Gleyber Torres I would hope it would be for 3rd base assuming he would do well there.
I don’t mind Ks as long as they OPS close to .900. An example of what I’m not talking about is Chris Taylor.
Chapman lifetime OPS = .797, last year .757.
I still like Chapman. While he may strike out like Taylor, he has third base power and plays awesome defense. The Dodger hitting coaches will be able to reduce his K rate 😂
I’m assuming you’re putting Vargas in left field.
I say sign Bogarrea and let Vargas play along side him for the next 5 years. Then sign Senga and tee it up.