There are certainly different ways to look at the trade deadline.
- Missed opportunities
- Made effort to acquire top tier players
- Secondary tier players
- Met their goals
The Dodgers set out on the trade deadline indicating they were going to be aggressive looking to add:
- Starting pitching
- Relief pitching
- RH bats
Check that box. They added two starting pitchers, RHSP Lance Lynn and LHSP Ryan Yarbrough. They added two relief pitchers, RHRP Joe Kelly, and LHRP Ryan Yarbrough. They added two RH bats, Kiké Hernández, and Amed Rosario.
No it was not what Dodger fans were hoping for with respect to the pitching. Fans were hoping that Lucas Giolito, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, Michael Lorenzen, Aaron Civale, and later Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Dylan Cease, and Mitch Keller.
The Dodgers were reportedly focused in on E-Rod, and actually had deal made with Detroit, only to have E-Rod invoke his no trade to LAD. Apparently this caught Andrew Friedman by surprise. None of us were part of the negotiations, so we have no idea as to how and when the no-trade clause was finally brought up. There is no way that AF deserves any criticism for this. Any criticism directed to AF has to be a result of frustration on not getting the pitcher, not because of any mistake by AF.
The Dodgers were reportedly second on JV. I would hazard a guess that it was really second of two options, but it was still 2nd choice. I think this was another case where the player exercised his no trade clause. The price Houston paid was steep.
NYM trades RHSP Justin Verlander and cash to Houston for 22 year old CF Drew Gilbert (AA – #1 Houston prospect, #68 Top 100), and 20 year old OF, Ryan Clifford (A+, Houston # 4 Prospect). The New York Mets are sending the Astros about $54 million in the Justin Verlander trade. The Mets are paying $35M on Verlander for this year and next year, then half of the $35M in 2025 if the option triggers.
I believe it was Jim Callis (MLB Pipeline) who said that they were about to push Clifford to #2 after the deadline. I am not sure AF felt comfortable with that price.
I do not believe that AF was ever truly interested in reuniting with Scherzer, and I think vice versa.
That left Lucas Giolito and Michael Lorenzen who were considered by most in the first tier of rental SP.
Giolito went to the Angels very early in the trade week. White Sox traded RHSP Lucas Giolito and RHRP Reynaldo López to LAA for MiLB catcher prospect Edgar Quero (LAA #2 prospect) (AA) and MiLB LHSP prospect Ky Bush (LAA #3 prospect) (AA). Quero is now CWS #2 prospect and Bush is CWS #5 prospect.
That is a pretty steep price for a rental, especially one with a season ERA of 3.79 and a July ERA of 4.98. In his first start for LAA, Giolito went 5.1 IP, 3 runs, 6 hits, 2 HR, 1BB, 5 K.
AF/BG rightfully walked away from that one, but unfortunately it seemed to set the standard for future rental SP trades.
07-31-2023 – Cleveland trades RHSP Aaron Civale to Tampa Bay for 1B prospect, Kyle Manzardo, #4 Tampa Bay, top 100 prospect (#37), #2 1B prospect.
St. Louis traded RHSP Jordan Montgomery and RHRP Chris Stratton to Texas for MLB LHRP John King, 21 year old utility infielder Thomas Saggese and 21 year old RHP Tokiah Roby. Saggese was Texas’ #14 prospect and is now St. Louis’ #8 prospect. Roby was Texas’ #11 prospect and is now St. Louis’ #4 prospect.
I am fairly comfortable that the Dodgers were not going to match the Civale price (probably Busch). For Montgomery, the Dodgers probably do not have a comp for Saggese. Roby’s age makes him preferable to teams over 24 year old pitchers. But as far as MLB ready, the Dodgers have multiple RHP who would be preferable if that was the primary consideration. We have no idea what St. Louis was looking for. They said they wanted MLB ready pitchers which LAD has. The Dodgers may not have been willing to part with 2 of them for a rental.
Detroit trades RHP Michael Lorenzen to Philadelphia for 20 year old 2B, Hao-Yu Lee (Phillies #5 prospect – A+). It is kind of a break out year for a 31 year old in his walk year. I really have no idea what kind of prospect. His closest comp with the Dodgers would probably be Jorbit Vivas who is 2 years older than Lin.
- Hao-Yu Lin – Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 50 | Run: 45 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50
- Jorbit Vivas – Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 35 | Run: 45 | Arm: 45 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50
If Detroit wanted middle infielder, the Dodgers could not match what Philadelphia sent to Detroit.
Dylan Cease’s and Mitch Keller’s names were brought up but were never really considered to be available. Cease stayed in the discussion late in the day, but there is no evidence that any deal was about to come together.
There were four secondary tier SP that actually were moved:
- Lance Lynn – To the Dodgers
- Jack Flaherty – To Baltimore
- Ryan Yarbrough – To the Dodgers
- Rich Hill – To San Diego
Chicago White Sox traded RHSP Lance Lynn and RHRP Joe Kelly to Dodgers for RHP Nick Nastrini (LAD #9), RHRP Jordan Leasure (not ranked), and Trayce Thompson.
St. Louis trades RHP Jack Flaherty to Baltimore for 24 year old MiLB infielder César Prieto (Baltimore’s #16 prospect – AAA) and 23 year old LHP Drew Rom (Baltimore’s #18 prospect – AAA)
Kansas City trades LHP Ryan Yarbrough to Dodgers for utility infielder Devin Mann (#29 LAD prospect) and 19 year old SS, Derlin Figueroa (not ranked LAD ACL).
Pittsburgh trades LHSP Rich Hill and 1B Ji-Man Choi to San Diego for three MiLB players; AA LHP Jackson Wolf (SD #16 prospect – just called up to SD) , Estuar Suero (17 year old OF), and Alfonso Rivas 26 year old AAAA 1B (tearing up AAA this year).
The costliest transaction from a prospect standpoint would be for Jack Flaherty. I think Baltimore overpaid because they knew they had bring in a SP. If there was a fan base that was expecting a big deadline move more than LAD it was probably Baltimore. Both teams need SP and had the most prospect capital to spend.
Baltimore’s farm system is every bit on par with LAD. A middle infielder (#16 prospect), and LHP (#18 prospect).
- INF César Prieto (Now St. Louis #9) – Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 45 | Arm: 45 | Field: 50 | Overall: 45
- LHP Drew Rom (Now St. Louis #26) – Scouting grades: Fastball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 45 | Overall: 40
Dodger comps might be:
- Rayne Doncon (LAD #11) – Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 55 | Run: 45 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 45
- Peter Heubeck (LAD #27) – Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 45 | Overall: 40
Again, we have no idea as to whether AF/BG actually wanted Flaherty at that price. But the Dodgers could certainly have met that price.
Ryan Yarborough has comparable metrics and peripherals to Flaherty. The cost to Flaherty was more than what the Dodgers paid for Yarbrough.
I am not at all certain that AF/BG ever considered Rich Hill.
Overall, I think the Dodgers did okay in secondary tier SP if that is where they wanted to stay, expecting Clayton Kershaw back, and believing both Julio Urías and Tony Gonsolin can improve over the next two months. Ryan Pepiot was much better in his rehab on Tuesday. Bobby Miller deserves to stay in the rotation. While I think Emmet Sheehan and Michael Grove could be effective in the pen, especially as a multi inning reliever, I am sure they are destined to OKC. But the starter depth is growing again.
Ryan Pepiot's fourth rehab start:
4.0 IP | 3 H | R | ER | BB | 4 K | HR
70 pitches/46 strikes
Only run on a leadoff homer. Retired 9 of final 10, with the only batter reaching on an error during that time.
IMHO, stuff seems fine. Command getting there. #Dodgers
— Alex Freedman (@azfreedman) August 2, 2023
Starter Depth:
- Kershaw
- Urías
- Gonsolin
- Lynn
- Yarbrough
- Miller
- Pepiot
- Sheehan
- Grove
Missed opportunities? It is hard to say. You have to know if they actually did have opportunities for the elite players.
Make effort to acquire top tier players? They had a deal done for Eduardo Rodriguez, and he pulled the plug. I do believe they were trying to make something happen on Dylan Cease, but could not close the deal.
Secondary tier players? Lance Lynn, Ryan Yarbrough, Joe Kelly, Amed Rosario, and Kiké Hernández. They have existing top tier position players. Secondary is all they really needed, and both bats are RH and can hit LHP.
With all they acquired, the Dodgers lost 2 Top 30 prospects: Nick Nastrini (#9) and Devin Mann (#29). Both of the prospects have multiple players that can replace them.
While it was not what many were hoping for, overall, AF/BG accomplished their goals, and did not overpay for any of the acquired players.
Are the Dodgers better on paper than they were this time last week? Yes. Is it good enough to get to the playoffs? Yes. Is it good enough to win the NL pennant and WS? That will depend on how well Kershaw, Urías, and Gonsolin pitch come October. Are they capable of winning? Yes. Will they? That is why they play the games.
Lance Lynn made his LAD debut on Tuesday. He certainly filled out that #35 jersey a little differently than who was donning that jersey in 2022. Lynn was as advertised. He was an innings eater (7.0). He strikes out batters (7). And he gives up HR (3). He provided the Dodgers with a Quality Start and 7 IP. When was the last LAD pitcher to throw 7 innings? Clayton Kershaw, June 20. I can here the skeptics…it was only the A’s. You play who has been scheduled. It was a positive start for Lynn.
Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly, Amed Rosario, and Kiké Hernández have all been good in games for the Dodgers. I imagine we will see Yarbrough face San Diego this weekend.
I thought I was going to be disappointed. But while I am not overwhelmed, I am cautiously optimistic.
Mets buy top prospects, spend a lit of money and lower CBP.
Dodgers got only a little better. Lynn went 7 against a team on pace for 117 losses. He looks great until he lays cookies on the center of the table.
Verlander to Houston was no real surprise.
In my opinion Friedman and his team maybe should have known Rodriguez didn’t want to play on the West Coast. Yarborough is an unknown. He’s only started 7 games. Is he Mitch White or Tyler Anderson.
Depending on where you look this morning the Dodgers slipped in the power rankings. Atlanta still leads the NL. No surprise Houston was bumped up. As I said yesterday I still expect the Dodgers to prevail in the West. This team needs Kershaw and Urias. They also still need to score.
Yarborough has not been scheduled for any start for the next 2 weeks. Looks like we’ll have to wait for a while to get a look at him unless they bring him in as a reliever.
Lynn definitely has the ammo to collect K’s, but he now leads the league in HRs, 31. As you mentioned, he just won a game against a very weak team. Did we get better in our pitching? I doubt it, but I like Rosario and hope he can catch fire offensively.
Shout out to Kike. He was our hero last game. Great hustle to make that catch and a solid hit to drive in 3 runs. It’s the little things that make me happy these days……………
Mets are a joke and Manfred should look into their deadline doings. Going way over budget to sign guys then flipping them for prospects ain’t the baseball I know.
How is that not a great thing?
If you’re being serious, it could enable an ultra-rich organization to way overpay for free agent talent knowing they can trade it later plus cash for prospects.
Buying prospects isn’t real player development.
Of course it’s real player development.
Here’s why I think it’s great:
The players had ultimate controlThe fans get to see the players in meaningful gamesAll players should make their maximum.The outcome is that the Mets, an important and widely liked team, have a quicker path to relevance. While the Astros and Rangers have a better short-term window. How is this not a win-win across the board?Wouldn’t you rather have ultra-rich organizations paying for talent?Finally, if buying prospects isn’t real player development, is trading prospects as they near the end of their arb years also “real player” development?
That was, at some point, a readable list. I’m trying to make it more readable:
The players had ultimate control
The fans get to see the players in meaningful games
All players should make their maximum.
The outcome is that the Mets, an important and widely liked team, have a quicker path to relevance.
While the Astros and Rangers have a better short-term window. How is this not a win-win across the board?
Wouldn’t you rather have ultra-rich organizations paying for talent?
Finally, if buying prospects isn’t real player development, is trading prospects as they near the end of their arb years also “real player” development?
They are no longer prospects at that point.
Good point!
Love the prospect comps. Lin & Vivas is a fascinating study, with the difference in age and power both in our favor.
Doncon & Heubeck? I probably would’ve been ok with that price for Flaherty but only because those aren’t my personal favorite guys.
We lost Nastrini but hung onto Stone, Sheehan, Pepiot, Frasso, Knack, Ryan, Hurt, Bruns, Kopp & more.
As our position players get older, we’re going to need some young bats to step in. Lux, Vargas, Busch, Cartaya, Rushing, Vivas, Pages, Ramos, DePaula all will have clear shots at jobs the next 2-3 years.
So…. it’s a transition year?
Plaschke ain’t happy. He’s convinced the Dodgers laid an egg. Didn’t get anybody they really wanted. Though I’m not pissed, he isn’t wrong.
I stopped reading Plaschke when I stopped getting the LA Times every morning.
I miss Bud Furillo when he was with the old Examiner.
Started my sports columnist reading with Jim Murray.
I’m fine with Plaschke. I don’t always agree with him, but he’s an award winning columnist who expresses strong opinions.
Mets threw in a significant amount of money to get the Verlander deal done. I thought they had stated they were not willing to do that.
That’s true. It’s almost twice what I figured they might do. Was it worth it for that prospect? Will Verlander get the required 140 innings for that third year option? I wouldn’t bet either way on it but frankly I’ve seen enough of both he and Scherzer.
Curious why you don’t think the Dodgers would have parted with Busch.
I think they value Busch more than any of those mediocre pitchers. That does not mean they are going to keep him. They could use him to package for an elite pitcher in the winter. Maybe he would have been included for Cease. Or maybe he will be the primary DH next year. Who knows for sure what the plans are for him. But he is way better than to put in a package for any of the rentals, including Giolito.
We cannot have it both ways. If our farm system is so good, why give them up for mediocre rentals? That is what was being traded this past week. Outside of Civale (and the two NYM pitchers), which player traded was not a rental. I am sure I am missing one.
I guess for me it comes down to, why give up potentially high ceiling everyday position players (Busch, Miguel Vargas, De Paula, Joendry Vargas) for mid to back end of the rotation pitchers, of which they have plenty of.
I was mostly speaking of Civale. I agree about him (Busch) not being worth it for a middle of the road rental.
If our system is that good, wouldn’t they be helping to the point we don’t need backup players like Kiké and pitching like we just picked up? With the exception of 1-4 our entire team looks like a utility mix. And instead of the needed front of the rotation starter, we picked up an inning eating 35 year old pitcher with an ERA around 6 and Yarborough who as you mentioned might be an opener.
Dont get me wrong, I still like this team. But I do see cracks in it. In the last 28 days Heyward is OPSing .621. Smith looks tired. JD may be hurt. Kershaw, Gonsolin and Urias look iffy to me. Maybe it all works. But Atlanta looks like the team to beat. And I’ve said it before, I am not counting SD out.
From what I understand the Padres would have to play over .600 ball just to get to 90 wins. Not happening. Which is awesome lol
They are 5 games back in Wild Card.
and have a losing record. very little chance of even getting to the postseason let alone to the World Series
Record means squat. One winning streak and they’re right back in it.
they are 53-55 with 54 games remaining. Do the math. That would have to be one big winning streak. They have to win 29 of their final 54 games just to have a winning record.
Again, they are 5 games back in the Wild Card.
I don’t think they’re going anywhere this year Badger
I am reserving judgement until I see how these guys perform the rest of the year.
Good call!
I agree.
Great article on Friedbrain at the Times: https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2023-08-02/dodgers-trade-deadline-hernandez
What did you find great about it?
Hernandez is a gifted writer, so it is well-written. However, I’d quibble if you thought it was well-reasoned.
I certainly understand the idea of big-game fishing. But Hernandez calls out Rodriguez for his ERA of 4.05, yet he laments not acquiring Cease with his 2023 ERA of 4.15?
Only one team can win the World Series and 31 cannot. Thus it’s very easy to sit back and say Team X won’t win the World Series.
Nobody knows anything.
It’s easy this year.
BTW there are 30 teams
LOL!
Thank you.
Who knows what I was thinking about with 32!
Baskin Robbins? [Plus dog ice cream]
NFL more likely.
Lynn has a great snarl. I love it. Passion inside of this guy.
I was filled with passion at his age and earlier. Mostly just got me in trouble.
I wonder if his nickname is Bear? Would you be willing to share?
Sure, I know more than a few with the nickname. Beats the hell out of the one I had prior to Bear. Chow truck. Badger will get the reference. One of my in laws, a tiny Hawaiian dude, is nicknamed Papa Bear.
Well he does look like he doesn’t get cheated at the buffet.
I haven’t looked at his metrics, maybe Jeff can help with them, but there appears to some flat pitches left center cut. If he can’t find the outer markers with them he needs lose them. Prior should be able to help.
I like him too.
We’ll see how he fares against an MLB team.
Very optimistic view from Jeff. He makes a lot of good points but I think Dodgers will be lucky to hold onto the division and have their lowest WS odds in 10 years. They still could win it, but it will take pitchers getting healthy and improving tremendously plus clutch hitting in the playoffs. In recent years, the Dodgers have had injuries and burnout from pitchers which hurt them in playoffs. This year they will need return to health and big pitcher improvement to compete.
The Braves are clearly the best team in the NL, but also the Dodgers pitching is much worse than Padres, Phillies and Brewers.
The Phillies brought in Lorenzen as their 4/5 pitcher and he may be better than any current starter for the Dodgers. Friedman should have given Vivas or comparable for Lorenzen and also should have brought in Montgomery in my opinion. Other clubs with much worse farm systems are making strong bids to improve while the Dodgers have done very little the last two years at the trade deadline. Put me in the frustrated camp but I can still hope for the best.
Cool. 100% see him as reliever in the bigs.
Analyze this:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/lance-lynn-458681?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb
Has anyone heard what the Dodgers were trading for Rodriguez?
No, but in light of the Eddys Leonard trade maybe he was a lesser piece. Logically, the other prospect should’ve been better than Nastrini so maybe Stone, Frasso or Ryan?
I like it better not knowing.
Like the Pages/Rengifo trade with its unknown extras.
Last week’s discussion point RHP prospect Kendall Williams has been promoted to Double-A Tulsa
Williams posted a 1.90 ERA and .155 opponent average in five starts last month
Pretty good
I am glad to see him get the AA promotion. I think it was a little late, but that is just me believing that the Dodgers generally slow roll their prospects.
Did they have a space for him? It looks like he’s replacing Nastrini.
would he get this call without the trade?
I hope so, but maybe not…
Nice
I knew there was going to be comments that Lynn’s outing was not much to talk about, because, after all it was only against Oakland. Does anyone believe that Tony Gonsolin or Julio Urías will complete 7 innings? How many actually believe they will have a quality start, as Lynn did? The Dodgers need Gonsolin and Urías to turn it around more than Lynn pitching like an Ace (which he is not). Lynn is a back end rotation pitcher. He pitched just fine for 7 innings.
I was happy with it. Grown man outing.
Does anyone believe that Tony Gonsolin or Julio Urías will complete 7 innings?
Nope. Nobody
I do!
No I don’t.
Why is Muncy in the lineup against a lefty?
Why is Rojas in the lineup against anybody?
Good question.
JDM injury makes CT3 to DH sensical.
But Rojas really should be coming off bench.
Pull Gonso. He’s got nothing.
This was a weird comment.
Also in need, Also promoted was Sauryn Lao, an infielder before getting converted to pitching this year
Lao had a 2.98 ERA, 57 K (33.7% K rate), only 7 BB in 42⅓ IP for Rancho Cucamonga. He’s now with High-A Great Lakes