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Thinking Outside The Box

I had this mostly written before Julio Urías took the mound.  This was more reminiscent of 2022 Julio.  He looks more comfortable to being able to get through 6.0 IP.  And with this pitching staff, that may be all you need.

Julio now has 14.0 consecutive scoreless IP.  He looks more comfortable pitching to contact, and has enough to get the swing and miss when he needs it.

AF/BG’s inability to go out and get a late inning high leverage reliever may become an issue. Did they spend too much time working on an Arenado deal instead of David Robertson?  Probably not, but Robertson was a need.  Or someone similar to Robertson.

The NLDS is going to have potentially three off days for the five game series.

  • 10/7 – Game 1
  • 10/8 – Off Day
  • 10/9 – Game 2
  • 10/10 – Off Day
  • 10/11 – Game 3
  • 10/12 – Game 4
  • 10/13 – Off Day
  • 10/14 – Game 5

That requires only 3 starting pitchers.  They will need 4 SP for NLCS and WS.  Traditional 7 game series schedule.  2 games in highest winning percentage city, 3 games in opposition, and 2 more at the original city.

Kershaw will be starting on Thursday and should get a total of 10 starts before the season ends.  He has the ability to get through 7.0 innings, once he is fully lengthened.

Urías will get 10-11 more starts.  He is a 6.0 IP pitcher, IF he gets out of the 1st inning.

Lance Lynn should get 10 starts.  Yes, Lance Lynn gave up 3 HRs to Oakland, but 2 in the 7th.  Thus, in the first 6 innings, he has only allowed 2 HRs in 12.0 innings. And yes, I acknowledge that he has given up more HRs than anyone in MLB.  And I also acknowledge that that could be a problem.

While not Murderer’s Row, all 4 HR hitters who have gone deep against Lynn while as a LAD pitcher, are well above MLB average, 3.1% HR ratio:

  • Gary Sánchez (SD) – 7.7%
  • Zack Gelof (OAK) – 6.0%
  • Brent Rooker (OAK) – 5.1%
  • Justin Diaz – (OAK) 5.0%

For comparison purposes:

  • Max Muncy – 7.0%
  • JDM – 6.7%
  • Mookie Betts – 6.3%

San Francisco’s #2 SP, Alex Cobb, had 3.05 ERA before his start against Oakland, which was #5 in MLB at the time.  After his 5.1 IP against Oakland, his ERA jumped to 3.30 and he allowed 2 HRs, both to Nick Allen, giving him 3 on the year.

Lynn’s ERA with LAD is 2.77 and has 2 quality starts.

What does any of that mean?  Not a lot.  Lynn pounds the strike zone and gives himself a great opportunity to go at least 6.0 IP.  He is not an Ace.  But he is an innings eater, and that should help with the bullpen.  The Dodgers are already switching his pitch mix, and hopefully that will work just like it did with Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney.  He will have another 10 starts to figure it out.

Ryan Yarbrough looks like he has the ability to go 6.0 IP as well.  I think the Dodgers need to let him face the top of the lineup a third time, especially if he is pitching well.  In July, he faced 24, 24,24, and 27 batters, and threw 78, 84, 99, 78 pitches.  With his one appearance with LAD, Ryan faced 16 batters, and threw 63 pitches.  This year he is much better as a starter than as a reliever.  Give him the ball every 6th day.  Let him see what he can do.

Should Tony Gonsolin start?  He is very good for his 1st two IP.

  • 1st inning – 2.5 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, .131 BAA
  • 2nd inning – 2.0 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, .136 BAA

It goes south after that, and continues to go even further south the longer he pitches.

  • Kershaw*
  • Urías*
  • Lynn
  • Yarbrough*/Gonsolin

 

  • Phillips
  • Graterol
  • Brasier
  • Ferguson*
  • Vesia*
  • Kelly
  • Gonsolin/Yarbrough*
  • Miller
  • Grove/Sheehan

 

  • *LHP

I think Gonsolin would be better to come in as a reliever, but if Yarbrough starts, that will be 3 LHSP for the playoffs.  I am not fond of an opener in  playoff games, but Gonsolin was the opener in 2020 WS Game 6, and that turned out just fine.   I just would not feel confident with asking Gonsolin to try 4.0 or more IP.

There are some unknowns:  Walker Buehler (IL), Ryan Pepiot (Minors), Blake Treinen (IL), Shelby Miller (IL), Gavin Stone (Minors) and Bryan Hudson/Victor Gonzalez (should Ferguson or Vesia falter).  I do not expect Daniel Hudson or J.P. Feyereisen this year.

The Dodgers are loaded with options.  They do have 4 who can go 6.0 innings, and then have multiple 2 inning pitchers to get to the 9th  or 3 innings to finish the 9th.  You no longer have to look at 3 one inning pitchers.

You do not have to be traditional once you get to the playoffs.  The Dodgers have the tools to be able to think outside the box.  Will they?

 

 

08-08-2023 – MiLB Game Summary Report

 

Tacoma Rainiers (Seattle) 12 – OKC Dodgers 9

Tacoma scored 8 off Mike Montgomery in 2.1 IP and the Rainiers raced to a 9-1 lead after 4.0.  OKC put up 5 in the final three innings to make it respectable.

Key Performers:

  • Miguel Vargas – 2-4, 1 BB
  • Pat Valaika – 2-5, 1 run, 1 RBI
  • David Dahl – 2-5, 2 runs, 4 RBI, 2 HR (7)
  • Michael Busch – 1-3, 2 BB, 1 run, 3 RBI, HR (20)
  • Hunter Feduccia – double (17)

Box Score

 

Tulsa Drillers 7 – Amarillo Sod Poodles (Arizona) 4

Tulsa scored 5 in the 4th inning to take a 7-4 lead.  That lead would hold up throughout the game.  4 Tulsa relievers pitched 5.0 scoreless innings.

Diego Cartaya homered in his 3rd consecutive game.

Key Performers:

  • Yusniel Diaz – 3-3, 1 BB, 2 runs, 1 RBI, double (15)
  • Diego Cartaya – 2-4, 1 run, 3 RBI, HR (16)
  • Imanol Vargas – 1-4, 1 run, 3 RBI, HR (14)
  • Josh Stowers – double (7)

Box Score

 

West Michigan WhiteCaps (Detroit) 6 – Great Lakes Loons 4

The WhiteCaps put up 3 early off Ronan Kopp, and 3 late off two relievers.

Key Performers:

  • Taylor Young – 2-5, 1 run, 3 RBI, double (17), HR (5)
  • Griffin Lockwood-Powell – 2-4, 1 run, double 16)
  • Yeiner Fernandez – double (13)

Box Score

 

Inland Empire 66ers (LAA) – 6 – Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 5

The 66ers scored 5 unearned runs in the first off Gabe Emmet.  RC  scored 2 in the 8th and 1 in the 9th, to get close.  RC left the tying run on base.

Key Performers:

  • Josue De Paula – 2-5, 1 run
  • Joe Vetrano – 2-4, 1 run, 2 RBI
  • Luis Rodriguez – 1-3, 1 BB, 1 run, double (10)

Box Score

 

 

 

 

 

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Dionysus

Jeff, any thoughts on the Korean pitcher we signed? His delivery is pretty violent and it looks like he’s already thrown a million max-effort breaking balls. We need to get him on a program and clean things up a little bit. This is the AF version of signing Ohtani 🙂

Bluto

I think Ohtani is going to be the AF version of signing Ohtani.

I read elsewhere that CT3 will be on the trading block this summer! I find this funny. Can he have any value?

Oldbear48

I am sure you meant this winter. Summer is almost over, and the trading deadline is past. I think it is possible he is traded. Hernandez is a cheaper version of CT3.

Dionysus

Just put it on your LADT expense account!

Badger

I’m an inside the box baseball reader. That is, inside the box score. Started that very early and still do it. And that box has been telling me the same thing for several months – this team needs to score and I don’t see that changing as the long season wears on and arms get even more frazzled in September.

I do see some possible support close by. Pepiot will absorb some of the pressure. Stone, Grove and Sheehan will help and I still see Knack possibly getting a start or two.

Jang. I’ve been watching video and listening to various bloggers offering opinion. Ohtani? Not from what I’ve been reading. He’s not as big and nobody appears to be talking about his bat. I would think there’s some mechanical comparisons to Buehler. The Dodgers will move him along slowly.

Scott Andes

a lot of bulk guys

Dionysus

I think we could see Knack get a start or two if we can find the roster space. And possibly one more guy [like Hurt or Frasso] to test out for the postseason bullpen.

Dionysus

Fair

Oldbear48

I am against the Dodgers going all in on Ohtani. My reasoning is simple. I know they have enough salary coming off of the books this winter, and I also know Ohtani is the big prize everyone is talking about. He is a two-way player. He fills two spots, a starting pitcher and a DH. But at what cost? He is a very good starting pitcher, but he is not an Ace. His value comes as a designated hitter. Many will argue that he is an Ace. He does strike out a lot of hitters, and his ERA is decent. Last year he made 28 starts, his ERA was a run lower. He has made 21 so far this season. He is pitching on the same rest he did in Japan, roughly every 6 days. Now the six-man rotation may eventually be the norm in baseball, but at this point it is not. Over his career he has averaged 5.6 innings a game. That is a lot of bullpen time. This season he has been a little better averaging 5.9. The Angels have played 115 games. With 47 left, he probably has maybe 6 or 7 starts left. Depending of course on his problem he has been having with numbness in his finger on his pitching hand. So, he is pretty much a lock to get to 200 K’s. He has 160 right now. He has given up 18 homers this year, almost one per game, so that is not all that bad. But the question remains, how long can he do both at an All-Star level? I think if they were to get three years of pitching at this level with no injuries, they would be extremely lucky. He to me is just not worth the monetary risk. I say use the money to fill more than just those two holes.

Badger

I agree. I would add we are seeing Ohtani in his prime right now. I really doubt he will get better after age 30. He could be really good for 5 more years, but 10 WAR good? Not likely. Would love to have him, but at what cost? Front loaded contract? Maybe.

Singing the Blue

Regarding your free agent pitcher list, I’m all in favor of going after Yamamoto, but I don’t see AF giving him a 7-8 year deal like Tanaka got. He might go 4 or 5 with a higher AAV which might appeal to Yoshi. That would allow him to establish himself over here and still be a free agent again at age 30.

Nola, Burnes, Woodruff and Glasnow all sound good to me and we have all of those young pitchers in the pipeline that a low-payroll team might find interesting.

I would say no to Snell. He’s had some great results and some poor results, tends to be a bit injury prone and doesn’t go far into games. Overall, I’d let someone else have him.

Just a guess, but I think Julio is gone. I expect to see him wind up with SD, Az, SF, Texas or Houston. I’m sure the NY teams will offer him a good chunk but somehow don’t see him wanting to live in a large east coast city.

Oldbear48

I read where his team option is only 10 million Jeff according to baseball reference. Ahh I just saw it could go to 14 based on plate appearances. So far though, he has only played in 92 games.

Badger

Just short of 6’3”, just south of 200 pounds. Good size. But still, put him in bubble wrap for now.

He goes on the 40 as soon as possible, somebody gets moved. The organization just got stronger.

Singing the Blue

By “as soon as possible” do you mean in a couple of years or next week? Am I missing something or would adding him to the 40-man now be a waste of a roster space since he won’t be eligible for the Rule 5 for a long time and I’m sure they aren’t planning to add him to this year’s playoff roster.

Badger

No, you’re right. Within 5 years. He will be pitching in the bigs before that. My mind was elsewhere.

Fred Vogel

RIP Robbie Robertson

OhioDodger

I think we have all the pieces we need in the box. Now we need to take them out of the box and fit them together in a way that works. It really comes down to the players executing when they are called upon. The bullpen concerns me the most. But I think it will look a lot different in late September and October.

Dionysus

Yeah, Roberts [& AF] will have to do some of their best work to find a mix if relievers that can shut the door in the playoffs. The good news is all bullpens are fallible [see Baltimore last night] and maybe our offense does enough to cover it up.

Off the top of my head, I can see a mix of the following closing out games in October:

1. Phillips
2. Ferguson
3. Kelly [big if true]
4. Graterol
5. Miller, Pepiot or Sheehan in relief

OhioDodger

How about those Cubs.

Dionysus

What did they do?

OhioDodger

They are contending for a wild card spot and the NL Central title. Who saw that coming?

Last edited 8 months ago by OhioDodger
Dionysus

Oh, yeah I didn’t think they would either.

OhioDodger

I hope we pass on Ohtani. Too much money, too may years for a player 30 years old. If he was 26 it might be worth it. But he only has 2 or 3 years of his prime left. Please say no AF. Just look at the history of long term, high dollar contracts and how they have played out over the years.

Dionysus

I’d be ok with him.

Not my money.

Seems like he’d increase the value of the franchise regardless of his AAV.

Dionysus

Scott, you may be right about SD

Scott Andes

I don’t think they are a factor this year.

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