Unless you have been hibernating in a cave, you now know that Trevor Bauer’s 324 game suspension has been reduced by 130 games to 194. The league office said in a prepared statement:
“Today, the neutral arbitrator selected by MLB and the MLBPA affirmed that Trevor Bauer violated Major League Baseball’s Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy.”
Thus, while Bauer insisted that he was not guilty of any sexual abuse, and that the entire suspension should be lifted, the arbitration panel upheld the Commissioner’s decision to suspend Bauer, just not for the length of time he was suspended for. What did the panel learn?
Bauer served 144 games of that suspension during the 2022 season, beginning April 29, the date Commissioner Rob Manfred initially suspended him.
Bauer will be reinstated immediately, and the Dodgers will now have 14 days to decide whether to place him back onto the roster or simply release him. The Dodgers are not expected to release him. It is also possible that Trevor Bauer will bet on himself and opt out and receive a $15MM buyout. Also not so likely, but still possible.
The decision was largely made by the neutral arbitrator, Martin Scheinman, who was approved by both the Players Association and the league. The other two members of the three-member panel were an MLB selected appointee and one selected by the MLBPA.
While Bauer is immediately reinstated and able to pitch immediately, he will not be paid for the first 50 games, through May 23, 2023. He will earn his pay equitably over 112 games.
Additionally, the arbitrator will dock his salary for the first 50 games or 30.8642% of his salary. In actual dollars, his salary will be reduced by $9,876,544 to $22,123,456. That is based on his actual salary of $32MM. For AAV purposes, Dodgers payroll will be reduced by $10,493,828, for a Bauer hit of $21,506,172. Those are my calculations based upon the information I have to work with. Based upon Cot’s calculations, the LAD AAV payroll is $199,166,667 before JDM and Bauer. JDM and Bauer will add $31,506,172. Lo and behold, the Dodgers 2023 AAV is $230,672,839, or miraculously a little more than $2K south of the CBT threshold. Imagine that. Somehow, someway, LAD execs had to know what the ruling was going to be.
I would not expect any more additions to the roster unless there is a roster reduction for the same $$$$.
While I am sure that the Dodgers have already been working on whatever they plan to do with Bauer, it is possible that we will not learn what those plans are before January 6. There will then be approximately 5 weeks between the deadline for the LAD decision and ST. Will Bauer be at Camelback (in a Dodgers uniform) when pitchers and catchers report on February 14? I find it hard to believe that the Dodgers would trade Bauer to a contending team, and there is virtually no reason for a non-contending team to acquire Bauer. So I fully expect Bauer to report to Camelback (as a Dodger) when pitchers and catchers report.
In a further statement by the League office:
“After an exhaustive review of the available evidence the neutral arbitrator upheld an unpaid suspension of 194 games. As part of the decision, the arbitrator reinstated Mr. Bauer effectively immediately, with a loss of pay covering the 144 games he was suspended during the 2022 season. In addition, the arbitrator docked Bauer’s salary for the first 50 games of the 2023 season (i.e., the period covering March 30, 2023 to May 23, 2023). While we believe a longer suspension was warranted, MLB will abide by the neutral arbitrator’s decision, which upholds baseball’s longest-ever active player suspension for sexual assault or domestic violence.
We understand this process was difficult for the witnesses involved and we thank them for their participation. Due to the collectively bargained confidentiality provisions of the joint program, we are unable to provide further details at this time.”
The Dodgers also put out a statement:
With Trevor Bauer reinstated from restricted list, Dodgers have 14 days to activate or release him. https://t.co/4WELMwsUyh
— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) December 23, 2022
Then this from the Bauer camp:
Statement from Trevor Bauer's reps: "While we are pleased that Mr. Bauer has been reinstated immediately, we disagree that any discipline should have been imposed. That said, Mr. Bauer looks forward to his return to the field, where his goal remains to help his team win a WS."
— Mike DiGiovanna (@MikeDiGiovanna) December 23, 2022
Twitter isn’t shy with their comments from both sides of Bauer situation. Half want him to go directly into the HOF, while the other half want him burned at the stake. The Dodgers will do whatever is best for the team as a whole. I would not be surprised at all if the LAD veterans were polled as to what they think should be done. All at the Happiest Time of the Year!
If Bauer opts out he gets 15 million. I could easily see him signing an incentive laden contract with a base salary of at least 5-7 million. By opting out Bauer can control his own destiny.
What are the options?
1. We keep him and play him
2. He opts out for $15 mil and finds another team
MLB, Korea, Japan
3. We release him, pay his salary and he finds
another team
4. We somehow trade him
5. We release him,nobody else wants him,we pay
him to sit around and Twitter all day.
He should take option #2. I like #2 and #4.
My guess is the Dodgers will give in to the pressure and walk away. I have mixed feelings on the issue, I know from my reading and private conversations many people do. I’d let him pitch. But that’s me.
I grew up believing “innocent until proven guilty” but I learned the hard way that’s complete bullshit. In the court of opinion Bauer is guilty of conduct unbecoming a Dodger, so, as Plaschke clearly says morning, the Dodgers will release him and probably not wait until January 6th.
If he pitches I project 2-3 WAR for him. 3 wins probably won’t make the difference in the West. But it certainly could. SF is an open minded city. They could use a 3 Wins pitcher. Especially one we’re paying.
I will be sorely disappointed if the Dodgers release him and he ends up pitching for another team on our nickel. The man committed no crime. He served his time.
The Dodgers got out of the Bauer contract cheaply enough. Signing him was a mistake and compounded by the amount of the contract. You can’t lose something you never had. A twenty-one and a half million dollar mistake in Baseball money, like in Monopoly money, is easier to chalk up to a learning experience and then move on.
My vote is to either trade him or release him. Hopefully he will opt out. The Dodgers have 14 days to make a decision. Give Bauer as many of those days to explore a contract with another team.
Trade him to the Mets or the Asstros.
We don’t know for sure that if the Dodgers release Bauer any of the other 29 teams would sign him.
But one thing I can guarantee you, if he is unable to hook on with another MLB team, he will absolutely bring a suit against baseball for collusion.
I’m sure the owners are aware of this and I’m also sure there have been back channel conversations between owners and Manfred. What those talks have resulted in, I have no clue, but this could still get very ugly.
I got a question for the algorithmatics in the crowd – how does the recent (prefix) “astro” signings effect $/WAR figures going forward. I got it at $9m+. How far off am I?
Bauer took to social media not long after the decision. I found it interesting that he said he was anxious to be back and to pitch for the fans and in a Stadium again. No mention was made of the Dodgers at all. I think he and the Dodgers will have a face to face before the 14 days are up. Releasing him and eating the money is not a fiscally sound idea. The man was never charged, nor was he convicted of anything.
In better, non-Bauer, news Baseball Prospectus has their review of the Dodgers system.
It’s a paid site, and it’s one that I don’t pay for. But I can crib some overviews:
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/79544/2023-prospects-los-angeles-dodgers-top-prospects/
Co-author Jeffrey Paternostro writes on Twitter:
The Dodgers system is maybe not quite as good as the Orioles system but it’s staggeringly deep in terms of potential above-average major leaguers. As good as this system is, it’s incredibly boring to research and write as they have optimized player dev to the point you feel like a grizzled basketball coach complaining that no one shoots mid-range jumpers anymore. In this metaphor the mid-range jumper is “have a BB/9 rate under 4” I guess.
The other co-author, the ludicrously funny and great Craig Goldstein writes:
Today on @baseballpro: The Los Angeles Dodgers Top Prospects. The first list to extend past 20 names due to the depth in the system. It lacks the Orioles’ star power at the top but has a ton of Top 101 names.
Eric Stephen, as always, has a great write-up:
https://www.truebluela.com/2022/12/23/23513520/dodgers-prospects-diego-cartaya-miguel-vargas-bobby-miller-gavin-stone-baseball-prospectus
Eric quotes about Nick Frasso:
“Like Stone, he was mostly a reliever in college, so there may be further gains to come if he can stay healthy and stick as a starter in 2023,” Paternostro wrote. “That could make him one of the best pitching prospects in baseball this time next year. Or it just might make him the Dodgers eighth-inning guy by August.”
Daulton Varsho to Toronto for catcher prospect Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. This trade made too much sense. Too teams trading from their overstock of a position, Toronto needing a LH bat for the OF, Arizona needing a catching prospect, and Arizona also needing a RH hitting OF. This was a good trade of ML players.
If Bauer does decide to opt out, the Dodgers would only owe him $10,370,370. He only gets paid 112/162 of $15MM. So he is going to need another team to pony up a little bit north of $11MM to match what he will earn with the Dodgers in 2023.
Varsho traded to the Blue Jays for two players, Guerriel is one of them.
Craig Kimbrel signs with Philadelphia for 1 year and $10MM
I asked a question yesterday, didn’t get an answer, very disappointing, so I ran the numbers myself. I used fangraphs projected WAR for Correa over the length of his contract.
The answer is 9.375
In the Times this morning it was suggested that a couple of nameless Dodgers were not quoted saying the team does not want Bauer back. I suspect there is a gag order on the players so we aren’t going to know what anyone in the organization thinks until next year.
Going to be 79 here today.
Bah humbug everyone!
Mets now expressing concerns about Correa’s physical. Seems the Giants had cause to worry. There is some question about his surgically repaired leg. Story on MLBTR.
Bradley Zimmer is not the last CF in the bargain bin that the Dodgers have snatched up hoping for that breakout. They also just signed former SFG CF, Steven Duggar to a MiLB contract.
It does not appear that the Dodgers are as enamored with James Outman as the Dodgers fans are. Even Fabian Ardaya (The Athletic LAD beat writer) is hesitant to consider Outman making the roster. Specifically what he said:
“Outman will get some run in the big leagues this year, be it coming up midseason like he did last year or breaking camp with the big club if the Dodgers don’t make any substantive outfield additions this winter. He’s someone the Dodgers feel could handle center if needed, but an Opening Day platoon there of Outman and Trayce Thompson wouldn’t be ideal defensively.”
Not a ringing endorsement.
Per Jack Harris of the LA Times, the timing of the Bauer Ruling caught the Dodgers by surprise.
I am sure that the Dodgers were commenting about the ruling being released right before the holidays. I cannot believe that this has not been a subject in their meetings with countless options being considered. While I am sure that the execs will communicate during the holidays, that is not nearly as efficient as having everyone sitting at the same table. Mark Walter will be involved in this decision.
Not just the Dodgers, but also the baseball execs from other clubs that may want to trade with LAD for Bauer are also spread out. Those teams also will need to consider the backlash of a potential PR nightmare.
I see a lot of Zoom calls over the next two weeks.